HIDDEN SCROLL

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I think they've been compared 947 times since Hidden Scroll's best 'Mendelssohn impression/parody'.

The performance comparisons to this point are fair. There were and are some uncanny similarities through two starts however nobody is calling Hidden Scroll the next Justify.

These are the splits through a mile for the second out for each horse. This is not apples to apples since Justify ran a mile and Scroll ran 1 1/16 however they are extremely similar. Justify was crowned the Derby winner in Pool 3 after posting these decelerating splits while Hidden Scroll is declared an also ran after posting almost identical numbers against classier horses.

Hidden Scroll... 22.89/24.73/26.42 (107 Equibase figure)
Justify............. 22.68/24.54/26.09 (108 Equibase figure)

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

comparisons are fair.

Hidden Scroll's debut has some vague similarities to Mendellsohn's UAE Derby, in that both were amazing, sensational, unbelievable, career-tops, aided by a significant bias.


that's about it. The rest is pareidolia.

[Tom]

Wait for the TFUS figs - they will tell the true story.
Raw fractions mean nothing.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Tom

Wait for the TFUS figs - they will tell the true story.
Raw fractions mean nothing.

We did. Hidden Scroll posted the highest TimeformUS figure of the prep season. I posted the Equibase figures for the second race of each horse because raw figures are indeed limited in context.

Not worth any additional time from me for debate. There is a reason the comparison was used "947 times". Not everyone has a California or Baffert fetish where everything else is considered inferior.

[big frank]

I wouldn't give up on Hidden Scroll yet ! He outworked the tampa derby winner easily every time they trained.........That is why i bet Tacitus on sat....Mott will work with this horse and i believe he will be Very tough to beat next time..........Scroll is the kind of horse Mott could work on and he will be way better next out , although his last race was not that bad considering the crazy pace he set and he didn't stop to a walk and showed some fight...I still say he is the most talented 3yo there is

[big frank]

I know Grunder at tampa gets beat up all the time here ,, But he didn't pick up Tacitus in the derby until the last 50 yards.............As a race caller how could it take you that long to notice that horse ???? It is amazing how bad this guy is !

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Turf bred.

Will be something to see at a mile on the turf.

Allan

Wish he was prepping for the Guineas and the st James at ascot and not the derby.

One day I will get my wish and see him on a surface that he was bred for, not the nasty old dirt.

He.ll never get 10f in a million years.

Allan

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I like this horse for the Kings Bishop

There's some obvious talent there. The way he was used early in the FOY, he didn't back up that badly. I think they'll almost certainly keep him routing for awhile longer and try to get his speed under control. I'm not sure I like him going 10F (especially at this stage), but I wouldn't shorten him up until he convinced me he's more of a sprinter/miler.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The performance comparisons to this point are fair. There were and are some uncanny similarities through two starts however nobody is calling Hidden Scroll the next Justify.

These are the splits through a mile for the second out for each horse. This is not apples to apples since Justify ran a mile and Scroll ran 1 1/16 however they are extremely similar. Justify was crowned the Derby winner in Pool 3 after posting these decelerating splits while Hidden Scroll is declared an also ran after posting almost identical numbers against classier horses.

Hidden Scroll... 22.89/24.73/26.42 (107 Equibase figure)
Justify............. 22.68/24.54/26.09 (108 Equibase figure)

You have to look at where both Justify/Hidden Scroll were/are at.
Justify put up those numbers as a complete professional.
He waited patiently for a cue from Mike Smith,when MS cued him ever so slightly he glided up and in the blink of an eye and the race was over.
Justify was barely in an open gallop after his cue.......and then Smith put him away for another day.
Justify wasn't even tightened by Baffert for that race.......and he did it easily,probably cranked up to about fifty percent by Baffert.
Hidden Scroll put up his numbers as a run off,who has no clue how to relax when racing(or working) at all.......and it shows.
Jockey Rosario is one of the best ever at understanding what a horse can and can't do.
He knew HS can't be rated.........so he had to let him go.
HS ran off like a rabbit in the FOY.......and that's a fact.
Until he proves otherwise,that's all he is.
In terms of him outworking Tacitus.....it means nothing.
Speed crazy rabbits that can't be rated are almost always going to outwork
horses that can settle.......that's just the way it is.
Right now Tacitus is a much better horse than HS.
Now....
Can Hidden Scroll turn in to a great horse ?
Beats me........right now he's nowhere near it.
And it's worth repeating......his maiden romp was with a triple bias in his corner......that makes his victory counterfeit.
His FOY ?.........what everybody saw at 1/16th poll is what he is.

[taxicab]

Javier gets the mount for the FLA Derby.
So now we know the Scroll is off the pace.
I think the public still likes him.
I'm thinking he'll be the second choice.

[Dahossdaboss]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I would be surprised if HS comes back in another Derby prep.
Here's his come home final three quarters & final 1/16th in the Fountain of Youth:
22.4/24.3/26.2....[7.3].
That is not a good line....

Isn’t that more of a function of how fast he ran early?

Hidden Scroll was never going to live up to the hype of his maiden win, but I thought he ran really well. What everyone seems to be dismissing is it was his second lifetime start and he has one of the best trainers ever calling the shots. I can’t imagine he won’t get a lot out of the FOY and think start number 3 shows us exactly what he is...which is a very, very good horse.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

Isn’t that more of a function of how fast he ran early?

Of course it is. Scroll's FOY reminded me of Bodemeister chasing a bomber in the 2012 renewal of the San Felipe. He got fried and ended up finishing about a length behind the winner Creative Cause. Bode ultimately bounced back and crushed the Ark Derby field next out. Not saying this will happen but it's too early to write off this horse. I'm skeptical he can last the 10F Derby distance however the way that race has been running this decade his speed could very well hold up for a share.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

Isn’t that more of a function of how fast he ran early?

