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Old 03-13-2019, 10:48 PM   #61
jocko699
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I could be wrong but I think I heard that Juddemote sold off the broodmare and sibling of Hidden Scroll. That rarely happens if the breeder is high on a horse.
When did Juddmonte sell the broodmare? Was in before or after the January 26, 2019 maiden win?
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Old 03-13-2019, 10:53 PM   #62
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When did Juddmonte sell the broodmare? Was in before or after the January 26, 2019 maiden win?
2017
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:10 AM   #63
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I disagree with pretty much your entire post. I feel like you have some kind of bias against Hidden Scroll and that it might be impacting your opinion on him which is fine.

But if Country House is green (I actually agree with this) why do you feel he will get it with more racing, but you’ve basically written Hidden Scroll off as a head strong one dimensional speed ball after two races?

His first out romp was bias aided a bit, but the runner up was 11th early, so I think people are overestimating just how bias aided it was. He ran a hole in the wind because he’s a very good horse. He was beat about 3 for all the money in the FOY. The horse he dueled with was beaten about 30 lengths. You’re acting like Hidden Scroll was up the track.

I’m not into comparing raw times for horses in different years...but according to Timeform the first 7 finishers in Hidden Scroll’s maiden race matched or exceeded their fig next out. It was obviously a strong race.

Lightly raced horses can improve a lot from start to start. Especially those with raw talent in a strong barn. FWIW I think you’re grossly overestimating Tacticus who had a dream set up and trip in a bad race at Tampa.
I don't have a bias against Hidden Scroll Mr. Hoss.
He just doesn't impress me very much.
In this thread before the Fountain of Youth, I outlined my reasons why I thought he might not be as good as many thought.......and running fourth @ 6-5 sort of backed that up.
As I stated with Country House,I feel he's on uptick....my opinion is he's improving.....he seems much more settled and further along than Scroll.
Tacitus I really like........I think he's solid.
FWIW: In the Tampa Bay Derby thread (before the race) I stated why I thought Tacitus was heading in the right direction,made him my race selection(at a solid price)and also said he was Mott's best 3yo.
So since I'm not striking out with my logic..........I'll hope I continue to have it right.
Peace.
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:50 AM   #64
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I think Tacitus's win was due as much to luck as it was talent. I liked him going in, but only because it looked to be a hot pace that could not last.
If HS can throttle back a bit early one and save some for the late run, I doubt many, from the preps so far, will be near him at the wire. Even finishing 4th, he has the best TFUS fig of all so far.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:05 AM   #65
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I don't have a bias against Hidden Scroll Mr. Hoss.
He just doesn't impress me very much.
In this thread before the Fountain of Youth, I outlined my reasons why I thought he might not be as good as many thought.......and running fourth @ 6-5 sort of backed that up.
As I stated with Country House,I feel he's on uptick....my opinion is he's improving.....he seems much more settled and further along than Scroll.
Tacitus I really like........I think he's solid.
FWIW: In the Tampa Bay Derby thread (before the race) I stated why I thought Tacitus was heading in the right direction,made him my race selection(at a solid price)and also said he was Mott's best 3yo.
So since I'm not striking out with my logic..........I'll hope I continue to have it right.
Peace.
Again I disagree with most of this. I actually feel like Hidden Scroll validated his debut with his 4th in the FOY. You don’t have to win a race to run well. More often than not the winner of a particular race isn’t the horse that ran the best due to pace, trip, dynamics.

Country House is more settled because he has very little early speed. But I’m still not sure why he has the right to improve and Hidden Scroll doesn’t.

We always seem to favor horses we were right about before a race. Nice pick with Tacitus. I just disagree he’s Mott’s best 3 year old (figs do as well) and think he had everything go his way in Tampa. I’m going to need to see him do it again against better. Appreciate the discussion though. It’d be boring if we all agreed on everything.
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Old 03-15-2019, 06:48 PM   #66
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It suddenly occurred to me that now days people only accept wins. 30 years ago HS fourth place finish would be judged a learning and conditioning success!
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Old 03-15-2019, 07:12 PM   #67
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It suddenly occurred to me that now days people only accept wins. 30 years ago HS fourth place finish would be judged a learning and conditioning success!
30 years ago Hidden Scroll would have been in a first condition allowance, a second condition allowance, and a third condition allowance before tackling stakes company.

Whatever his talent-level may be, it is basically a foregone conclusion his 2019 campaign (and possibly his career) will be over before the end of the year if they move forward on the Derby trail. If he does make out at 4 it won't be for too long.

Curlin might be the only horse with a similar beginning to his career that was able to see out one--never mind two--full campaigns.

If you wanna give some leeway, Seeking The Gold saw out a full 3yo campaign (but made only 2 starts at 4), but technically, he started once as a 2yo.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:28 AM   #68
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It suddenly occurred to me that now days people only accept wins.
weekenders attending their first stakes races on a first date at the track
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Old 03-24-2019, 10:55 AM   #69
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So the horse Hidden Scroll dueled with in the FOY returned yesterday to upset the Hutcheson.
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Old 03-24-2019, 11:09 AM   #70
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So the horse Hidden Scroll dueled with in the FOY returned yesterday to upset the Hutcheson.
All this proves is that HS can be a great sprinter. Until he shows ability to rate and control his speed he is a complete gamble at route distances.
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Old 03-24-2019, 11:15 AM   #71
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All this proves is that HS can be a great sprinter. Until he shows ability to rate and control his speed he is a complete gamble at route distances.
No it proves the horse he dueled with is an okay sprinter. But it definitely flatters Hidden Scroll.
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Old 03-24-2019, 04:24 PM   #72
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I keep hearing this horse is going to be such a good bet in the Florida Derby and maybe they will get 8/1....this horse is not going to be more than 5/2 in that race.
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Old 03-24-2019, 08:38 PM   #73
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I keep hearing this horse is going to be such a good bet in the Florida Derby and maybe they will get 8/1....this horse is not going to be more than 5/2 in that race.
Who is saying 8-1?
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Old 03-26-2019, 09:35 AM   #74
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Who is saying 8-1?
some guy, hopes to get 8/1.

I dont think serious players think that, but I have seen several prominent people mention how good a bet he will be due to running 4th and the race dynamics. I guess I just have different ideas about what is a good bet.
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Old 03-26-2019, 09:52 AM   #75
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some guy, hopes to get 8/1.

I dont think serious players think that, but I have seen several prominent people mention how good a bet he will be due to running 4th and the race dynamics. I guess I just have different ideas about what is a good bet.
Some random twitter guy?

Who are the prominent people you mention? I can’t imagine him being a fair price for a win bet.
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