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Old 02-04-2023, 01:46 PM   #61
Robert Fischer
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Post G3 Robert B. Lewis S.

Arabian Lion, Newgate, and Worcester are nice 3yos.

Should be a terrible betting race.

There's one thing to watch for; How short a price will Arabian Lion be?

Either fastest or 2nd fastest to Newgate, and aside from fitness and practice, you want this race to delight Zedan.
𓂀
Now , there will be some fan money on Worcester ( mature, handsome stretch runner ).
And, the failure in Los Al Fut. darkens form for Arabian Lion.

Read the double and p3 pools, and pass unless Arabian lion looks like 3/5 or greater.
3/5 is never great and only about 'fair' here.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-04-2023 at 01:51 PM.
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Old 02-04-2023, 01:53 PM   #62
Andy Asaro
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Beyond believe that the Baffert camp would go this low. Disgrace


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Old 02-04-2023, 04:01 PM   #63
Robert Fischer
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"I don't know"

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Read the double and p3 pools, and pass unless Arabian lion looks like 3/5 or greater.
3/5 is never great and only about 'fair' here.
Newgate is favored in will-pays over the Arabian Lion.

I am shocked.

However this is not a bet and let me explain.
When you do not understand the money, you don't understand the race.
Either Arabian line is actually a huge overlay, Or his chances of winning a much different than what I expected.
I thought the 3-5 would be a fair price and he may go off is I even money...
Put the key here is that I did not expect the money to be like this therefore I did not understand the betting pools. This means it is a pass. I'm not here to gamble.
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Old 02-04-2023, 04:07 PM   #64
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If I was a guest player then this would be a huge bet on #1 Arabian lion.

For me Guessing is not Part of my strategy.

I don't understand the odds.

Is the public really that fooled by the futurity stinker?

Or is Arabian Lion much worse than i thought ( wires or tracks easy win today fashionable owner in a paid work) ?

Don't know don't bet unless You are getting more like 50-1 o

Not 2/1
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Old 02-10-2023, 10:52 PM   #65
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Going back to this past summer, all graded stakes races for males on the main track have the profile of 2+ Baffert horses, one O'Neill, & 1-2 others.

Most of O'Neill's entrants in those races (DM Futurity, American Pharoah, Bob Hope, Los Al Futurity) were maidens. In fact, they still are maidens (Odonata, Mixto, Tall Boy). John Shirreffs raced the maiden Skinner twice in graded stakes company. His nominee for the Robert Lewis (did not enter) is also a maiden.
Well, with respect to the O'Neill maidens, Tall Boy ended up winning the UAE 2000 Guineas today so I guess the CA 3yo crop isn't all that bad.

Skinner is in a SA maiden race this weekend so maybe he can keep the ball rolling & make those CA 2yo Grade 1s into "later blooming" key races.

Unfortunately, the Lewis winner Newgate was injured in that choreographed public workout & is off the Derby trail.
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Old 02-27-2023, 11:45 AM   #66
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but I can see the argument that figuring out which stablemate will be sent is just another handicapping consideration. Still, one might suggest that there's a greater issue at hand here if horses are so consolidated amongst top trainers that this has become a relatively common bit of calculus.
I keep it simple and bet the longest odds horse. IMO, Baffert is the king of the uncoupled entry long odds horse.
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