What are some of the things Handicappers Can’t Possibly Know?????

[andymays]

When we discuss Handicapping we tend to focus on the things we know or think we all know. I have said in previous posts that Handicapping is the art/science of educated guessing. And I’m sure that when some read the word “guessing” they may be offended or insulted. I think we can all agree that even the very best of Handicappers are wrong far more often than they right and this is in spite of all the information that is available to us. There must be things that we are all missing or just can’t know right?

What are some of the things we can’t know when we are handicapping a race?

Unless there is some type of pre race interview we don’t know when the Connections plan to change the Horses running style. It could also be that a running style change may just happen randomly due to an incident at the start. For example nobody predicted Dunkirk would make the lead in the Belmont but it happened. It didn’t affect the outcome of the race but in some races things like that can change the outcome of any given race.

We can’t know that a Horse is going to break poorly.

We can’t know that a Horse is going to bleed through it’s Lasix.

There are many more things that we can’t know and I’ll leave it up to everyone here to fill in the blanks.

I know the drug issue will come up and probably poison the thread so I’m going to post another thread dealing with my opinion of the drug issue. It is up now!

[Cangamble]

We don't know if a horse was blocked before a race, or the horse's record of being blocked previously and how well the horse performed afterward. The owner and trainer of the horse may know, but the general public has no clue.
The same goes with changing the pre race, or even how the horse was trained going into the race as opposed to other races.

Note: the above isn't really a drug issue though it could be.

[matthewsiv]

If the horse or his connnections are really trying.

This may happen a lot more in the GB than the USA.

[Cangamble]

Minor adjustments made by the trainer when it comes to equipment. Also, the trainers instructions. We can guess at them, but we don't know for sure.

[andymays]

Maybe that a Horse had surgery after his last race to improve breathing! Sometimes it is reported and sometimes not.

[DanG]

What are some of the things we can’t know when we are handicapping a race?

If a winning ticket at Penn National is actually valid.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by DanG

If a winning ticket at Penn National is actually valid.

Isn't that the truth? Good one!

[Fingal]

After you've made your selection, how much the odds are going to change during the race.

[MzDucat]

If he's in for race filler doing an accomodation for the racing secretary so the connections can ship their faster horse to another track on Saturday night without being punished, or if he's actually in to give us his best horsie effort.

It is hard to know a trainers whole string and which horses are the priority.
Not easy even if you're two barns down.

[fmolf]

very hard to know just how healthy a horse really is.... whether he's off his feed... not acting like himself in the barn..this is especially true at the smaller tracks i have found because horses needto run to more often to pay the feed bills running for smaller purses

[andymays]

Originally Posted by fmolf

very hard to know just how healthy a horse really is.... whether he's off his feed... not acting like himself in the barn..this is especially true at the smaller tracks i have found because horses needto run to more often to pay the feed bills running for smaller purses

One of the reasons I like pre race interviews on TVG or HRTV is that the good ones like Christina Olivares or Millie Ball generally ask good questions. Because of the good interviews we do learn things that we may not know without the interview. For example one of them may ask about a gap in works and the reason for the gap!

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by andymays

One of the reasons I like pre race interviews on TVG or HRTV is that the good ones like Christina Olivares or Millie Ball generally ask good questions. Because of the good interviews we do learn things that we may not know without the interview. For example one of them may ask about a gap in works and the reason for the gap!

i agree totally but i think it really depends on which trainer they are interviewing some are tight lipped others more forthright.Usuall they get good honest answers because of their connections to the industry....olivares thru her father and ball was a exercise rider who married a trainer....tim yakteen...hows he doing do not follow cal. any longer

[markgoldie]

As one might imagine, the things that you don't or can't know regarding the eventual outcome of a race far outweigh the known elements.

Horses are subject to many ailments which affect athletes, but these problems are far more difficult to discern than with a human athlete, let's say. Why? Because of the old adage that horses can't talk. Human athletes have a considerable ability to self-regulate since they may know what's bothering them and have the power to take steps to remedy the problem. If a human athlete is tired, he knows to back off a bit. If he feels a muscle strain in some part of his body, he will rest and treat the problem. None of this is possible with horses and when we consider that often human athletes will think they are fit for a particular event, after coming up short they will say things like. "Well, I must have overtrained because I had no zip." So if the human, able to self-regulate and think about his condition can be fooled, imagine how this translates to horses.

Restricting play to successful trainers is helpful in eliminating many blatant problems with a horse's health and/or form, but even successful trainers can be fooled or may have a different agenda in racing a particular animal in a given spot without supreme confidence in the horse's fitness.

In addition to all the many viruses and bacterial infections that a horse may contract, horses are prone to parasitic attacks which do not affect humans. In fact, a parasite that causes the debilitating condition known as EPM is present in nearly all horses in many areas of the country. This means that the horse's immune system is constantly at work, battling these protozoa and even a slight compromise in that system can cause significant physical problems. Also, stomach parasites are very active in horses and can cause a sapping of strength and energy.

Then there is the unknowable way in which the race will unfold. There's stumbling, rearing, dwelling, bumping, jostling, checking, being taken up, herding, cutting off, being forced wide (and we haven't even reached the quarter pole yet! LOL). Pace projections go out the window when a key player is compromised by a bad start, interference, or infirmity, etc.

Jockey error: Even the recently-sainted Calvin Borel is being widely criticized for his badly-timed move in the Belmont. If a move that's made a few seconds too soon can destroy the chances of one of the best horses in the country, imagine what it can do to the average horse. And if such an error can be made by Borel, imagine the mistakes that can be made by average jockies!

And now for the good news. Contrarian players like myself and many others look for negative form or other factors which may hurt the chances of race favorites. The object: play against them! And as I have said many times, when a 7-5 shot fails to hit the board and we contrarians are congratulating ourselves for cashing a hefty trifecta, the reason probably had more to do with one of these "unknowable" factors than any flaw we found in the form.

Mark

[Turfday]

1) How a horse is feeling on race day. Is he constipated (would you like to be asked to run fast if you are?). Does he have any nagging little ailments going into the race that might be exacerbated pre-race or when breaking from the gate?

2) What instructions does the trainer give the jockey if any? What if there are two or three other speed horses in the race and the horse in question is a front runner?

EXAMPLE: Strawberry Tart, winner of Friday's (5th) race at Hollywood Park, the Manhattan Beach stakes on TURF. Looked like a one-dimensional front speed, need-the-lead type going into the race and speed has been holding very well in Hollypark turf sprints. Obviously, trainer Jeff Bonde felt otherwise and tried different tactics confounding the pace and everyone handicapping the race. He must have told jockey Martin Garcia to take her back and she made a hellacious, eye-popping run with a last quarter in about :23.1 or :23.2 to won going away...like a freak.

3) Trainer intent. Is the trainer serious about today, or is he using this race as a prep for another race coming up?

4) A horse that doesn't like to run inside of other horses. Here's what confounds the trip players and the Sheet numbers. What if the trainer tells the jockey that his horse doesn't like to be inside of other horses (and saving ground), but will fire big and rally when getting to the outside (and perhaps lose ground)? How do we know the horse's preference and that the horse runs better in the clear on the outside? What if that horse is drawn on the rail?

[Bettowin]

Make a list of everything we DO know about a race. After we do that, everything else is what we don't know

How could a list about what we don't know ever end?