Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Selections


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-15-2014, 05:40 PM   #1
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
Del Mar **TRACK PHANTOM**

7-17-14

RACE 7
8 CINMARS DANCE 12-1 2nd off the layoff, sprint to route and blinkers on; the talent is there
5 SIR MACHO 7-2 40k claim from last for Spawr; 2nd at 6-1; picks up big name rider
4 JACKSON SUNDOWN 8-1 Pretty consistent at this level; 2 for 5 in the exacta on synthetic
7 NO BARNEYS 6-1 Break out effort in first route, won by 6 with 77 Beyer; speedster

8 CINMARS DANCE
His debut here was better than it looked. He broke very slow and came rushing up the inside and was likely best late in the race. He won next out at 15-1. His 4th in the Golden State Juvenile was huge. That track (BC Day 1) was all speed and the winner was a 40-1 wire to wire bomb. No one was closing. He outran California Chrome for 4th beaten only 2. Last may have been a prep. Upset.

5 SIR MACHO
Came off the layoff and ran a huge race for Baltas at 40k on the turf in last. He was a bit wide on the turn but made a huge move for 2nd. 4th beaten 9 came back to run 2nd at 25k N2L at Los Al next time out (69 Beyer). Ran 2nd in only start on synthetic and that was over at BHP when 8-1 at 7.5F in a maiden claimer 40k. Works are sharp for the return. Trainer excellent off claims. Smith rides.

BEST LONGSHOT CHANCE - #8 CINMARS DANCE (12-1)
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-18-2014, 02:18 AM   #2
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-18-14

RACE 3

7 SHORT HEAT WAVE 8-1 Love the turf pedigree; 36-1 win in last was no joke; 91 Beyer jumps out here
11 GLITTER OF SILVER 6-1 Wire to wire turf win; 6th place finisher, Know Plans, won here on Thur at 25-1
4 BOOZER 7-2 Speedy gelding stretches out; turf holding speed on opening day; Bejarano
2 FRENSHAM 15-1 Back to back stakes races; very troubled trip in last; right class drop in here

7 SHORT HEAT WAVE
Many will look past the 91 Beyer in last and call it a fluke. It wasn’t. The won was decisive and notice the top 3 were a mile clear of the rest. The runner-up came right back to run 2nd to Yard Line at 8-1 in a MSW next out and earned a 93 Beyer. 5th, who was beaten 23, came back to win a maiden claimer at LRC by nearly 11 lengths next out. Grade 1 turfing mare, Short Sleeves, is in the female line. Bred top to bottom for the turf.


BEST LONGSHOT CHANCE - #7 SHORT HEAT WAVE (8-1)
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-19-2014, 11:13 AM   #3
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-19-14

RACE 9 200,000 SAN CLEMENTE HANDICAP - G2 1 MILE TURF (3 YO FILLIES)

7 SANDIVA 5-1 Euro shipper twice a G3 winner overseas; faced strong foes in GB
4 DIVERSY HARBOR 7-2 Really has not run a bad race; Smith up for G1 2nd in last start
12 MY CONQUESTADORY 9-2 First 2 wins were breathtaking; 3 back in BC Turf Juv; tough post
1 TIZ THE KEY 8-1 Right behind Diversy Harbor in Am Oaks; Mandella; working well

7 SANDIVA
Split the field in both of the G1 races at Newmarket and Ascot. Last was a stacked field. Winner won the G1 Moyglare 3 races earlier and was 2nd to Chriselliam in the G1 Shadwell. Classy type comes flying.

4 DIVERSY HARBOR
Smith took the mount in last and she responded with a big effort at 7-1. She was 3rd in the race before but didn’t get a good ride from Van Dyke. Half to 3 Proctor turf graded stks winners. Big future ahead

12 MY CONQUESTADORY

Didn’t get a break on the post draw but this was a classy two-year old filly. She beat the boys in the G2 Summer and was awesome weaving through traffic in the G1 at KEE. 4th of 14 in the BC. Big player.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-20-2014, 12:03 PM   #4
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-20-14

RACE 4

4 TARA’S TANGO 3-1
9 WINDY FORECAST 7-2
6 DADDY’S DUO 9-2
1 MAYBELLENE 7-2

4 TARA’S TANGO
Clockers are really giving this one high marks for her morning drills. She has been outworking an older barnmate. Half to 2 stakes winners including 700k earner, Visionaire. Both won as a 2 yo. Hollendorfer superb with juveniles. Smith has been up in works. Should be live.

