Can you quickly describe how you handicap?

[Dave Schwartz]

Can you quickly describe how you handicap?

Mine are:

1. Get a feel for who the favs are should be.

2. Decide who the contenders will be using a handful of key factors.

3. Assign probabilities to those contenders.

4. Assign Value Grades to each contender.

5. Look for one or more Leverage Points.

6. Bet the race aiming to exploit those Leverage Points.

[jay68802]

Badly.

[MJC922]

In the morning (weekends typically because I still work full time Mon-Fri) I usually choose just one track to focus on then scan for a morning line favorite i.e. likely favorite that I may be negative about for a wide variety of reasons. Too many reasons to list, usually it's a combination of race flow and form cycle, replay observations with bunches of other more obscure factors peppered in. Then I try to build doubles around that negative opinion, spreading here in the bad favorite race and be sure to include any longer prices that strike my fancy but leave the favored horse completely off all of my tickets. Then for race two of building that DD out goes to whatever race looks better to me either fore or aft which gives me some degree of flexibilty assuming rolling DDs. I rarely bet at tracks without rolling DDs. Preference usually goes to shallower contention in that secondary DD race because I've already spread in the 'bad favorite' race so I have intent to zero in on one or maybe two horses here, sometimes three but only if I can toss both favorite and co-favorite, consider field size etc. If during the course of my analysis of this DD I form some good opinion about a specific horse and maybe after all of the work I actually don't like the DD I'm more than willing here to flat bet a specific horse to win instead, so in that case nevermind the DD, I will have an eye on DD probables to project win odds and flat bet the horse assuming the projected odds are acceptable to me. It comes down to picking my spots. Without playing full time I obviously have a lot of gaps in my knowledge base of horse's previous races and how those races handicapped, setup and ultimately developed so I need to concentrate on picking my spots and trying to do a fairly comprehensive job of handicapping several races. I'm only willing to spend maybe 2-3 hours per day handicapping a few races, including monitoring the odds. I don't sit through whole cards anymore. Maybe when I retire I'll get back to that, I just don't have time to spend all day on horses anymore.

[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Badly.

[SBD400]

*Sure, I follow NYRA circuit very closely.
*On Mondays I grade just about every horse and take trip notes of every race of previous week and put it in my database.
* When entries come out, I assess every race at a high level, certain kinds of races I am better at than others and decide to play or not play race accordingly. For example, my back of the napkin ROI calculations show my ROI on maiden races is sky high.
*When handicapping a race, I look to see if I have high rated horses in the race.
* If I do I see how they fit in current condition and the dynamics of the race based on my knowledge of the dynamics of the circuit.
* I assess favorite and determine whether they are beatable or not.
* I asses the odds on horse(s) I like if there is value and I like the way they stack up in field, I decide on type of bet and how much. I only play exactas and WPS.

[Saratoga]

Basically everyone here is similar...

Get top contenders ....

Evaluate favorite....pace form class

I also look at trainer , early energy bias....

I bet tracks like Parx.....Why?.....because horses form doesn't hold up vs better class tracks. A last out big win will mostly always be a favorite next out ....
he will then to bounce most of the time..

[Inner Dirt]

I pace handicap, and pray I can find a lone F at a good price. I hate it when a full field looks like it sets up for a closer. I consider how the track is playing and then toss out horses accordingly. My favorite bet is the pick 3.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thank you for the answers.

Keep them coming.

[Inner Dirt]

A guy saw a Racing Form in my tool box at work and said he played the horses also, he asked me if he drove down to Agua Caliente if I would split the gas. That was like a 200 mile round trip. Since he said he did not drink much, I figure, awesome "Designated driver". Here is his handicapping method. Take the morning line favorite and the third choice and box them for $2 exacta. If he got $100 ahead kick it to $5 box. This strategy he had for horses, dogs, and even Jai Alai. I swear true story.

[thaskalos]

1. I quickly survey the field to see if there are any obvious horses who can be eliminated at first glance. Since I play the vertical exotics, I can't afford to discard any but the most obvious throw-outs in the race at the very start of the handicapping process.

2. I have trained myself to start viewing the past-performances from the far right, so I can immediately notice any obvious trouble that the horse might have experienced, especially at the start...which might necessitate that I ignore that particular race in my evaluation of the horse's ability.

3. I identify any changes which might cause the horse's performance today to differ from what this horse has done in its recent races (claims, class maneuvers, jockey changes, equipment changes, etc.)

4. Now I assign "power ratings" to the horses' last 3 representative races, using a proprietary method that I have developed which uses only the individual fractional pace ratings of the particular horse.

5. I then start with the highest rated horse, and I look to see if I can find any "negative" indications which might eliminate an otherwise sharp-looking horse. I must immodestly declare that I have discovered a few of these "form negatives" which have never been written about in the handicapping books.

6. Now I compare my calculations to the odds on the tote board to see if any noteworthy discrepancies exist. My prime bets aren't the 4-1 horses whom I consider to be 3-1 worthy...since I don't have this much confidence in my odds-making skills. I look for bigger discrepancies, which are usually the result of the "form negatives" that I spot in the PPs of the sharp-looking horses.


There was a time long ago when I obsessed over the probable pace of the race, and I spent considerable time trying to determine if the pace of the race would be hotly contested or not...and then I did my handicapping accordingly. That was in my ignorant days...when I used to think that the horses have easily-identifiable running styles. But then a $2,500 claiming race at Portland Meadows came up, where I quickly eliminated a "need-the-lead" frontrunner who seemed incapable of securing the lead in that particular race which was loaded with early speed. And, to my considerable surprise, the jockey took this horse all the way back to second-last...and then mounted a furious stretch drive to win by open lengths. So...I theorized that, if a bum jockey can do that with a $2,500 claimer at Portland Meadows...then this running style reversal could be done anywhere, by anybody.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

A guy saw a Racing Form in my tool box at work and said he played the horses also, he asked me if he drove down to Agua Caliente if I would split the gas. That was like a 200 mile round trip. Since he said he did not drink much, I figure, awesome "Designated driver". Here is his handicapping method. Take the morning line favorite and the third choice and box them for $2 exacta. If he got $100 ahead kick it to $5 box. This strategy he had for horses, dogs, and even Jai Alai. I swear true story.

Dave didn't ask about your friend...he wants to know from you...

[lamboguy]

i basically threw the towel in. Instead of betting on these things, i am attempting to race them.
because of HISA, i think i have a better chance to win now than the last 20 years. the purses are great, and i have trainers that don't clean me out of day rates and vet bills.

[sjk]

Black box program. Computer does it all.

[Johnny V]

I am all over the place with my handicapping depending on the time of year, BB season, etc. At present, I look over all the races and just throw out all synthetic, some turf and some maiden races. Then I just look at some basic pace numbers and I will bet the two races with the highest ratings with the highest morning lines. Pretty simple and not time consuming. I can do two to three tracks depending when in the mood.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Dave didn't ask about your friend...he wants to know from you...

I mentioned mine.