***Road To Derby Plays*** - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

SecretAgentMan · 03-11-2015, 05:14 PM

Another Kentucky Derby is upon us, & with a little bit over 4 weeks of prep races remaining, it remains to be seen who the favorites & co-favorites & what bottom feeders can get into the KD.

(Dortmund) looks very good, he's a big horse, & has plenty of room to still get better. I think his best races will come at the age 4, & he's undefeated at 5 for 5, with the Santa Anita derby pending.

He will be tested by the injured but supposedly healed Texas Red on April 4. (Texas Red) gets in with a 2nd place, & possibly with a 3rd as well.......he has 12 points as of now. 3rd place gets him 20 points, so 32 points total should get him in, but after that ridiculous race of 7f entered by his trainer, instead of finding him a 1 1/16 race.

IMO, Texas Red struck gold when he won the BCJ G1 race........he's a decent horse, but IMO, he's not a KD winner.

(Carpe Diem) is interesting, he ran 2nd to Texas Red in the BCJ & beat out Upstart by a nose for 2nd. This is one of Pletchers top 3 yr old horses this year & by the looks if it, Pletcher will try to fit in as many as 5 or 6 derby horses, but his less talented need the points to get in. Carpe Diem is already thanks to a great run in the Tampa Bay derby, although his competition wasn't that great. I still want to see another race by this horse, & I believe his next race is in the Bluegrass at Keenland on April 4.

SecretAgentMan · 03-11-2015, 05:50 PM

(American Pharaoh) is IMO the best front runner amongst the 3 yr old males. Too bad this horse got injured about a week before entering the gate in the BCJ vs Texas Red, Upstart & Carpe Diem. I really would have liked to have seen him stayed healthy & ran.

I hope he's ready to go & wins the Rebel decisively, then comes back healthy & wins the Arkansas derby in April. If he completes these tasks, wins & stays healthy, he might be the favorite come derby day. Dortmund should handle his competition in the SA derby on April 4, which will make him undefeated, & with Carpe Diem winning at Keenland April 4, we will possibly be looking vat 3 co-favorites.

If my above scenarios pan out, the favorite derby day will be a like 4-1, so these horses will offer a lot of value for the public. Dortmund isn't a Cali Chrome, so let's not compare them. I'm assuming Baffert will rate Dortmund in the SA derby getting him ready for the KD.

(Firing Line) is a beast & should have beaten Dortmund in one of his back to back losses, by a head twice. Firing Line had a 1 length lead on Dortmund in the RBLewis G3 race & gave up the lead after Dortmund closed strong on him. The 1st loss was more dramatic at Los Alamitos, which seems Dortmund doesn't like horses passing him, qualities of a warrior.

Firing Line had a chance to set up a rematch for a 3rd time but his trainer is making the right move to stay away from Dortmund by going to Sunland to get the sure points, & not to battle the stretch & run his eyeballs out. 1st or 2nd & Firing Line is in the KD, thanks to the supposed easy race at Sunland.

(Upstart) ran a decent race in the BCJ vs Texas Red & Carpe Diem, although losing by over 6 lengths, he was coming out of the 11 hole & breaking slow out of the gate didn't help his cause. It was also his first time at a two turn race of his career.

Upstart won his last race handily IMO, & after watching the race several times, the stewards should be investigated for cheating. Frosted clearly on the rail came out into Upstart bumping him which made Upstart come out a bit in front of Itsaknockout, but Upstart from what I saw didn't cut off Itsaknockout, the horse didn't pull up or check.......Upstart clearly was the better horse that day & won easily.

Upstart will be looking to get revenge on March 28th in the Florida Derby. There will be a few other horses in the race looking to win some points to advance into the KD........the only thing that looked bad in the FOY was the final time of 1:46......the first 3 quarters of the race were legit, so I'm assuming with the bumping, & what not down the stretch has more to do with that slow final time.

