comparing derby Speed Ratings

[Secondbest]

As a comparison I looked up the top winning speed ratings for the Derby

Beyer
Materiality 110
Dortmund 106
Am.Pharo 105
Upstart 105
Dortmund 104
Dortmund 103
Frosted 103
Am.Pharo 100

Steve Roman Chef-de-race
Materiality -66
El Kabier -66
Frosted -63
Carpe diem -62
Upstart -61
El kabier -60
Mubtaahij RP 118 about 80
Dortmnd -54
Am. Pharo -47

Brisnet
Frosted 107
Dortmund 106
Materiality 105
Upstart 105
Carpe Diem 102
Am.Pharo 102
Dortmund 102

TFUS
Dortmund 115
Dortmund 114
Mubtaahij 114
Am.Pharo 113
Firing line 111
Materiality 109
Dortmund 108
upstart 107
Carpe diem 105
Frosted 105

the interesting thing to me is the way the horses are ranked by each.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm used to beyers & brisnet figs.....Chefs pace figs are decent......never got into Timeforms numbers.

All should be used as a tool tho......can't ever rely solely on these numbers to predict the KD winner.

[Secondbest]

Agree. But They give you a basis to compare one horse to another before going deeper.

[SecretAgentMan]

What do you take from Romans Chef pace numbers on Mubtaahij? A 118 RPR= -80 pace number which is ridiculously high.......Big Brown was in the 60's......I think Chrome was as well, can't remember.but a -80??

I don't know what to think.......

[Secondbest]

Me neither

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

As a comparison I looked up the top winning speed ratings for the Derby

Beyer
Materiality 110
Dortmund 106
Am.Pharo 105
Upstart 105
Dortmund 104
Dortmund 103
Frosted 103
Am.Pharo 100

Which ones have performed triple-digits two races in a row other than Dortmund and American Pharoah?

[Secondbest]

I only checked The winning races on drf. But I think Materiality was triple dígits in his race before The fl.derby. 106?

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, horses that ran triple digit beyers in several prep races going into the KD have already peaked to their top performance, so IMO, we won't see their best race on May 2nd......heck, Int Star had his highest beyer lastrace & only received a 97.

Dortmund is pulling off 104's & 106.......llet's not forget its Santa Anita, one of the fastest tracks in the US. Chrome put out a 107 & 108......

I guess the key is to break down the times like sbcaris has done. I wonder if beyers could be given out for 3/8 of a mule, last furlong, from top of the stretch to the finish line, from the 1/8 pole, etc......you catch my drift.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

I only checked The winning races on drf. But I think Materiality was triple dígits in his race before The fl.derby. 106?

Materiality received a 100 brisnet 2 races back, but I don't know the beyer

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I wonder if beyers could be given out for 3/8 of a mule, last furlong, from top of the stretch to the finish line, from the 1/8 pole, etc......you catch my drift.

Brisnet has pace figures and so does TimeformUS. I like seeing a line like Frosted's Wood. Fast pace figures throughout without slowing down.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Brisnet has pace figures and so does TimeformUS. I like seeing a line like Frosted's Wood. Fast pace figures throughout without slowing down.

Yes sir.......Frosted IMO had the best race of any horse in their final prep. Never whipped the horse & he came from 2nd last to catch a slow pace, do you know how hard that is to do?

Very hard.......& he was closing in a straight line not showing any tiredness, no lugging at all. Frosted is my #1 horse as of now......#2 is Int Star........only 2 I like on top.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Yes sir.......Frosted IMO had the best race of any horse in their final prep. Never whipped the horse & he came from 2nd last to catch a slow pace, do you know how hard that is to do?

Very hard.......& he was closing in a straight line not showing any tiredness, no lugging at all. Frosted is my #1 horse as of now......#2 is Int Star........only 2 I like on top.

Just wish it wasnt the Wood... Its just dud after dud out of that race... oh and i wish his name wasnt Frosted sometimes i let stupid things like a bad name hurt my judgement.. everything looks solid with the horse but man i hate that name... but I like "Mubtaahij" thats just fun to say... so go figure...

I believe Frosted does qualify under most of the rules too. which is a nice plus

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by nads1420

Just wish it wasnt the Wood... Its just dud after dud out of that race... oh and i wish his name wasnt Frosted sometimes i let stupid things like a bad name hurt my judgement.. everything looks solid with the horse but man i hate that name... but I like "Mubtaahij" thats just fun to say... so go figure...

I believe Frosted does qualify under most of the rules too. which is a nice plus

Haha......the name Mubtaahij is hard to announce by the KD announcer, so they won't let him win, haha.....

Did you think Giacomo was a cool name? When I saw Giacomo passing Closing Argument in the stretch, I said to myself, wtf did these horses come from? Lol......I had Afleet Alex wheeled, I wish I went All/All/Afleet Alext/All super, haha......$1 super paid 864k

Although Closing Argument was very playable! So its good to breakdown all these horses........

We still gotta see the post position draw......would be nice if they could do the draw 2 weeks before. Anyone gets injured, put in the next horse, no difference.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Haha......the name Mubtaahij is hard to announce by the KD announcer, so they won't let him win, haha.....

Did you think Giacomo was a cool name? When I saw Giacomo passing Closing Argument in the stretch, I said to myself, wtf did these horses come from? Lol......I had Afleet Alex wheeled, I wish I went All/All/Afleet Alext/All super, haha......$1 super paid 864k

Although Closing Argument was very playable! So its good to breakdown all these horses........

We still gotta see the post position draw......would be nice if they could do the draw 2 weeks before. Anyone gets injured, put in the next horse, no difference.

did not like Giacomo or Mine That Bird based on name although i hate mine that bird for a lot of reason if it isnt for that little damn horse i hit the win bet, exacta, tri, & super... true story


i just hope a horse i like draws the 1 post which is likely since i like 2/3rds of the field

[Stoleitbreezing]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Yes sir.......Frosted IMO had the best race of any horse in their final prep. Never whipped the horse & he came from 2nd last to catch a slow pace, do you know how hard that is to do?

Very hard.......& he was closing in a straight line not showing any tiredness, no lugging at all. Frosted is my #1 horse as of now......#2 is Int Star........only 2 I like on top.

You should also mention how wide he was throughout that race against that dawdling pace. Running well, while wide for an extended period of time against a slow pace is one of my strongest trip notes for a big next out performance. The fact he won under a hand ride and wasn't skiing in the lane tells me a lot about his ability to handle 10F and his quality.