This doesn't sound good (for Servis and Navarro)

[P.Rosa]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Why didn't McGaughey say this about Servis BEFORE?

Fear.

Larry Jones 1st and I believe only drug positive came in 2008, two days prior to one of his owners testifying in front of Congress about drugs in horse racing.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/r...erol-positive/

[dlivery]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

This is a very common problem. You can see this in #metoo situations in Hollywood as well. You can see it with Andrew Cuomo. When people are powerful, other folks are afraid of them. It's hard to step out there alone.

But once a person is actually fingered, other people come out of the woodwork because it is safe to do so.

Money is like Heroin

[Hambletonian]

I was going through some old DRFs from my misspent youth. You know what was most apparent-- the number of starts per year-- as well as the lack of crazy form reversals. You could look at the PPs for a 10K claiming router, see form cycles through a 20-30 race season...but nothing nuts. Until Oscar Barrera came along.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying racing was clean before this...but Oscar Barrera proved you could get away with anything. As a New Yorker, well, we had a great training colony here, but the only form reversal greater than those of OSB's horses was his own career form reversal. Go on and check Equbaase and see what you think.

Let's face it, OSB's greatest sin was Shifty Sheik. that one garnered way too much attention and it was the beginning of the end for him. But while his wins dried up, he never had to pay a price for what he did. And this in arguably the biggest betting market in the US. Look at what followed, an endless supply of dime store villains who came, saw, conquered then mysteriously disappeared.

But until now none paid a price for their part in ruining the game. Now I for one do not believe Navarro has the millions to pay restitution...seems like that is a bit of a joke...but it looks like he will never bother us again, and the next wanna be is going to have to consider the potential liability of living a life of crime.

And I hope once and for all that all the industry apologists for these criminals shut the eff up. Their "move along, there is nothing to see here" routine was even worse than the bs that was going on, since it treated us like rubes who were genetically designed and cultivated to be fleeced.

It may very well be too little, too late. Look at the average age of sports bettors as compared to horse players. That battle may be lost already. But in any case hopefully we will have a better product moving forward.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Hambletonian

I was going through some old DRFs from my misspent youth. You know what was most apparent-- the number of starts per year-- as well as the lack of crazy form reversals. You could look at the PPs for a 10K claiming router, see form cycles through a 20-30 race season...but nothing nuts. Until Oscar Barrera came along.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying racing was clean before this...but Oscar Barrera proved you could get away with anything. As a New Yorker, well, we had a great training colony here, but the only form reversal greater than those of OSB's horses was his own career form reversal. Go on and check Equbaase and see what you think.

Let's face it, OSB's greatest sin was Shifty Sheik. that one garnered way too much attention and it was the beginning of the end for him. But while his wins dried up, he never had to pay a price for what he did. And this in arguably the biggest betting market in the US. Look at what followed, an endless supply of dime store villains who came, saw, conquered then mysteriously disappeared.

But until now none paid a price for their part in ruining the game. Now I for one do not believe Navarro has the millions to pay restitution...seems like that is a bit of a joke...but it looks like he will never bother us again, and the next wanna be is going to have to consider the potential liability of living a life of crime.

And I hope once and for all that all the industry apologists for these criminals shut the eff up. Their "move along, there is nothing to see here" routine was even worse than the bs that was going on, since it treated us like rubes who were genetically designed and cultivated to be fleeced.

It may very well be too little, too late. Look at the average age of sports bettors as compared to horse players. That battle may be lost already. But in any case hopefully we will have a better product moving forward.

I agree. The game is very different now vs then if you look at winning horses and form cycles, as someone who developed and sells product I can see the forward moves are often so drastic with modern US racing there's not much chance IMO for even a fairly good handicapper to forecast them. I would not get serious about racing investment again until we start seeing an end to these giant moves. If you find a track where you don't see gigantic moves constantly then that's the place to play IMO, even if the pools are smaller than major league if it looks like cleaner racing that's where to focus if you're willing to put the time into it.

[andicap]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I agree. The game is very different now vs then if you look at winning horses and form cycles, as someone who developed and sells product I can see the forward moves are often so drastic with modern US racing there's not much chance IMO for even a fairly good handicapper to forecast them. I would not get serious about racing investment again until we start seeing an end to these giant moves. If you find a track where you don't see gigantic moves constantly then that's the place to play IMO, even if the pools are smaller than major league if it looks like cleaner racing that's where to focus if you're willing to put the time into it.

Have you tried to analyze form cycles for different trainers?