Also, its been dry at Gulfstream this year, not much rain, I think that may have something to do with the times this year, as they are no where close to the times of last year, or the year before. I'm ready to see what fractions these horses in the Florida Derby put up come March 28.

Spiderman · 03-11-2015, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

(American Pharaoh) is IMO the best front runner amongst the 3 yr old males. Too bad this horse got injured about a week before entering the gate in the BCJ vs Texas Red, Upstart & Carpe Diem. I really would have liked to have seen him stayed healthy & ran.

I hope he's ready to go & wins the Rebel decisively, then comes back healthy & wins the Arkansas derby in April. If he completes these tasks, wins & stays healthy, he might be the favorite come derby day. Dortmund should handle his competition in the SA derby on April 4, which will make him undefeated, & with Carpe Diem winning at Keenland April 4, we will possibly be looking vat 3 co-favorites.

If my above scenarios pan out, the favorite derby day will be a like 4-1, so these horses will offer a lot of value for the public. Dortmund isn't a Cali Chrome, so let's not compare them. I'm assuming Baffert will rate Dortmund in the SA derby getting him ready for the KD.

(Firing Line) is a beast & should have beaten Dortmund in one of his back to back losses, by a head twice. Firing Line had a 1 length lead on Dortmund in the RBLewis G3 race & gave up the lead after Dortmund closed strong on him. The 1st loss was more dramatic at Los Alamitos, which seems Dortmund doesn't like horses passing him, qualities of a warrior.

Firing Line had a chance to set up a rematch for a 3rd time but his trainer is making the right move to stay away from Dortmund by going to Sunland to get the sure points, & not to battle the stretch & run his eyeballs out. 1st or 2nd & Firing Line is in the KD, thanks to the supposed easy race at Sunland.

(Upstart) ran a decent race in the BCJ vs Texas Red & Carpe Diem, although losing by over 6 lengths, he was coming out of the 11 hole & breaking slow out of the gate didn't help his cause. It was also his first time at a two turn race of his career.

Upstart won his last race handily IMO, & after watching the race several times, the stewards should be investigated for cheating. Frosted clearly on the rail came out into Upstart bumping him which made Upstart come out a bit in front of Itsaknockout, but Upstart from what I saw didn't cut off Itsaknockout, the horse didn't pull up or check.......Upstart clearly was the better horse that day & won easily.

Upstart will be looking to get revenge on March 28th in the Florida Derby. There will be a few other horses in the race looking to win some points to advance into the KD........the only thing that looked bad in the FOY was the final time of 1:46......the first 3 quarters of the race were legit, so I'm assuming with the bumping, & what not down the stretch has more to do with that slow final time.

Also, its been dry at Gulfstream this year, not much rain, I think that may have something to do with the times this year, as they are no where close to the times of last year, or the year before. I'm ready to see what fractions these horses in the Florida Derby put up come March 28.

Looked at PPs for upcoming Rebel. American Pharoah has a spectacular workout pattern with real race horse times. He should be prepared to take control and coast home. Only possible upsetter is the private purchase, 2nd start for Pletcher, Madefromlucky, who loves distance.

The Derby will be a battle-royale on the front end. The best position for Dortmund and Firing Line would be in the 2nd flight, stalking the heat on the lead.

SecretAgentMan · 03-11-2015, 06:57 PM

(El Kabeir) very interesting horse. Has won 3 of past 4 races, & with Far From Over winning his race in spectacular fashion, it only makes El Kabeir look that much better. He won his first graded stakes race at Churchill at 1 1/16 wire to wire.

He wired the field in his first two wins, & since then, has rated well & stalked the pace to win his past 2 of 3 races. IMO, the only way this horse wins the derby is with a hot pace up front & closes on them like Giacomo or MTB. If he goes to the front, he will burn up in the KD.

(International Star) this horse won his maiden race on turf, won the Grey Cup G3 in Canada on polytrack, & won his past two races in closing fashion, the style possibly needed this year with the front runners & all the speed that will be up front going in the KD.

