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Old 08-14-2021, 07:27 PM   #61
thaskalos
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Not intimidating if you are playing lucky numbers or horses that look pretty.
Against my better judgement...I succumbed to the wishes of a friend of mine who kept insisting that I teach him how to handicap horses. He is a total neophyte who has only seen the racehorses on TV...but he is recuperating from recent knee surgery and has time on his hands. So he opened up an ADW account and kept asking me for a simplified handicapping system that I could recommend to him so he didn't just end up "throwing his money away".

I gave it a little thought, and created for him a bare-bones handicapping system off the top of my head, using the past performances that his ADW was supplying to him for the price of a daily bet. It took me about 15 minutes to create the "method", and another half-hour to explain it to him...and I made sure to tell him that this was only a starter method meant to be used only with minimum betting units.

Well...this was about three weeks ago, and he calls me on a daily basis to tell me how he is doing. He tells me that he started off betting dollar 3-horse exacta boxes on the method's top 3 horses...but he was doing so well that he now bets $3 exacta boxes. He has made $960 in profits in 3 weeks, he tells me...and he now calls me a "handicapping God"...while wondering how much money I must be winning with my more "advanced" handicapping methods. And I am too embarrassed to tell him that I've lost approximatelly $3,000 over the same time-period.

So...to get back to your original point...there is at least ONE neophyte out there who has gotten attracted to this game without ever seeing a live race.
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Old 08-14-2021, 07:29 PM   #62
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Sports fans form relationships with teams and players. It's hard for people to think of horse racing as a sport when they can't form any kind of relationship with the horses given they run so infrequently and retire so soon. Racing will never be like football, baseball etc.. but if horses ran until they were 5-6 and we had more multi generational matchups between champions, I think we could move the needle in a positive direction.

The economics of breeding/buying yearlings vs. racing for purses is what it is, but we can see by looking at mares that if those economics were different, horses would race longer for purses. I don't understand the economics of yearling prices at all. Almost all the buyers are getting buried financially, but they keep on buying, which in turn encourages retirement. That's "one" thing that has to change to at least start moving in a positive direction.
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Old 08-14-2021, 08:48 PM   #63
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Sports fans form relationships with teams and players. It's hard for people to think of horse racing as a sport when they can't form any kind of relationship with the horses given they run so infrequently and retire so soon. Racing will never be like football, baseball etc.. but if horses ran until they were 5-6 and we had more multi generational matchups between champions, I think we could move the needle in a positive direction.

The economics of breeding/buying yearlings vs. racing for purses is what it is, but we can see by looking at mares that if those economics were different, horses would race longer for purses. I don't understand the economics of yearling prices at all. Almost all the buyers are getting buried financially, but they keep on buying, which in turn encourages retirement. That's "one" thing that has to change to at least start moving in a positive direction.
Horse racing doesn't need this kind of fans...IMO. Some sports fans identify with certain teams and go around telling other fans that "their team" is this or that. This sort of "loyalty" isn't what horse racing is about.

Gambling games don't depend upon "emotional relationship"...they sink or swim in accordance with the entertainment/wagering value that they offer to the bettor. If the value is there, then the bettor will come...and if the value ISN'T there...then neither will the bettor be there. And when I say "value"...I don't necessarily mean PROFIT. The casino side of the racetrack offers no "profitable" games...but the "entertainment" value seems to be higher probably because the bettors there lose at a slower rate. So...the casino side of the racetrack is brimming with business...while the horse-betting side is a ghost-town.
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Old 08-14-2021, 09:54 PM   #64
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Thumbs down AP A RACETRACK PALACE

Used to live in Chicago and also did NTRA contests at AP. Upon my first entrance to the track I thought I was in a palace. Classiest track facility I ever visited and I have visited most US tracks. Hate to see it close if that does in fact happen. Sad day for Chicago cappers.
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Old 08-15-2021, 09:56 AM   #65
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Horse racing doesn't need this kind of fans...IMO. Some sports fans identify with certain teams and go around telling other fans that "their team" is this or that. This sort of "loyalty" isn't what horse racing is about.

Gambling games don't depend upon "emotional relationship"...they sink or swim in accordance with the entertainment/wagering value that they offer to the bettor. If the value is there, then the bettor will come...and if the value ISN'T there...then neither will the bettor be there. And when I say "value"...I don't necessarily mean PROFIT. The casino side of the racetrack offers no "profitable" games...but the "entertainment" value seems to be higher probably because the bettors there lose at a slower rate. So...the casino side of the racetrack is brimming with business...while the horse-betting side is a ghost-town.
I think you are missing my point, but I do understand your point about the value.