9 WINDY FORECAST
Working a hole in the wind at SA and has a local spin here just 6 days ago. Trainer Callaghan has 6 two-year old debut runners and is winless. But, he was 2nd in 3 of those. Breeding is very good and it attracts Talamo for this. Clockers indicated gate speed.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-23-2014, 12:01 PM   #5
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-23-14

RACE 1
7 HENNYTHELOVEPENNY 5-2
2 SHEZ A MASTERPIECE 3-1
1 STEALTH DRONE 4-1
5 NICOLE MICHELLE 7-2

7 HENNYTHELOVEPENNY
First time starter by the superstar sprinter, Henny Hughes, who won 6 of 10 starts (6 of 7 sprinting) and over a million dollars. His offspring win as two-year olds around 20%. Works are sharp for Peter Miller who has won 7 of 12 debut two-year old maiden claimers at DMR at 5 or 5.5F.

2 SHEZ A MASTERPIECE
Dollase first timer who is coming in with very nice works over at Santa Anita. Dam won her first, and only, start as a two-year old (on turf at BEL in ’08). Dollase 4 for 12 with 8 in the money with debut 2yo at DMR.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-24-2014, 12:18 PM   #6
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-24-14

RACE 1 50,000 MDN CLM 5F DIRT
5 BANDIDO TOO 4-1 Van Dyke Yakteen
7 SACRED TEMPLE 2-1 Maldonado Kitchingman
6 ARIGATO 4-1 Talamo Pender
4 PEACENLUVPEACENLUV 3-1 Pedroza Miller

5 BANDIDO TOO
Yakteen not all that great with debut runners but does win on occasion and has won at DMR in maiden claiming first out. Bred to run short on the sire line but long on the female side. Was in company with stakes type Texas Ryano on July 9th work and matched stride with him late.

7 SACRED TEMPLE
Ran 2nd to one that returned to win a 50k stakes at OTP. There was not much in the race other than the winner and the 4F fractions were very slow. 10k purchase in a good spot. Doesn’t appear to be much in here.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-26-2014, 04:50 AM   #7
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-26-14

RACE 6 -- 75K MSW 6F DIRT

7 BATTLE OF EVERMORE 6-1
4 HOMER MATT 7-2
6 ALL INDIANS 12-1
8 HARMONIC 12-1

7 BATTLE OF EVERMORE
Debut runner for Sadler. Sadler wins at about 20% at DMR with first time two year old starters sprinting. This one has win early pedigree. The half brother is Bern Identity, a Kelly Breen runner who earned 600,000 as a two-year in 2012 (won G2 Hopeful and 2nd in million dollar Delta Jackpot). Sadler is a half a length away from being 3 for 3 with debut 2yo’s in MSW company sprints for owners. Love work pattern (every 7 days). Tabs Bejarano who is 28% for Sadler.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-27-2014, 01:07 PM   #8
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-27-14

RACE 1 75k MSW 6F DIRT

10 SIBERNATION 6-1
11 TRIBALIST 5-2
6 RAINBOW NORTH 8-1
2 BOOKWORM 5-1

10 SIBERNATION
Low percentage trainer who is 0 for 32 with first timers has this 3 year old gelding who is working very well. Interesting that we have a high percentage, big name rider attracted to a first timer for a low percentage outfit. That is usually a sign of a live runner. Clockers have given him high marks for the works. He should be live in this spot but might want to tab tote for clues.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-30-2014, 03:16 AM   #9
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-30-14

RACE 2 MSW 75K MSW 1M DIRT

6 LIVE FOR NOW 5-2 Baze
1 WEST RIDING 2-1 Smith
5 ICONIC SPIRIT 6-1 Bejarano
3 CAPRAIA 4-1 Perez

6 LIVE FOR NOW
Love the breeding. Sib to one of the all-time greats, Point Given. Backbreeding reveals some excellent runners like Turbo Launch. Took some time to put it together. Maybe wants dirt. G2 placed in the Summer. 3rd two back has won twice since (including Sun here at DMR).

1 WEST RIDING
Always have to respect a Baffert first timer and especially one that is working so well, expensive and by the super sire Tapit. However, Baffert 0 for 11 (only two third place finishes) with 3YO+ debut MSW runners at a route. Clockers have given him rave reviews. Big win consideration.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-31-2014, 03:55 AM   #10
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
7-31-14

RACE 1 20K OPT CLM 6.5F DIRT

6 MASOCHISTIC 7-5
7 RELENTLESS HEAT 8-1
3 MYTHICAL STORM 5-1
2 PASSING GAME 5-1

6 MASOCHISTIC
Big story, this one. Avila apparently sedated him in debut in order to dull him and set up a huge score on Derby Day. It worked. Clearly a very talented runner. 6F time same as G2 CD later in the card and faster than the G2 Humana Distaff. Works are fantastic. The price won’t be.

