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04-14-2015, 01:09 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Official: your top Kentucky Derby longshots/bombs
bolo and materiality make the list for me.
bolo
i think i can give bolo a mulligan for is last race, and before that dortmund only beat him by a little more than a length.
3rd race off layoff, from an unspectacular race where he didn't have much chance means he'll be very long odds. you're basically getting 40/60-1 on a horse that could have easily been 15/20-1
materiality
i guess he's not that much of a long shot but he sure stepped up to the plate last race when he could have ran like itsaknockout did. 15-20-1 seems pretty solid odds imo
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04-14-2015, 02:12 PM
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#2
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Madefromlucky
Upstart
Danzig Moon
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
Last edited by BlueChip@DRF; 04-14-2015 at 02:14 PM.
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04-14-2015, 02:19 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 379
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Danzig Moon
Keen Ice
Madefromlucky
Frammento
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04-14-2015, 03:42 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 85
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Prospect Park
One Lucky Dane
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04-14-2015, 03:51 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 434
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Golf man
Prospect Park
One Lucky Dane
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Prospect Park is off the derby trail due to injury
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04-14-2015, 03:55 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Frammento
Far Right
Danzig Moon
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04-14-2015, 03:59 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 434
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Frammento
Far Right
Danzig Moon
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To me Far Right & Danzig Moon have the best chance to "clunker" in as someone put in a different post for the tris and supers.
Best Longshots to *WIN* would be
International Star & Frosted
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04-14-2015, 04:05 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing
To me Far Right & Danzig Moon have the best chance to "clunker" in as someone put in a different post for the tris and supers.
Best Longshots to *WIN* would be
International Star & Frosted
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I agree that Frosted or Into Star will win......but the 3 I mentioned are for 2nd & 3rd plce
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04-14-2015, 04:09 PM
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#9
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,269
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How about a rank outsider and under the radar runner like El Kabeir ??
Has changed his running style, finished nicely in his last two, and galloped out very well in the Wood. Shows up every time.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-14-2015, 04:13 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
How about a rank outsider and under the radar runner like El Kabeir ??
Has changed his running style, finished nicely in his last two, and galloped out very well in the Wood. Shows up every time.
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I was looking at him last night......he might hit the superfecta......if there is a wickedly fast pace, then we will see all closers, & EL Kabeir will be one of them.
He did look like he was out for a workout in his last prep.
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04-14-2015, 04:17 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 434
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
I was looking at him last night......he might hit the superfecta......if there is a wickedly fast pace, then we will see all closers, & EL Kabeir will be one of them.
He did look like he was out for a workout in his last prep.
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Him along with the UAE derby horse are the wildcards for me. Many have posted about EK's distance limitations and it does have me wondering if he can get there. The wood is a throw out with him after that insanely slow pace there was no way he was going to close into that from that far back. Probably get 35-1 come derby day, which would be a nice price to throw a couple of bucks on him.
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04-14-2015, 04:28 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stoleitbreezing
Him along with the UAE derby horse are the wildcards for me. Many have posted about EK's distance limitations and it does have me wondering if he can get there. The wood is a throw out with him after that insanely slow pace there was no way he was going to close into that from that far back. Probably get 35-1 come derby day, which would be a nice price to throw a couple of bucks on him.
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If we have a modest pace, he won't be fast enough to close on the faster closers.......thing is, even if we have a fast pace (which I think we will), the far back closers will have to go 7 wide on the turn for home, because all the supposed classy horses with speed will be going backwards, & the closers will need to avoid that chaos.
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04-14-2015, 04:34 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 434
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
If we have a modest pace, he won't be fast enough to close on the faster closers.......thing is, even if we have a fast pace (which I think we will), the far back closers will have to go 7 wide on the turn for home, because all the supposed classy horses with speed will be going backwards, & the closers will need to avoid that chaos.
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Not sure he'll be as far back as other have him. Let's not forget he was running on/near the lead until just recently when the distances got longer. I'm sure they were thinking his best chance to win those longer races were from off the pace. I'm thinking he has enough natural speed in the derby to sit in the 2nd flight of horses possibly in 7th or something into the first turn depending on the post. I agree with you he's not the best of closers, but he does have some professionalism to him, that I can possibly see him be one of those horses trying to stumble up to the wire for the super.
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04-14-2015, 04:48 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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The owners/trainer of El Kabeir haven't decided on the hockey yet for the KD.....they're thinking Borel. Surprisingly, Borel's only time on El Kabeir was at Churchill where he took him wire to wire, lol, go figure!
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04-14-2015, 05:17 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 434
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
The owners/trainer of El Kabeir haven't decided on the hockey yet for the KD.....they're thinking Borel. Surprisingly, Borel's only time on El Kabeir was at Churchill where he took him wire to wire, lol, go figure!
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I read that as well. Will be interesting to see what the connections do with him. But, I do think we do see a change at jockey.
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