Thread for Russian Attack on Ukraine - Page 88 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TJDave

Don’t understand how that’s possible.

Russia has the largest military in the world.

2,000,000 vs 200,000

Russia is fighting missing both hands and a foot.

Russia only has about 400,000 professional soldiers across all services (includes technical roles). Russian casualties estimated to be north of 80,000 at this point.

Ukrainian losses are closely guarded but likely 1/2 to 2/3 of that. Not nothing but motivation and morale quickly come in to play.

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 08:34 AM

3rd photo is the most important one.

Ukrainians have reached the south side of Kupyansk. Izyum, and the principal Russian force there will be encircled if it isn't already.

This is becoming a route.

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Dumbest timeline confirmed...

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 08:49 AM

A more up to date map of what's going on to the North of the city.

I take lots of these visuals with a grain of salt as soldiers can only "occupy" the dirt they stand on or can shoot to but these developments are being widely corroborated.

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Dumbest timeline confirmed...

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 12:24 PM

With Ukrainians on the Ozil, most bridges along it blown, and fighting being reported to the south the encirclement is definitely completed.

Russian Units in Izyum can either attempt a breakout, surrender, or be annihilated. If they're mostly LDR/DNR troops the first is impossible.

Edit) Pretty good animation of what has transpired in the last 48 hours. Izyum is the orange circle in the south Kupyansk in the top right. The Ozil the river boundary along the east side of the map.

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Dumbest timeline confirmed...

Last edited by elysiantraveller; 09-09-2022 at 12:33 PM.

PaceAdvantage · 09-09-2022, 01:49 PM

What does this mean in the grand scheme of things?

You've been silent a LONG TIME in this thread, which I can only take to mean things weren't going so well for AFU all that time...

What's the big picture look like? I've lost interest, much like everyone else in this thread so I'm not all that caught up.

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What does this mean in the grand scheme of things?

You've been silent a LONG TIME in this thread, which I can only take to mean things weren't going so well for AFU all that time...

What's the big picture look like? I've lost interest, much like everyone else in this thread so I'm not all that caught up.

It's means that Russian operations in the north and east of Ukraine will be soundly defeated. Russia will not be able to resume the conflict in the area as Izyum represents the key road and rail head for the region. It is where the bulk of Russian forces operate out of.

I was mostly silent because the conflict was largely frozen with not much happening. Literally the lines have barely moved since the end of May. Ukraine experienced some successes around Kherson and Russia retook some lost ground around Kharkiv.

Wars are fought via offensives and counteroffensives and neither side was really launching anything until now. Those types of things make it easy to lose interest... I stopped paying a lot of attention myself.

That said; regardless of where anyone stands in terms of politics or their views on the conflict... the Ukrainians are putting on a show right now that is simply incredible.

They're going to be stopped by logistics at some point but War Colleges are going to study this one for a looong time.

PaceAdvantage · 09-09-2022, 03:28 PM

Interesting...I thought Russia had its most success in the east and now they are losing it? Pretty insane.

davew · 09-09-2022, 03:52 PM

they should continue to Moscow and take out Putin

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Interesting...I thought Russia had its most success in the east and now they are losing it? Pretty insane.

They enjoyed a lot of success in the south and east during and after the failed Kyiv operation.

Post 916 I mention Sloviansk which is where the Ukrainians finally halted their advances back in April. Realistically they had no choice but to stop them there or the rest of their forces in the east would have been cut off.

Most of the territory in the east though that is used to show Russian gains on maps has been contested since 2014 so its a bit misleading.

What's happening right now is a large Ukrainian push north and southeast out of Kharkiv. It's advancing at a lightening pace having already cut off large amounts of Russian forces.

What's likely to happen over the next week or so is Ukraine will reestablish the front along the Oskil River. I think there logistics will basically run out there anyway. They don't need to cross the river as their forces in the east can eventually swing up from the south if they'd like.

Any Russian forces in Ukraine west of the Oskil will either flee, be captured, or eliminated.

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davew

they should continue to Moscow and take out Putin

I would imagine after this weekend they'll be in the mop-up phase and thoroughly exhausted.

Probably no major fighting in the area until the winter after the mud freezes.

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 08:56 PM

Forbes: Ukrainian Army is Surrounding 10,000 Russian Troopsin the East

PaceAdvantage · 09-09-2022, 10:15 PM

What am I looking at here? UA forces driving through the middle of Russian forces? How is that an enviable position to be in for those forces on the "front line?"

They are completely engulfed...why would they drive in that deep and narrow?

Unless I'm reading this wrong:

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davew · 09-09-2022, 10:29 PM

Doug Macgregor on Tucker said things are going very poorly for Ukraine. Ukraine has been focused on recapturing territory while Russia has focused on destroying Ukrainian forces.

When equipment from the world shows up dor Ukraine, only 30-40% makes it to the forces, the rest lost to corruption.

Macgregor is one of many Americans on Ukraine's 'kill list' (no wonder the demoncrats love Ukraine's 'democracy')

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What am I looking at here? UA forces driving through the middle of Russian forces? How is that an enviable position to be in for those forces on the "front line?"

They are completely engulfed...why would they drive in that deep and narrow?

Unless I'm reading this wrong:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...16844795891715

That's how modern mechanized warfare is fought.

Simple blitzkrieg stuff. Armor and heavy mechanized breaks into the rear layers of defense in depth and regular forces follow in behind.

Here is a different example;

elysiantraveller · 09-09-2022, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davew

Doug Macgregor on Tucker said things are going very poorly for Ukraine. Ukraine has been focused on recapturing territory while Russia has focused on destroying Ukrainian forces.

When equipment from the world shows up dor Ukraine, only 30-40% makes it to the forces, the rest lost to corruption.

Macgregor is one of many Americans on Ukraine's 'kill list' (no wonder the demoncrats love Ukraine's 'democracy')

The guy who frequently had gone on RT and openly supported the Russian invasion?