IMO, most people don't wake up one day and say to themselves, I think I'm going to start gambling on football, baseball, boxing etc... They start watching a sport, find themselves enjoying it, and eventually start forming attachments and opinions on the participants. Then they start betting on the events.

The value of the wagering event certainly means a lot long term, but you have to get new people in the door too.

When Got Stormy won yesterday, my twitter feed lit up. That's because everyone knows Got Stormy, has followed her career, and she beat the boys again. Not surprisingly a lot of tweets were from women who now follow the sport. It seems to me that WAY more women follow the sport now than years ago. It would not shock me if horses like Zenyatta and Rachel had something to do with that in the same way Forego, Seattle Slew, and Ruffian did it for me. Some of these women bet too. That's what we want. We need more horses like Got Stormy.
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Old 08-15-2021, 10:51 AM   #66
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Horse racing doesn't need this kind of fans...IMO. Some sports fans identify with certain teams and go around telling other fans that "their team" is this or that. This sort of "loyalty" isn't what horse racing is about.

Gambling games don't depend upon "emotional relationship"...they sink or swim in accordance with the entertainment/wagering value that they offer to the bettor. If the value is there, then the bettor will come...and if the value ISN'T there...then neither will the bettor be there. And when I say "value"...I don't necessarily mean PROFIT. The casino side of the racetrack offers no "profitable" games...but the "entertainment" value seems to be higher probably because the bettors there lose at a slower rate. So...the casino side of the racetrack is brimming with business...while the horse-betting side is a ghost-town.
I guess you've never met a Dallas Cowboy's fan who bets on their team every week regardless of if they are good or not. They are the 2nd most popular team in Canada after the Bills. Their fans will bet on them always believing they will win. There are also teams that fans bet on every week because of their popularity. Pittsburgh and Green Bay are two others. We have our own sports betting up here and the teams I mentioned points spread are always .5 to 1.5 in favor of those teams. If the real line is 6 or 6.5 and they are favored, the line will be 7-7.5 if they are dogs lets say 4-3.5 it will be 3-2.5
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Old 08-15-2021, 11:14 AM   #67
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The sport is dying because the other available forms of gambling are more attractive to the majority of the gambling public. It isn't a matter of getting people to attend the live meets...the vast majority of the confirmed gamblers have already attended horse racing's live meets. But they haven't found the game to their liking...and they have drifted off to somewhere else.
Agree....I would add that anyone who has an iota of common sense with trying to make money then studies the mechanics of horse race betting and the odds that are now stacked against you and its not that hard of a decision to migrate elsewhere. I would also add it appears in some places in this country it will be easier to wager on a football game than a horse race from your computer.

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Old 08-15-2021, 03:38 PM   #68
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I think you are missing my point, but I do understand your point about the value.

IMO, most people don't wake up one day and say to themselves, I think I'm going to start gambling on football, baseball, boxing etc... They start watching a sport, find themselves enjoying it, and eventually start forming attachments and opinions on the participants. Then they start betting on the events.

The value of the wagering event certainly means a lot long term, but you have to get new people in the door too.

When Got Stormy won yesterday, my twitter feed lit up. That's because everyone knows Got Stormy, has followed her career, and she beat the boys again. Not surprisingly a lot of tweets were from women who now follow the sport. It seems to me that WAY more women follow the sport now than years ago. It would not shock me if horses like Zenyatta and Rachel had something to do with that in the same way Forego, Seattle Slew, and Ruffian did it for me. Some of these women bet too. That's what we want. We need more horses like Got Stormy.
I'm not missing your point...I understand completely what you are saying. I just can't see how the sport of horse racing can possibly compete with the more popular team sports, as far as "attachment" is concerned. The particular teams play on a regular basis, and the games last a long time...whereas the horses run very infrequently and the races last a minute or two. There isn't any real fanfare that such an entertainment venue can generate...IMO. I was as big a fan of Zenyatta as anyone else on this board...but I would be lying if I said that the existence of that horse has had any real effect on how I view and bet this game. And I feel that the majority of the horseplayers out there would say likewise..."nostalgia" notwithstanding.

