*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[headhawg]

The member was IrishLadStable, and I think his avatar was indeed Mr. Kranepool.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Triple Nickle

Ed Kranepool maybe

It's Kranepool...https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/dcsAA...Yxq/s-l300.jpg

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by headhawg

The member was IrishLadStable, and I think his avatar was indeed Mr. Kranepool.

His latest post...http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...16&postcount=1

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Wish you would have called me, Vinnie...been working on finding the most financially efficient way to play these horizontals. I believe the most profitable (if, in fact any of these are long-term money makers)--will be Parx, Belmont, Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Tampa.

Most of the other tracks, the handle usually isn't very large. The way I came up with to play these smaller venues, is to cut the $27 ticket down to $8.00. The best way to do this--is to use JUST the top-2 ranked horses, eliminating altogether the 3rd choice. This gives you an $8 ticket at 50cents a throw.

Still...I didn't play my own method at Mountaineer tonight. Had the ticket all ready to go--at the last second I hit "clear". I had visions of hitting the pick-4...for a whopping $12 payoff. I wasn't going to risk even $8 to win maybe 10 bucks.

Wouldn't you know it? The very first time with the 2x2x2x2 ticket, it wins. I was going to see if you wanted to play that ticket, Vinnie.



As you can see, the 3rd pick was eliminated in the 4 races. I like playing an $8 ticket at the smaller pools. If it only pays $20 or $30...I can live with that. Just don't go thinking you've hit the motherlode--You may go a week without another win.

-NCG

I appreciate it Greg. Unfortunately, I have had my Best Hits ever in the P4 with at least playing a $27.00 ticket. The 3x3x3x2 in some sort of amalgamation. But, honestly, I have had a PIC 4 for $2 bucks and a $4 dollar P5 (each at 50 cents) that paid nearly 1k combined using simply your Top Power number looking for gaps in between, etc.. You just have to be right, however, this game is one tough son of a gun at times. What is the saying "You can beat a race; but, you can't beat the races". When you are playing on a fairly limited budget you just have to be right. As we all know, there are going to be plenty of times when you are not.

[NorCalGreg]

I hear ya, bruh...I cold-punched a pick-4 once. I like to look at the "Best Bets" in Platinum, mainly to see what's there.
Anyway, think it was Turf Paradise--clicked on the BB button, and up popped one horse each from the last 4 races. I couldn't let that go - it was just so symmetrical and perfect. Like a signal, or an omen from above. See, this never happens like that...no way it could be a coincidence or random chance.

So I go ahead and punch it straight up for $10. Any more would just be foolish, since wagering that amount would pay in the thousands if it came in.

LOL I'm trying to think of how to end this story...I'll just tell the truth. The selection in race 1 of the late pick-4 broke down, eliminating me quickly. I turned my comp off and didn't bother watching anymore.
Here's the kicker--the next three all won, and if I had the foresight, gumption, cajones, whatever, to also play a pick-3 as well, I would have won my thousand dollar payoff.

Speaking of thousand dollar payoffs--our EXOTIC BETS! pick-4 streak CONTINUED at Parx...giving us 5 days in a row. There was a slight hitch in our giddy-up...the p-4 costs $27 each--the winner paid $36.




I post these so you can see I do play my selections regularly. I don't post my losing tickets because, well...who wants to see them? I think we've all seen enough of those.
-NCG

[sharkey11]

A lot can be learned from the losing ones as well NCG . but then theres only so much space to post here i guess any way i respect your privacy and keep up the bad work oops good work LOL

[NorCalGreg]

Mike has been keeping an eye on LAD, and has this report:

Here at Louisiana Downs the power # are ahead of Bris by a wide margin, as expected.

Power #'s 58 races-- 15 winners-- for a total payout of $93.40 ($6.23 average mutual)

Bris # 60 races-- 9 winners-- for a total payout of $33.00 ($3.67 average mutual)


Wonder what a 4-1 minimum would like like, at that track?

[oughtoh]

Is that just the highest power number in each race?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Is that just the highest power number in each race?

Yep, Ed...just the top Platinum Power vs Top Bris Prime and nothing else.


Someone once checked a category called "Top Platinum Power-All Sprints" for the Tampa meet. It was surely a fluke,...but a bet on every top Platinum horse in sprints, produced a profit.

Aberrations show up a lot- especially with smaller samples.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

A lot can be learned from the losing ones as well NCG . but then theres only so much space to post here i guess any way i respect your privacy and keep up the bad work oops good work LOL

Here ya go, Sharkey. What did you learn from these losing tickets? Besides stay the hell out of Belmont

[NorCalGreg]

I mentioned doing research on well, basically what works where?
Amazing how completely different one track in Arizona can be from a track in say, Florida. Yes they're mostly subtle differences...but the differences are magnified where it counts the most--at the windows.

Anyway that's a whole 'nuther topic, best for another day. Even more amazing are the payoffs from one track to another.
For a quick example here's GGX's pays for their late horizontals:

$0.50 Pick-3 (3/5/2) Paid $9.05 (3OF3)
$0.50 Pick-4 (3/3/5/2) Paid $37.95 (4OF4)
$0.50 Pick-5 (3/3/3/5/2) Paid $199.00 (5OF5)
$0.20 Pick-6 (2/3/3/3/5/2) Paid $138.50 (6OF6)
** Pick-6 Carryover $58,935 **

Not knowing any better, you would naturally assume almost all favorites won-to produce payoffs that low.
Well you would be wrong...there was a $13 winner in the last race, 3 $8.00 winners, along with the winning favs in the other 3 races. If I had that pick-4 ticket, I would expect-- at minimum, twice that. You can expect that regularly in the smaller pools, so why bother?

[green80]

Wonder what a 4-1 minimum would like like, at that track?[/B][/QUOTE]

At this point I have 11 bets at > 4/1 and a +20% ROI

[NorCalGreg]

Who's up for some Santa Anita action today? This is handicapped using top-3 Power. For exotics I either the use Power or Ability Ratings, or a combination of the two:





[B]I like MISS OBRIEN in the 4th...I'll key that one in an exacta with ,

[horseplayer]

MY ARLINGTON 1916 -FILES FOR JUST #1 POWER

53 PLAYS - 13 WINNERS - $126.00 (THERE WAS A $41.20 WINNER)

[green80]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Is that just the highest power number in each race?

yes