California Chrome's odds?

[sbcaris]

Greyfox: I looked at all the horses in the Derby over the last 10 years from 2004-2013. The ONLY California breds to compete in the KY Derby in that period were Brother Derek in 2006, Bob Black Jack in 2008 and Rousing Sermon in 2012.

So in 7 of the last 10 years there were NO California bred runners.

In 2006 Brother Derek looked good and had a 108 Beyer fig in the SA Derby.

In 2008 Bob Black Jack had never run over a dirt track.

In 2012 Rousing Sermon finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby with a Beyer figure in the 80s.

So in the last 10 years only one contender that was bred in California looked like a good chance.

If you multiply 3 starters every 10 years then you get only 15 starters that were Cal breds in the last 50 years.

How many starters were Cal Breds? Not too many. How many Cal bred starters were bonafide contenders? My guess-- not too many.

I am not saying that California Chrome is definitely going to win the Derby but I would not consider the fact that he is a Cal Bred to be held against him. Good horses can come from anywhere.

[sam i am]

who else is going to draw the money...I don't see a solid #2 in the odds...
example look at the futures.
he was the favorite ( not including field) tied @ 9-1 with Cairo prince (who finished 4th in FD) and might not make it into the derby.
next came Social inclusion @11-1 who lost and won't make it in.
then was Candy boy and Hoppertunity @ 13 and 15-1 and CC trounced both of them. then Samraat @ 17-1 who lost....I just don't see who is going to take any money from him...Tapiture was 15-1 in the futures if he runs lights out in ARK maybe he can be 2nd in the betting???

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

If you multiply 3 starters every 10 years then you get only 15 starters that were Cal breds in the last 50 years.

How many starters were Cal Breds? Not too many. How many Cal bred starters were bonafide contenders? My guess-- not too many.

I am not saying that California Chrome is definitely going to win the Derby but I would not consider the fact that he is a Cal Bred to be held against him. Good horses can come from anywhere.

Yes. Good horses can come from anywhere, but history has suggested that they don't.
How many were bred in Alaska or Idaho that won??
Northern Dancer was bred in Canada.
But I can't recall any others off the top of my head from there though since he won the Derby.

That fact is even if there were 15 starters from California over the last 50 years, none of them won.
Historically, California, for whatever reason, has not produced the best horses.
Maybe California Chrome will turn that around and give a huge boost to that State's encouragement of breeding.
But we're talking odds at the gate here.
When the public lays down their money, I don't think that they will make a Cal bred favorite in the Derby at odds lower than 5/2.

[sbcaris]

Greyfox: I think your right regarding the odds on California Chrome. Bodemeister in 2012 had the highest last out Beyer fig in the field with a 108. The next highest was Daddys nose Best with a 100 Beyer fig in his last. Despite the big difference, Bodemeister, who looked dominant went off as the 4-1 favorite. In recent times the favorite goes off at around 5-1 in the Derby.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Greyfox: I think your right regarding the odds on California Chrome. Bodemeister in 2012 had the highest last out Beyer fig in the field with a 108. The next highest was Daddys nose Best with a 100 Beyer fig in his last. Despite the big difference, Bodemeister, who looked dominant went off as the 4-1 favorite. In recent times the favorite goes off at around 5-1 in the Derby.

We agree on that.
California Chrome has looked very very impressive in his races and undoubtedly he is a good horse. No question about that.
However, with respect to odds, my guess is that he will be higher than 5/2 and maybe in the 3-1 to 4-1 range as the favorite.

[Smarty Cide]

if i can get 3-1 or greater he gets my 250 dollar win bet... the only thing thats stops him would be a bad trip

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

if i can get 3-1 or greater he gets my 250 dollar win bet... the only thing thats stops him would be a bad trip

or the fact that he won't be running on the tarmac at Santa Anita!

[Smarty Cide]

dont be a hater... the sport needs a super star... he has that potential

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

if i can get 3-1 or greater he gets my 250 dollar win bet... the only thing thats stops him would be a bad trip

what makes you think you will get 3-1 on that horse?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

what makes you think you will get 3-1 on that horse?

I'd say he's very likely to get it.
He may be lower if the clockers drop their jaws at Churchill,
but they've been doing that about this colt for some time now.

Several UK bookmakers have him at 4-1 right now -
but you lose your bet if he scratches.

I just don't see east coasters rushing to bet him,
especially now since the Wood speed figure is higher than the SA Derby.

Don't forget, also, that if a horse wins one of the remaining trials with ease,
that particular horse will take money in the Derby.
People have short memories.

All things considered, California Chrome is unlikely to go off below 3-1.

[magwell]

Does anybody really care 4 weeks before this race if he will be 2-1 or 3-1 ? if you like him then bet him, if not dont, unbelievable

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by magwell

Does anybody really care 4 weeks before this race if he will be 2-1 or 3-1 ? if you like him then bet him, if not dont, unbelievable

Odds always intrigue me.
It's just a hypothetical exercise.

It means a lot more to Mike Battaglia.

[TMQ]

If Bayern runs the Ark Derby and wins he will take a lot of money away from California Chrome. I think people will be cautious on CC because he has only raced in Cali. Churchill has been anything but a speed track the last ten years, and I believe he needs a FAST track to run his best race.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I'd say he's very likely to get it.
He may be lower if the clockers drop their jaws at Churchill,
but they've been doing that about this colt for some time now.

Several UK bookmakers have him at 4-1 right now -
but you lose your bet if he scratches.

I just don't see east coasters rushing to bet him,
especially now since the Wood speed figure is higher than the SA Derby.

Don't forget, also, that if a horse wins one of the remaining trials with ease,
that particular horse will take money in the Derby.
People have short memories.

All things considered, California Chrome is unlikely to go off below 3-1.

The clockers won't drop their jaws, he won't have a work on the track.
The Wood figure is lower than the SA Derby: 104-107
This horse will be THE story on NBC.
My feeling is the odds are going to be exactly like Big Brown.

[HuggingTheRail]

In my mind, the over/under is about 3.... I am going over at 3.3-1