[Robert Fischer]

it's just another model that you have to use


it can be a betting edge when the odds get up to >5-1 on an x horse

still players unaware or in denial, so it isn't always priced in


causes me some cognitive dissonance ('sad' 'guilt' in basic terms), but it's upsetting when when a trainer doesn't use x and you've leaned on that horse

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by andicap

Have you tried to analyze form cycles for different trainers?

Aside from knowing which local barns win when they get bet coming off of a couple of bad lines I don't go much beyond that. A lot of these horses run out of their skin coming off of a string of junk races and the trainer is nobody of note. I suspect the vet may have something to do with it and it wouldn't surprise me if some of the trainers aren't even in the loop. If you're a vet and betting or feeding live bets to 'someone', then keeping the barn in the loop might not be a high priority. I think it's complicated, there's still a lot going on behind the curtain and certain tracks may be far more worthwhile to put the handicapping effort into than others.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by pandy

I just posted about this. Apparently a lot more names are involved including harness trainers. Navarro, obviously, is a well known juicer and I'd love to see him banned from the sport asap and hopefully face criminal charges if they can prove this.

Sentence to be handed down December.

Faces deportation to panama.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ortation-looms

Allan

[GMB@BP]

Very sad, hard to read.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...urt_filing_123

[lamboguy]

up until about 2010, i thought it was impossible to dope horses up on a race day and have it not show up in a urine test. how stupid of me. i am sure its still going on now somehow though.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

up until about 2010, i thought it was impossible to dope horses up on a race day and have it not show up in a urine test. how stupid of me. i am sure its still going on now somehow though.

Lance Armstrong is a name we're familiar with. His stuff goes from ~1998-2012, and skimming his Wikipedia page, '1999' may have been one of the accused wrongdoing years.

it wasn't until 2004 that the testing mandated that cheaters had to store and dope their own blood, rather than just getting any blood of the same 'type'.

After 2004 if they used their own blood, they could beat the new test. If they wish to catch a blood doper since 2004-now, they have to surprise the athlete/team-trainers, and draw blood, and test for different biological profiles, and show that the athlete either has insanely abnormal profiles, or has had significant increases over time.

sounds complicated and expensive

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

I like this because it makes a great point. Think of all the people guys like Navarro have ripped off during their training careers. Think of how many people were forced to quit the business because of guys like Navarro. How many people couldn't send their kids to college because of guys like Navarro? I hope people start thinking in these terms cuz there's at least one big guy in California who's been taking purse money from people for years. I'd mention all the Gamblers who were ripped off by guys like Navarro but we know for a fact that the Industry could care less about me and others like me.

If a Moron like Navarro could get away with it for so long what do you think halfway intelligent people have been getting away with for many years?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...96347674529792



I like this because it makes a great point. Think of all the people guys like Navarro have ripped off during their training careers. Think of how many people were forced to quit the business because of guys like Navarro. How many people couldn't send their kids to college because of guys like Navarro? I hope people start thinking in these terms cuz there's at least one big guy in California who's been taking purse money from people for years. I'd mention all the Gamblers who were ripped off by guys like Navarro but we know for a fact that the Industry could care less about me and others like me.

If a Moron like Navarro could get away with it for so long what do you think halfway intelligent people have been getting away with for many years?

If you play in this sandbox pretty sure you know what you are getting into.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

If you play in this sandbox pretty sure you know what you are getting into.

Exactly correct.

The Game, and Business...is in the shape it's in because the Powers that be WANT it that way. If this Nefarious behavior was perceived as bad for these Powers...you could damned well bet it would be stopped...Pronto.

It isn't like those in charge of Racing have been busy improving other aspects of the Game or anything.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...96347674529792



I like this because it makes a great point. Think of all the people guys like Navarro have ripped off during their training careers. Think of how many people were forced to quit the business because of guys like Navarro. How many people couldn't send their kids to college because of guys like Navarro? I hope people start thinking in these terms cuz there's at least one big guy in California who's been taking purse money from people for years. I'd mention all the Gamblers who were ripped off by guys like Navarro but we know for a fact that the Industry could care less about me and others like me.

If a Moron like Navarro could get away with it for so long what do you think halfway intelligent people have been getting away with for many years?

When there's a criminal conviction, all sorts of things that would otherwise be very difficult become quite easy. Not only restitution, but also potential civil suits (the criminal conviction is binding in civil lawsuits).

And this is one big reason that horse racing would be a lot better off if the DOJ took more of an interest in it. The law gets violated all the time in this sport- and not only by all the dopers and cheaters. (A lot of betting coups probably violate the Wire Fraud law for instance.)