Some years ago, an article was posted here in which the CHRB declared that they didn't feel that they were in competition with the other legalized forms of "gambling". The LAKERS were their primary competition...the article reported them saying. It's an advanced case of lunacy such as this that has the game in the dire straits that it finds itsef in...IMO.
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Old 08-15-2021, 03:56 PM   #69
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I'm not missing your point...I understand completely what you are saying. I just can't see how the sport of horse racing can possibly compete with the more popular team sports, as far as "attachment" is concerned.

I was as big a fan of Zenyatta as anyone else on this board...but I would be lying if I said that the existence of that horse has had any real effect on how I view and bet this game. And I feel that the majority of the horseplayers out there would say likewise..."nostalgia" notwithstanding.
As I said, horse racing with never be football, baseball, etc.. in terms of "attachment" goes, but things aren't always black and white or 100% and 0%. There are things in between.

Would having the very top horses run until 4-6 and having some all time great matchups like Slew/Affirmed, Affirned/Bid etc.. attract some new fans?

I think it would.

I was also a huge Zenyatta fan. She didn't have much impact on my fandom or the way I bet either, but I was already an old crusty fan. So for me, Seattle Slew and Ruffian did. For some teenager or some woman that tagged along with their husband or boyfriend and saw her run, she may have created a new fan.
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Old 08-15-2021, 04:20 PM   #70
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As I said, horse racing with never be football, baseball, etc.. in terms of "attachment" goes, but things aren't always black and white or 100% and 0%. There are things in between.

Would having the very top horses run until 4-6 and having some all time great matchups like Slew/Affirmed, Affirned/Bid etc.. attract some new fans?

I think it would.


I was also a huge Zenyatta fan. She didn't have much impact on my fandom or the way I bet either, but I was already an old crusty fan. So for me, Seattle Slew and Ruffian did. For some teenager or some woman that tagged along with their husband or boyfriend and saw her run, she may have created a new fan.
This will never happen...and you know it. So...why should we keep dreaming instead of facing reality? Instead of wishing for miracles that I know will never take place, I choose instead to talk about things that have at least a slight chance of materializing. Like the possible implementation of a more reasonable takeout rate...the possible institution of a more effective drug enforcement policy...and the possible renovation of the current archaic wager processing system.

Before the game can expect to attract new customers...it should try to properly accommodate the loyal customers that it already has. Because if the loyal customers are fleeing in droves...then the chance of attracting "new blood" is practically NIL.
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Old 08-15-2021, 04:55 PM   #71
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This will never happen...and you know it. So...why should we keep dreaming instead of facing reality? Instead of wishing for miracles that I know will never take place, I choose instead to talk about things that have at least a slight chance of materializing. Like the possible implementation of a more reasonable takeout rate...the possible institution of a more effective drug enforcement policy...and the possible renovation of the current archaic wager processing system.
That's a reasonable position.

I just have a funny feeling all the things you are focusing on would be great for keeping hard core gamblers, whales, and computer teams happy, but they aren't going to attract new fans.

Top mares run longer because the economics of racing are competitive with breeding. There aren't many ways to change the economics for males, but it's not impossible. The economics once allowed for top horses to run at 4 and sometimes even 5. I'm not informed enough to know what all the dynamics were that caused the change, but someone must know.

IMO, much larger purses would help, but the best way of doing that would be consolidation. A lot of people are against that.

Another would be a realization by some owners that they are losing their shirts paying ridiculous prices for yearlings. If the marginal owner suddenly refuses to pay stupid prices, then stud fees would decline and change the prices for stallions.

A lower take will increase the handle, but how much it that impacts the track's bottom line to raise purses is a little fuzzier.
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Old 08-15-2021, 05:21 PM   #72
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Step 1 is to identify who your new fans would be and what attracts them or would attract them to the sport. I donít think that racing is ready for that yet
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Old 08-15-2021, 07:40 PM   #73
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Step 1 is to identify who your new fans would be and what attracts them or would attract them to the sport. I donít think that racing is ready for that yet

Thaskalos has already identified the new fan and is in the process of mentoring he/him, her/she, they.
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Old 08-15-2021, 08:24 PM   #74
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Thaskalos has already identified the new fan and is in the process of mentoring he/him, her/she, they.
Just doing my part to keep the game moving forward.
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Old 08-17-2021, 07:31 PM   #75
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I guess you've never met a Dallas Cowboy's fan who bets on their team every week regardless of if they are good or not.
I'm a Cowboys fan but I wouldn't bet on them with your money.

I get your point, though. I've met some of them.
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