7 RELENTLESS HEAT

Closer exits a race in which the three runners who have come back to run have all outrun their odds vs better. Makes his second start off the layoff and picks up Talamo. Cal-bred has earned nearly 200k. Picks up some tired foes.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-01-2014, 03:11 AM   #11
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
8-1-14

RACE 1 50K MDN CLM 6.5F DIRT

4 SPECTACULAR PROOF 6-1
6 FLYIN FOR A LIVIN 6-1
3 BOW TIE BELLE 3-1
7 RYDERROO 2-1

4 SPECTACULAR PROOF
Firster for Bernstein who is 1 for 5 with another that ran 2nd with 3 year old and older firsters. His winner was in maiden 30k in Jan at SA and it was another by the sire, Idiot Proof. Works are interesting, highlighted by a 33.1hg at SA in early June and a 59 flat here. Clockers lukewarm on the DMR works and Desormeaux was aboard in the morning but riding another. Trainers debut winner was 30-1. Tote no help. Rider won only start for Bernstein.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-02-2014, 05:10 AM   #12
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
8-2-14

RACE 5 MSW 75,000 5.5F DIRT
8 HER EMMYNENCY 7-2
7 RITZY TAGS 5-1
5 DAPHNE’S DAY 10-1
4 FANCY AND FLASHY 5-1

8 HER EMMYNENCY

Some things to like here. First off, she is working very well for her debut. She was outworking another runner in both of her last two and showed good gate speed in the works. Backbreeding on the female side to 5 mil dollar earner, Best Pal, who was 6 for 8 as a two-year old. Talamo up.

7 RITZY TAGS
Baffert is superb with two-year olds and his numbers go up at Del Mar and with Garcia aboard. Works have been ok but not as blazing as typical for Baffert. She is owned and bred by Baffert. Garcia has won 9 of 24 at Del Mar with Baffert over the last 2 years. She is bred to win early.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-06-2014, 02:14 AM   #13
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
8-6-14

R1 CLM 20,000 6F DIRT

6 SMALL MOVES 5-2
1 J AND J EXPRESS 2-1
3 CREDITCARDROULETTE 4-1
4 MISS AMERICAN PIE 8-1

6 SMALL MOVES

Takes a significant class drop from a key race at OTP. Winner 3rd by 1/2 in a 53k stakes right back. 2nd won opt 25k at SR (81 BSF), 3rd ran 2nd opt 25k at SAC (69 BSF) and 4th (Frisco Fog) won 32k claimer at DMR at 7-1 (75 BSF). Glatt nice numbers here so far. Back to T Baze here.

1 J AND J EXPRESS
Off since April and comes back at lowest level she has been at since she was claimed from O’Neill here just over a year ago. Has shown she can press or stalk the pace and also close with a rush. Broke 1st in 6 of 7 starts so she’ll hold the rail. Belvoir big numbers with this rider.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-07-2014, 03:09 PM   #14
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
8-6-14

R1 MDN CLM 50,000 6F DIRT
2 EASTER FEVER 7-2
1 CITY RIDE 5-2
5 JUST BOOKIN 20-1
8 DON’T NEEDA REASON 3-1

2 EASTER FEVER

First time starter for Bob Hess Jr. Hess has a 2 for 16 (13%) record with debut two-year olds in maiden claiming (6 total hit the board – 38%). However, his record is 2 for 6 (33%) in high maiden claiming with two-year olds at DMR. Best runner in the female tree is 320k earner, Misnomer, who won the Precisionist Stakes in 1994 as a two-year old. Clockers have given her very high ratings for both DMR works. Doesn’t really face a lot. Top rider is up.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-08-2014, 04:27 AM   #15
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
8-7-14

R1 MDN CLM 50,000 6F DIRT

3 BETTER LUCK 3-1
7 PLAYER’S CHARM 5-2
2 STORMIN WILD 9-2
1 KEEGERS 6-1

3 BETTER LUCK
Peter Miller excels in this spot. His record with two-year old debut runners at DMR in maiden claiming company is an amazing 8 for 19 (42%) with 11 in the money (58%). He’s had two such starters this year and only one that was ridden by Espinoza who won at 4-1. Dam won debut at Hollywood Park in 2002 and ran 2nd in the So. Cal Juv 53k at Sol as a 2 yo. Clockers were high on his local works which had Espinoza up. 13k purchase in May in for 4x that amount.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:04 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.