(Mr Z) Lukas gonna try to win another derby with a horse thats a consistent money maker but cant win. He has 4 seconds & 3 thirds.......the only win coming in his 1st race of his career, a maiden race. He ran 3 G1 races & 4 G3 races.......with one G2 in his young career.

10 starts is quite a lot now a days, but that's Lukas, he runs his horses into the ground. Gone are the days where horses were constantly raced. He ran quite well coming in 3rd by a neck to Firing Line & Dortmund. He raced pretty much vs everyone in the top 20 list of derby entrants. You can't argue this horse doesn't give his all every race, but I think he's in too deep on derby day.

(Itsaknockout) got a gift by the stewards in his last race......I doubt he gets lucky like this in the KD. IMO, he doesn't have enough races under his belt going intothe KD.......llet's see his true colors on March 28 vs Upstart.

(Far From Over) this horse pulled a Touch Gold, breaking bad, giving his opponents a 10 length lead, & still winning the race...... He's too lightly raced & doesn't have the experience to win the KD, BUT, this horse fits perfectly for the Belmont Stakes. If he races in the KD, look for him to close late for a possible 4th or 5th place finish.......he will skip the Preakness, & then go into Belmont fresh & ready to win.

SecretAgentMan · 03-11-2015, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiderman

Looked at PPs for upcoming Rebel. American Pharoah has a spectacular workout pattern with real race horse times. He should be prepared to take control and coast home. Only possible upsetter is the private purchase, 2nd start for Pletcher, Madefromlucky, who loves distance.

The Derby will be a battle-royale on the front end. The best position for Dortmund and Firing Line would be in the 2nd flight, stalking the heat on the lead.

Yes, it will be crazy up front with all the speed. Dortmund & Firing Line better rate & stalk the leaders, or they will be cooked up.

I'm ready for the excitement to begin this Saturday with the Rebel G2 stakes.......American Pharaoh has been working out really well, hoping to see it convert over in a win this Saturday.

SecretAgentMan · 03-11-2015, 07:50 PM

My plays for the upcoming prep races:

Rebel Stakes: American Pharaoh (needs to win to impress his owners & trainer, but will also run in the Arkansas derby on April 11 even if he does really well, gotta have one more race)

March 22:

Sunland Derby: Firing Line (should smoke this field like a pack of Kools)

March 28:

Louisiana Derby: Keen Ice (my long shot of all prep races)

Florida Derby: Upstart (should get revenge on Itsaknockout & get the win by 1.5 to 2 lengths)
________________________________________________

April 4:

Santa Anita Derby: Dortmund (will Baffert have him cranked up to win? I think Baffert goes for the win, he won't be holding back. 6 for 6 going into the KD for Dortmund.

Wood Memorial: (El Kabeir will be the favorite, but this race is wide open IMO, so its anyone's race)

Bluegrass: Carpe Diem (he solidifies his presence amongst the elite of this years 3 yr olds heading into the KD with a win here.
__________________________________________________ ____

April 11:

Arkansas Derby: American Pharaoh (I expect him to win this convincingly throwing any doubt in anyone's mind about his health out the window.

Lexington: (don't much much stock in this race much anymore)

UAE Derby: (I care less about this race than the Lexington)

letswastemoney · 03-11-2015, 07:58 PM

First Lexington on dirt in a long time. The race might hold some significance now.

SecretAgentMan · 03-11-2015, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

First Lexington on dirt in a long time. The race might hold some significance now.

The winner gets only 10 points, so we might see a horse making its final stance trying to win a KD entry by racing in Lexington.

I'm glad to see Keenland move back to dirt. All these major prep races should always be run on dirt.

I'm thinking it will be no namers running in the Lexington making a final push towards making the KD. I remember Charismatic winning that race & posting a 108 beyer to make it in with his earnings. Lukas sure knows how to turn claimers into a possible triple crown threat, haha!

rastajenk · 03-12-2015, 07:56 AM

So the Lexington is now three weeks out from the Derby, not two? And on dirt, no less. That could have a small effect on some of the players' game plans; it may have a different feel than most recent Lexingtons. We might see something improve a lot at the right time, you never know. I wouldn't write off the Lexington a month away.

