gain ground

[sbcaris]

Here is an angle that gets around 70% Derby winners from only 38% of the starters: Wager only on horses that gain ground from the 6 furlong point to the finish of a major 9 furlong prep race. This means if the horse was 5 lengths behind the leader at the 6 furlong point he must be less than 5 lengths behind the winner at the finish of the race.

Rational: Horses like this have good finishing power. As opposed to horses that tire in the final 3 furlongs of a 9 furlong prep race.

There were exceptions to the above rule-- A few of them follow: Charismatic, Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, Mine That Bird, War Emblem, Ferdinand, Spend a Buck.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Dortmund and Materiality are the only two who have not lost ground from the stretch-to-finish in all their races.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Dortmund and Materiality are the only two who have not lost ground from the stretch-to-finish in all their races.

I don't think he's saying which horses haven't lost ground......he's saying which horses have gained ground in the final 6 furlongs.

Im assuming you can put Dortmund & Materiality in the category as well.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I don't think he's saying which horses haven't lost ground......he's saying which horses have gained ground in the final 6 furlongs.

Im assuming you can put Dortmund & Materiality in the category as well.

Ah, I meant that as a sidenote.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Here is an angle that gets around 70% Derby winners from only 38% of the starters: Wager only on horses that gain ground from the 6 furlong point to the finish of a major 9 furlong prep race. This means if the horse was 5 lengths behind the leader at the 6 furlong point he must be less than 5 lengths behind the winner at the finish of the race.

Rational: Horses like this have good finishing power. As opposed to horses that tire in the final 3 furlongs of a 9 furlong prep race.

There were exceptions to the above rule-- A few of them follow: Charismatic, Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, Mine That Bird, War Emblem, Ferdinand, Spend a Buck.

Sbcaris, do you have a list of these horses for this year or are you waiting until the Ark derby is played out?

Edit: made a list below, correct me if I'm wrong with the list of horses........

[SecretAgentMan]

So Upstart lost ground, he doesn't apply to this method......


Materiality

Dortmund

Frosted

Dubai Sky (scratched)

Danzig Moon

Carpe Diem

International Star

War Story?

El Kabeir (lost ground)

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Here is an angle that gets around 70% Derby winners from only 38% of the starters: Wager only on horses that gain ground from the 6 furlong point to the finish of a major 9 furlong prep race. This means if the horse was 5 lengths behind the leader at the 6 furlong point he must be less than 5 lengths behind the winner at the finish of the race.

Rational: Horses like this have good finishing power. As opposed to horses that tire in the final 3 furlongs of a 9 furlong prep race.

There were exceptions to the above rule-- A few of them follow: Charismatic, Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, Mine That Bird, War Emblem, Ferdinand, Spend a Buck.

I've read this like 10 times, & can't figure out why you have War Emblem & Charismatic on that list?

Is your angle on their last prep race? Or is it every race in their career? I'm confused.......also, 3 of those 7 horses you listed won 2 of the triple crown races that year.

[sbcaris]

Most of those you listed fit the criteria. War Story and El Kabeir do not fit. Frammento fits this angle. I still have to see the past performances for all starters in the Ark Derby to complete the list.

[sbcaris]

SAM: The angle (gain ground) only applies to the big 5 prep races so War Emblem who ran in the Illinois Derby did not qualify and Charismatic who lost ground in the Santa Anita Derby his only big 5 prep race did not qualify.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Using Brisnet PPs, where can I see where a horse is at the 6 furlong pole?

[sbcaris]

The Brisnet past performances for a 9 furlong race uses the second call (2C) as the six furlong point of the race. If you look at American Pharaoh you will see that he is one length behind the leader at the 6 furlong call of the Ark Derby.

[Valuist]

What if the horse is gaining ground only because the race is falling apart? In that case, the horse isn't as good as it looks on paper, and would be a decided underlay.