Hidden Scroll was never going to live up to the hype of his maiden win, but I thought he ran really well. What everyone seems to be dismissing is it was his second lifetime start and he has one of the best trainers ever calling the shots. I can’t imagine he won’t get a lot out of the FOY and think start number 3 shows us exactly what he is...which is a very, very good horse.

Yes.
It's absolutely a function of how fast he ran early.
Therein lies his problem.
As of right now,HS hasn't shown he understands what he's doing.
His first out romp was due to his raw speed(cashing in on two biases),and his love of mud(the Danzig line is giant in the goo).
All Rosario had to do was point him in the right direction,and the race was over.
The race didn't test Scroll........I don't think he got anything(mentally) out of his gallop.
And it showed in the FOY........Scroll just ran off......like the time before.......you could see it coming.
The final result was different,because the circumstances were much different.
If Scroll would of took a step forward,his FOY come home's would of resembled last years speedy winner Promises Fulfilled.
Here are PF numbers from last year:
24.59/24.21/24.99/6.58..............even and professional splits for a speed horse.
The other way I look at Hidden Scroll is comparing him to Mott's other top 3yo's.
In order of where they are:
1) Tacitus: not even close.......he's far ahead of Mott's other two.
Mott started him earlier,he shows a stride that covers a lot of ground easier than most..........and most importantly,you can actually see him improving race to race......and figuring it out in his races.
In his first race he showed talent,but he only ran in spots......quite green he was.
In his second race he was still kind of dicey early........but you could see the light bulb go on his last quarter.
In the Tampa Bay Derby he was polished.......he's figured it out.
Now he's got to get the gate right.......he's been kind of clumsy out of the gate in all three of his races.
2) Country House: He's talented.......and he's really green.
But he'll settle in for you,and that's an indication he's on his way .........he'll get it right with more racing........he's really talented.
3) Hidden Scroll.......Incomplete.
All he's shown is blazing speed.
He's a far cry from understanding what he's supposed to do.
He's going to have to be a new animal in the Florida Derby to be something.
And I don't think he can flip the switch considering where he's at off of his first two......I think it's asking a lot of him to turn in to a professional overnight.
That being said........a lot of people see something in him that I don't........and I've been wrong many times before.
So if he improves a ton in his FLA Derby...........I tip my hat to him,and consider him a player.

[Dahossdaboss]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Yes.
It's absolutely a function of how fast he ran early.
Therein lies his problem.
As of right now,HS hasn't shown he understands what he's doing.
His first out romp was due to his raw speed(cashing in on two biases),and his love of mud(the Danzig line is giant in the goo).
All Rosario had to do was point him in the right direction,and the race was over.
The race didn't test Scroll........I don't think he got anything(mentally) out of his gallop.
And it showed in the FOY........Scroll just ran off......like the time before.......you could see it coming.
The final result was different,because the circumstances were much different.
If Scroll would of took a step forward,his FOY come home's would of resembled last years speedy winner Promises Fulfilled.
Here are PF numbers from last year:
24.59/24.21/24.99/6.58..............even and professional splits for a speed horse.
The other way I look at Hidden Scroll is comparing him to Mott's other top 3yo's.
In order of where they are:
1) Tacitus: not even close.......he's far ahead of Mott's other two.
Mott started him earlier,he shows a stride that covers a lot of ground easier than most..........and most importantly,you can actually see him improving race to race......and figuring it out in his races.
In his first race he showed talent,but he only ran in spots......quite green he was.
In his second race he was still kind of dicey early........but you could see the light bulb go on his last quarter.
In the Tampa Bay Derby he was polished.......he's figured it out.
Now he's got to get the gate right.......he's been kind of clumsy out of the gate in all three of his races.
2) Country House: He's talented.......and he's really green.
But he'll settle in for you,and that's an indication he's on his way .........he'll get it right with more racing........he's really talented.
3) Hidden Scroll.......Incomplete.
All he's shown is blazing speed.
He's a far cry from understanding what he's supposed to do.
He's going to have to be a new animal in the Florida Derby to be something.
And I don't think he can flip the switch considering where he's at off of his first two......I think it's asking a lot of him to turn in to a professional overnight.
That being said........a lot of people see something in him that I don't........and I've been wrong many times before.
So if he improves a ton in his FLA Derby...........I tip my hat to him,and consider him a player.

I disagree with pretty much your entire post. I feel like you have some kind of bias against Hidden Scroll and that it might be impacting your opinion on him which is fine.

But if Country House is green (I actually agree with this) why do you feel he will get it with more racing, but you’ve basically written Hidden Scroll off as a head strong one dimensional speed ball after two races?

His first out romp was bias aided a bit, but the runner up was 11th early, so I think people are overestimating just how bias aided it was. He ran a hole in the wind because he’s a very good horse. He was beat about 3 for all the money in the FOY. The horse he dueled with was beaten about 30 lengths. You’re acting like Hidden Scroll was up the track.

I’m not into comparing raw times for horses in different years...but according to Timeform the first 7 finishers in Hidden Scroll’s maiden race matched or exceeded their fig next out. It was obviously a strong race.

Lightly raced horses can improve a lot from start to start. Especially those with raw talent in a strong barn. FWIW I think you’re grossly overestimating Tacticus who had a dream set up and trip in a bad race at Tampa.

[1GCFAN]

I could be wrong but I think I heard that Juddemote sold off the broodmare and sibling of Hidden Scroll. That rarely happens if the breeder is high on a horse.