It seems that the Blue Grass is a week earlier, too. I hadn't gotten into it enough to notice the changes.

SecretAgentMan · 03-12-2015, 11:50 AM

I'm not writing off the Lexington as much as I don't care much for it. Its only given us 1 derby winner that needed to win the Lexington just to make the derby, & that horse was in a claiming race .......everyone knows about Charismatic.

You really have to be at the edge of the bubble looking to get into the derby for the Lexington to mean anything g since its only worth 10 points to the winner. What it will do is cause chaos at the bottom part of the point standings........I definitely like the point standings tons better than the old earnings scenario.

The Lexington pushed back to 3 weeks before the derby actually will help those horses coming out of that race to rest a bit. I was glad to see the Bluegrass pushed back to 4 weeks.......I would like to see the Arkansas Derby do the same.......that would be 4 awesome prep races in one day. Horses are different now a days than they once were, & they need several weeks to rest.

To make it interesting, move the Arkansas derby back to the same day as the SA derby, Bluegrass & Wood.......then make the Lexington a 50 point race to the winner.

Investorater · 03-12-2015, 03:08 PM

Maybe American Pharoah will win The Rebel by about as many lengths (9 1/2) as Bodemeister (same stable) did after the Arkansas Derby. (2012) (the win was declared by me on this board)

I now proclaim that *DORTMUND* (*Dorty) (The Dort) (DortMan*) is of right now my only KY Derby choice for the Win/Place/Show..........

*Heard in this post first.\O/

SecretAgentMan · 03-12-2015, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Investorater

Maybe American Pharoah will win The Rebel by about as many lengths (9 1/2) as Bodemeister (same stable) did after the Arkansas Derby. (2012) (the win was declared by me on this board)

I now proclaim that *DORTMUND* (*Dorty) (The Dort) (DortMan*) is of right now my only KY Derby choice for the Win/Place/Show..........

*Heard in this post first.\O/

Dortmund, aye........he is a beast of a race horse. I know he's 5 for 5 looking to win 6 in a row, but I think he will be a better race horse at age 4 & up. He's still filling out & IMO, will be an amazing horse to watch .......good luck on your pick, but I won't be backing him on derby day.

Investorater · 03-12-2015, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Dortmund, aye........he is a beast of a race horse. I know he's 5 for 5 looking to win 6 in a row, but I think he will be a better race horse at age 4 & up. He's still filling out & IMO, will be an amazing horse to watch for.......good luck on your pick, but I won't be backing him on derby day.

CoR-R-R-R-R-R-R-ect. . . . . . . . . .and Thanks.

SecretAgentMan · 03-13-2015, 03:00 PM

American Pharaoh is 1/2 in the ML & I think he wins easily. A tougher task for him will be April 11th, & I think he wins that race as well.

Baffert definitely starts at least 2 horses in the derby while Pletcher is looking to insert at least 3

I've been looking at Lukas's horse Mr Z......reminds me of Giacomo, can never win in his preps but is guaranteed in the money. He has a lot of experience & will be an interesting horse going forward. I don't think he's capable of winning at a distance of a 1 1/4 race.

Bring on the April races....

SecretAgentMan · 03-14-2015, 07:44 PM

Just as I thought & most people thought, & we enjoyed watching American Pharaoh toying with the Rebel field & opening up to win wire to wire by nearly 9 lengths........

Great workout/run by Pharaoh & he showed he's back in track........I clearly think he will win the Arkansas derby.

Now Baffert clearly has the 2 favs going into the KD. If Pharaoh wins as I expect him in the Ark derby, IMO, he will be the fav over Dortmund. Will be very interesting how Baffert races both Dortmund & Pharaoh in the derby.

Pharaoh clearly likes the lead, while Dortmund is capable of being rated.