58th SOUTHWEST STAKES

[TMQ]

Bafferts Derby horses have to switch barns earlier this year I believe. Not sure on the exact date though

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by TMQ

Bafferts Derby horses have to switch barns earlier this year I believe. Not sure on the exact date though

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[affirmedny]

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[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Publius

Southwest was run on Presidents weekend in years past prior to Oaklawn changing their racing dates.

Comparing years past to today is now outdated.

Correct, and I think the results will only be WORSE for the winner (if that's possible) with the earlier date. We are talking about growing, maturing 3yos. As horses develop and progress towards an appearance in the 20-stall starting gate in May, many of the more precocious ones fall by the wayside.

Want different numbers, since those were "outdated"? Since Smarty Jones's Southwest in 2004, there have been all of 2 May Derby winners who've won a JANUARY stakes - Barbaro and Medina Spirit. (Authentic did, but his Derby was in September.) In addition to the Southwest, Smarty Jones won Aqueduct's version of the Count Fleet in early January 2004.

My argument is less about a specific race like the Southwest, than about wasting time getting excited about Derby season/preps and their winners, especially early ones.

I'd be more interested in a future pool where I could wager on the various prep winners NOT being in the gate on the first Saturday in May, let alone running and winning!!! There are a lot more times when in 4-5 years we look back at the list of winners of these early preps and can't even remember the horses, because they went on to accomplish not much of anything.

Again, COULD Arabian Knight win the Derby? Sure. Do I need to waste any time evaluating that possibility before May 1st and he's drawn into a starting stall? No.

#WaitUntilMay #JustAnotherRace

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Want different numbers, since those were "outdated"? Since Smarty Jones's Southwest in 2004, there have been all of 2 May Derby winners who've won a JANUARY stakes - Barbaro and Medina Spirit. (Authentic did, but his Derby was in September.) In addition to the Southwest, Smarty Jones won Aqueduct's version of the Count Fleet in early January 2004.

Equibase is still listing Medina Spirit as the winner, and I wind up thinking of him as the winner, since I bet him. But if you substitute Mandaloun - then it's only Barbaro with a January stakes win. (And speaking of DQ'd horses, Maximum Security did not have a January stakes win either.)

[Robert Fischer]

The number of Southwest ( or 'January Stakes' ) winners to go on to win the Kentucky Derby is correlational, but is essentially trivia.

I'm with you on #WaitUntilMay

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The number of Southwest ( or 'January Stakes' ) winners to go on to win the Kentucky Derby is correlational, but is essentially trivia.

I'm with you on #WaitUntilMay

I agree with YOU - it's pretty much ALL trivia until the pills come out of the bottle on May 1st.

[Bennie]

I wish we could bet "against" a horse winning an early prep but not winning the derby (even not hitting the board). I do bet the futures but mostly recreational type bets like boxing 3 horses with the field in an exacta. But the first thing I do is eliminate horses. When you have time, take a look back at the winners of these 5 early route preps. The LA futurity, the Breeders Futurity, the Remsen, the BC Juvenile and the Remsen. In the last 10 years, that's how far I looked back, of the 50 races - Dortmund (LA Fut) ran 3rd in the derby, Good Magic (BC Juv) ran 2nd and Nyquist (BC Juv) won the derby. Unless I missed something, no one from any of the remaining races hit the board. This year that would include Forte and Instant Coffee along with Practical Move and Dubyuhnell. Doesn't eliminate many horses but ones that will take early money. Just not mine.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Equibase is still listing Medina Spirit as the winner, and I wind up thinking of him as the winner, since I bet him. But if you substitute Mandaloun - then it's only Barbaro with a January stakes win. (And speaking of DQ'd horses, Maximum Security did not have a January stakes win either.)

One of these days the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission (and likely the courts) will resolve the issue of who the official winner of the Derby was that year. At that point, if the disqualification of Medina Spirit is upheld, Mandaloun will be listed as the official winner of the race.

[davew]

I liked FORTE comeback and win, but a horse that starts in the middle of the pack has alot of traffic to weave around and dodge in the Derby.


What happened to ARABIAN KNIGHT and CAVE ROCK? I do not see them on recent futures lists were they retired or injured? or just not eligible as long as Baffert trainer?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by davew

I liked FORTE comeback and win, but a horse that starts in the middle of the pack has alot of traffic to weave around and dodge in the Derby.


What happened to ARABIAN KNIGHT and CAVE ROCK? I do not see them on recent futures lists were they retired or injured? or just not eligible as long as Baffert trainer?

Santa Anita had some bad weather that caused the track to be closed for workouts for several days so presumably both horses missed a workout due to that.

I believe Arabian Knight is now trained by Tim Yakteen; he just worked on March 4.

Cave Rock was reported as still being trained by Baffert and not pointing to the Derby, but he breezed a sharp 5f on March 4 also. It was only his 3rd workout on the year. Perhaps they are pointing for the Preakness or just taking their time since he's way behind on conditioning. He didn't have much room for error and the weather interrupting his training was probably enough to forego the Derby if he was ever pointing for it.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Santa Anita had some bad weather that caused the track to be closed for workouts for several days so presumably both horses missed a workout due to that.

I believe Arabian Knight is now trained by Tim Yakteen; he just worked on March 4.

Cave Rock was reported as still being trained by Baffert and not pointing to the Derby, but he breezed a sharp 5f on March 4 also. It was only his 3rd workout on the year. Perhaps they are pointing for the Preakness or just taking their time since he's way behind on conditioning. He didn't have much room for error and the weather interrupting his training was probably enough to forego the Derby if he was ever pointing for it.

Wouldn't you think he's probably more likely pointing Cave Rock to the Woody Stephens?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Wouldn't you think he's probably more likely pointing Cave Rock to the Woody Stephens?

Didn't think of that race. It seems like nowadays Baffert just brings them back in two turn races if that's where they are meant to be. That might be a function of the poorly constructed stakes schedule for 3yos in CA, though. I could see him settling for the minor 8.5f Affirmed & Los Alamitos Derby (sure to be 5-horse fields) as lead ins for the Haskell, which is usually a go-to race for him.

But Pletcher had no qualms about pointing Corniche (another horse I'd peg as a 'two turn' horse) for the Amsterdam & Baffert likes the Belmont undercard. Maybe they should reinstate the Easy Goer to give him more options.

On the cynical front, he may be going all in for the Preakness to make a mark on the 2023 Triple Crown. He would need a prep race for that. The Lexington may be on the radar.

[the little guy]

Except all his current horses with other trainers will go back to him after the Derby

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Except all his current horses with other trainers will go back to him after the Derby

I'm not really sold that he has a viable horse for the classics aside from Cave Rock if he makes it back in one piece (which is no slam dunk).

Arabian Knight is well hyped but unless he's an Indian Charlie reboot, not sure his profile screams Derby horse. And saying he's like another Indian Charlie isn't really a compliment when you consider that horse's longevity. I'm not sure where he's going next, I presume Arkansas Derby so that Yakteen doesn't have to compromise his own viable Derby prospect (Practical Move); seems vulnerable if the race is anything like the Rebel (large field, fast pace) which he notably skipped.

I don't think much of Reincarnate. Yet his profile seems to have actually been enhanced by his ho-hum effort in the Rebel. Much is made about him overcoming adversity but IMO we should be asking ourselves why he was flat from the gate and out of position early in the first place. Getting sawed off mid-stretch was dramatic but basically irrelevant. He wasn't going to make a dent on the winner and I don't really think he would have given the runner-up much trouble for the place spot.

Newgate is on the shelf and National Treasure was a vet scratch from the San Felipe. Not sure there was anything else of note from his barn.