Official Derby Trends Thread

[nads1420]

Might as well start one...

Only 4 horses since 2000 have won the derby with running there final 1 1/8 mile prep in over 1:50 (Street Sense, Mind That Bird, Animal Kingdom, Orb)

This year the only horses to run under 1:50


Firing Line 1:47.1
American Pharoah 1:48.2
Dortmund 1:48.3
One Lucky Dane 1:49.2
Carpe Diem 1:49.3

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X Factor Mubtaahij - UAE Derby ran at 1 3/16 mile

[BlueChip@DRF]

44-0-3-2
No horse with Storm Cat in their blood has ever won the Derby.
It could be the year that this trend may be broken.

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Since 1990, with the exception of Giacomo, all Derby winners have had at least two wins in their record before the Derby.

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19-of-23 (82.6%)
Since 1992, 19 Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last race. The other four finished 4th. And in this time bracket, no Derby winner has finished 3rd in their last race.
1st: 10
2nd: 9
3rd: 0
4th: 4

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Double wins prior to the Derby account for only 8 of the last 23 winners (31.8%); however, it has only occurred since 2000 and is actually 8 of 15 (53%)

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17 of 23 (74%) broke their maiden within their first two starts, eleven straight from 2002-2012

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Since 1992 - number of races as a 3YO before winning the Derby

1: 0
2: 6 (consecutively from 2007-2012)
3: 10
4: 6
5: 0
6: 0
7: 1 (Charismatic)

[Giacomo05]

BlueChip@DRF posted this last year, and it continued with Danza..

9 out of the last 12 years a winner or 2nd place runner from Oaklawn Park has finished in the superfecta.

[minethatbird08]

Super short trend but last two oaks and derby winners are from AP Indy sire line.

[Giacomo05]

Here's a good one..

12 of the past 13 years the derby has been won by a trainer that's never won it before.

[RoyalHeroine]

Originally Posted by Giacomo05

Here's a good one..

12 of the past 13 years the derby has been won by a trainer that's never won it before.

de kock has a good chance to continue the trend.

[RacingFan1992]

Only one horse has won a classic race and had absolutely no Native Dancer/Northern Dancer in his pedigree. Any guesses?

[razorback5]

Originally Posted by RacingFan1992

Only one horse has won a classic race and had absolutely no Native Dancer/Northern Dancer in his pedigree. Any guesses?

Secretariat

[RacingFan1992]

Originally Posted by RacingFan1992

Only one horse has won a classic race and had absolutely no Native Dancer/Northern Dancer in his pedigree. Any guesses?

Yes Secretariat is a correct answer but I meant to say in this century from 2000 to now. Sorry.

[SecretAgentMan]

I wonder if there's such a stat of the horse with the highest IQ winning the derby, lmao.......

[razorback5]

Originally Posted by RacingFan1992

Yes Secretariat is a correct answer but I meant to say in this century from 2000 to now. Sorry.

Barbaro?

[RacingFan1992]

Nope. Mr. Prospector on his mom's side. It was Giacomo. A Holy Bull colt out of Set Them Free.

[razorback5]

Damn, just looked and that's it.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Giacomo05

Here's a good one..

12 of the past 13 years the derby has been won by a trainer that's never won it before.

So who does that eliminate besides Baffert, Pletcher, and Lukas?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

So who does that eliminate besides Baffert, Pletcher, and Lukas?

That's 8 horses dude, that's almost half the field.......