Stock Market Prediction

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

I understand your position, but I disagree. The market, over time, will rise again. This is a correction that has been predicted for a long time. On a 10 to 15 year horizon, a well managed fund consisting of bonds and equity will be fine on that kind of time horizon.

i'd rather be buying closer to the bottom.

maybe you guys don't remember companies like CMGI, JDS Uniphase, or Legato. Polaroid, Digital Equipment, Wang Computer, Braniff Airlines. Eastern Airlines. they come and they go. the leaders of the next bull market might be companies that don't exist today.

i can promise you that in 15 years some of these chipmakers will be no more.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i'd rather be buying closer to the bottom.

maybe you guys don't remember companies like CMGI, JDS Uniphase, or Legato. Polaroid, Digital Equipment, Wang Computer, Braniff Airlines. Eastern Airlines. they come and they go. the leaders of the next bull market might be companies that don't exist today.

i can promise you that in 15 years some of these chipmakers will be no more.

All the more reason an S&P500 index makes sense. You don't even have to pick the winners and losers, they come to the top and the bigger they get, the more you own.



I agree that it's hard to know what companies will dominate in the future, I only own 15-20 individual positions and those are very long standing bell weathers and I only buy them when there price is reasonable. With the amount of ETF's out there today and the low cost of them it's a no brainer to rely on those.

[lamboguy]

3 sells that show up multiple times

Dupont

Raytheon

Barrick Gold


these are not your normal type of sales in a bear market like now. then you ask yourself why, the only answer i can come up with is "when they raid the whorehouse, they take all the girls"

[lamboguy]

i used to trade Dupont to the long side every time and did quite well with it

i never understood how Raytheon stayed in business. i shorted them, like a fool, years ago, and got estimated to the trade. i knew a bunch of guys that worked for them, they went to work @ 7 a.m. ate lunch and made the track for the East Coast Daily Doubles everyday.. they all made over $100k for the year and had great benefits and pensions. the stock kept going up, up and away.

Barrick has been a mess since they merged with Randgold. i have met the CEO, Bristow, who i think is one of the sharpest guys in the mining business. he probably should have never gotten together with Barrick. Barrick was big, but mismanaged.


i am just going to short Raytheon

[lamboguy]

one more thing, if you short Raython, you will be paying a dividend next week for .55 per share.... interesting that these guys aren't waiting to capture this dividend.

[lamboguy]

sunrun (RUN) has been dropping all year, the stock has 12 analysts with strong buy ratings, yet there is a ton of insider sales on this baby.. do you by any chance think this stock is going up now? not me, i am going short!

[lamboguy]

by my numbers, you never want to see gold stocks decline when we are at risk-off. we are at risk-off and gold miners are coming apart.

with new rules in place, brokerage firms don't have to notify you when your margin has exceeded the account net worth.. they have computers that automatically sell you out of your positions without giving you time to come up with the money to cover your margin.

just guessing now because we are headed for some very wild times in these equity markets. it looks like there is going to be a major liquidity crisis. and people have to sell the good to cover the bad.

i personally have never seen a bear market like this one where everyone thinks their great stocks are going to come back, and all they have to do is have a 15-year or longer horizon and they will be just fine. if you are in that crowd, let me guarantee you when the pied piper comes calling, he always gets paid. never mind this 15 year bullshit. `

[lamboguy]

i used to run around all over the world meeting up with gold minor CEOs. my favorite guy that i met was Bob Buchan, the CEO for KGC, Kinross Gold.

i had been trading with this gold miner called BGO. their main mines were in Russia. anyway, Buchan was forced to resign as CEO of KGC because he was dead set against acquiring BGO. at one point before he stepped down the stock was $25 per share. they took over BGO and just recently had to sell the company to the Russians at a big loss. BGO had some great feasibility reports done by top Canadien geologists.

The bottom line the stock is trading under $5 and that is after a reverse split a number of years ago.

i am just bringing this shit up because i never went to college, i got my own form of education. i used to always tell bookmakers, "who do you want to get your line from, the guy wearing a shirt and tie, or the guy that had his doors knocked down by the law?

that means, don't value the information they give you on these financial networks with guys that wear expensive suits or the guys that sit in fancy offices with a wall full of degrees. this is the real world, and you have to think for yourself.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

S&P was at 3225 before Covid started....it was a steady 12% for the past 6 years before

If we take the usual 12% gain for 2 years we get 4045

Now we are at 3991....


WE ARE NOW F$%^&D!!!!!

maybe people read my post here.....


But I won't count on it till there's a few days like this....

I know Lamboy is still believing Armageddon is coming

[PaceAdvantage]

this market is so fucking weak right now, it's scary

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

maybe people read my post here.....


But I won't count on it till there's a few days like this....

I know Lamboy is still believing Armageddon is coming

i made 4 posts in the middle of the night watching the futures rise hoping that someone like you might pay some attention to what i am posting.. even if i am wrong, which i am not, you are not missing anything right now. there is going to come a day when things do turn around.

if you date back to the time period of 1929-1932, the equity markets lost 89% of its value. between 1932-1933 the equity markets gained 150%. i am even telling that Gold is in trouble now too, something that i never thought could happen.

[Richie]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i made 4 posts in the middle of the night watching the futures rise hoping that someone like you might pay some attention to what i am posting.. even if i am wrong, which i am not, you are not missing anything right now. there is going to come a day when things do turn around.

if you date back to the time period of 1929-1932, the equity markets lost 89% of its value. between 1932-1933 the equity markets gained 150%. i am even telling that Gold is in trouble now too, something that i never thought could happen.

What about the aging population won't they be moving money out of these markets over the next 10 plus years, how does that play out?

won't that have a negative effect?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Richie

What about the aging population won't they be moving money out of these markets over the next 10 plus years, how does that play out?

won't that have a negative effect?

you would think.. i see no reason whatsoever to place good money long into these markets that is nothing short of being rat poison on steroids.

[lamboguy]

the president is on television trying to pump up the markets. no question, he is the worst president this century, including Trump. and he is headed to be the worst of all time. he has zero leadership skills, and has no idea what he is talking about. he really should be removed immediately.

[lamboguy]

he started speaking the dow was down 160, done speaking dow down 260. they would have been better off sending him back to the basement