Clunkin' Up

[nads1420]

I think its a good idea to start a thread based solely on horses that are solid candidates to 'clunk up'. Who are they? What do you look for in a clunker? Sometimes finding the Went The Day Well or Make Music For Me is as hard if not harder then picking the winner.

As SecretAgentMan pointed out earlier today Danzig Moon is a fantastic clunk up prospect...

[sbcaris]

What exactly do you mean by a clunk up horse? Does he have to be a longshot that closes ground late? or can it be any longshot? Once again, what specifically is a horse that will clunk up?

[nads1420]

for me clunking up is a longer odds horse that will finish 2nd, 3rd, or 4th usually just passing tired horses down the stretch and make the exotic payouts better...


if you look here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...yzs/edit#gid=0

im talking about horses like Imawildandcrazyguy even commanding Curve last year was a clunk up, etc...

[sbcaris]

My guess would be to look for stamina in the pedigree of horses that you know are not good win bets. For examples:

Commanding Curve had a profile of 3-6-12-0-1 (dominant classicity)
Golden Soul had a profile of 11-5-18-4-0 (4 solid points points out stamina)
Went the Day Well had a profile 4-5-15-0-0 (dominant classicity)
Paddy O Prado had a profile of 10-12-12-4-0 (4 solid points yields stamina)
Steppenwolfer had 4-5-13-2-0 (dominant Classicity and 2 solid points)

Note: None of the above looked like Derby winners but because of their stamina in their pedigree they passed tired horses in the stretch to get into the exactas or superfectas.

[letswastemoney]

I'm not really into dosage numbers. I look at the immediate family and can tell from there whether they can get the distance.

Keen Ice might be a good one to clunk up, if he's going.

[f2tornado]

Keep tabs on the Louisiana Derby horses. Duds there have been blowing up exotics lately. They tend to have ascending speed figures and are not slowing down in the stretch. Further, they tend to have Buckpasser-x and/or conduit mare in tail female. With that in mind, I'm not tossing War Story and Stanford from the bottom of my exotics. Both have conduit mare and both had good final fractions. Only gonna cost me a few extra bucks to use them as exacta savers should they run even though I'm not a fan of either. I'll definitely be using Danzig Moon including on top among others. I think he's just as good as Carpe Diem but likely as much as 5x the odds. I'll keep an eye on The Truth or Else if he has good final fractions and gets enough points. If there is a Giacomo type 50-1 bomber this year then that's the one.

[burnsy]

Confucius say: "When betting exactas, clunk ups make the world go round."

Harpoon IPA..........India Pale Ale

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

My guess would be to look for stamina in the pedigree of horses that you know are not good win bets. For examples:

Commanding Curve had a profile of 3-6-12-0-1 (dominant classicity)
Golden Soul had a profile of 11-5-18-4-0 (4 solid points points out stamina)
Went the Day Well had a profile 4-5-15-0-0 (dominant classicity)
Paddy O Prado had a profile of 10-12-12-4-0 (4 solid points yields stamina)
Steppenwolfer had 4-5-13-2-0 (dominant Classicity and 2 solid points)

Note: None of the above looked like Derby winners but because of their stamina in their pedigree they passed tired horses in the stretch to get into the exactas or superfectas.

can you break down those profile numbers.. thats kinda new to me

[BlueChip@DRF]

Any horse I bet heavy for the win. Went the Day Well and Shackleford are prime examples of who I had strong for the win.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by nads1420

can you break down those profile numbers.. thats kinda new to me

i did some reading up on the dosage index... thanks wikipedia.. but where do you find these numbers?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by nads1420

i did some reading up on the dosage index... thanks wikipedia.. but where do you find these numbers?

LINK

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

LINK

thanks man... american pharaoh toward the bottom if you sort by dosage points also would suggest Made From Lucky is a clunker candidate if he gets in

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by nads1420

thanks man... american pharaoh toward the bottom if you sort by dosage points also would suggest Made From Lucky is a clunker candidate if he gets in

If you need a key for the 4th spot in your superfecta (just add it to your trifecta), use my "top pick" when I make it.

[BlueChip@DRF]

You could use Dortmund and Materiality in the bottom of the exotics as those two have never lost ground in the stretch in any of their races. Any with a turn-of-foot that seems to be sneaking under the radar?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

You could use Dortmund and Materiality in the bottom of the exotics as those two have never lost ground in the stretch in any of their races. Any with a turn-of-foot that seems to be sneaking under the radar?

Yeah, I'm definitely gonna put Dortmund in my tri's & supers.......

I know ItsaKnockout ran a terrible race last out, but is there any chance he pulls an Invisible Ink on us, I mean that was Pletcher's too......