Playing with a new morning line method.

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Playing around with a new method using 96 factors to establish a morning line.
Line is the factors, ML is the monring line and OLR is odds last race.
Looking for value. The line is artificially high to reflect the true chances based on method (I am frugal) rather than line and looking for value. Let's see how it goes.

Custom Method: ML - morning line
BELMONT PARK 07-14-2017 RACE 3 OF 10
Weighting Factors 1 1 1
PGM Name *LINE ML OLR SCORE
2 GRAND JETE 47.05 *0.80 2.20 5-1
1 WELCOMING *60.40 6.00 6.90 6-1
4 BAR OF GOLD 55.99 3.50 10.00 6-1
5 MO KNOWS 47.78 10.00 3.60 7-1
6 ALL IN FUN 41.92 5.00 14.80 8-1
1AA DREAM PROSPECT 39.55 6.00 *1.80 6-1

MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING morning line):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
2 GRAND JETE 0.8 ROSARIO J. BROWN C. C.
1 WELCOMING 6.0 ARROYO A. S. CLEMENT C.
4 BAR OF GOLD 3.5 ORTIZ JR. I. KIMMEL J. C.
1AADREAM PROSPECT 6.0 VELAZQUEZ J. R. CLEMENT C.
5 MO KNOWS 10.0 FRANCO M. WARD W. A.
6 ALL IN FUN 5.0 CASTELLANO J. MCGAUGHEY III C. R

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Custom Method: ML - morning line
MONMOUTH PARK 07-14-2017 RACE 5 OF 8
Weighting Factors 1 1 -1
PGM Name *LINE ML OLR SCORE
1 FURIOSA SCR SCR SCR ????
2 MISS BOB *56.31 *3.00 9.80 2-1
3 COLD HEARTED PEA 54.23 8.00 *1.50 3-1
4 MY DINAH LEE SCR SCR SCR ????
5 NO INTEREST 50.53 3.50 10.20 3-1
6 BELLA VINCENZA SCR SCR SCR ????
7 ROYAL CASHMERE 38.74 20.00 10.40 6-1
8 POP ROCKS LADY SCR SCR SCR ????

MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING morning line):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
2 MISS BOB 3.0 CASTRO E. NAVARRO J.
5 NO INTEREST 3.5 BRAVO J. STIDHAM M.
3 COLD HEARTED PEARL 8.0 JIMENEZ A. LINDER JR. L. C.
7 ROYAL CASHMERE 20.0 MENDEZ K. THOMPSON G. R.

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Custom Method: ML - morning line
ELLIS PARK 07-14-2017 RACE 3 OF 8 -
Weighting Factors 1 1 1
PGM Name *LINE ML OLR SCORE
1 TOTAL IMMERSION *65.05 5.00 *10.70 5-1
2 PLAYING A JOKE 47.12 5.00 24.90 7-1
3 BOLD FORCE 40.26 10.00 31.70 10-1
4 HIGH DIVER 55.55 *1.80 32.10 7-1
5 KOWBOY KODY 56.93 6.00 12.70 6-1
6 MANNY BLUE BOY 41.53 12.00 32.40 11-1
7 SLICK MICK 46.71 15.00 14.80 8-1
8 ELLIO 46.05 4.50 18.60 6-1

MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING morning line):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
1 TOTAL IMMERSION 5.0 GAZADER R. HANCOCK J. A.
5 KOWBOY KODY 6.0 QUINONEZ A. BARKLEY J.
8 ELLIO 4.5 OSORIO D. A. KAELIN F.
4 HIGH DIVER 1.8 BOREL C. H. REDNOUR JR. J.
2 PLAYING A JOKE 5.0 GRAHAM J. MOQUETT R.
7 SLICK MICK 15.0 ALMANZA R. CAMPBELL D. M.
3 BOLD FORCE 10.0 QUAST C. AUSTIN S. O.
6 MANNY BLUE BOY 12.0 MIRANDA R. HOUSE G. F.

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Custom Method: ML - morning line
BELMONT PARK 07-14-2017 RACE 4 OF 10
Weighting Factors 1 1 0
PGM Name *LINE ML OLR SCORE
1 SALTINE WARRIOR 47.54 5.00 14.60 6-1
2 BUCKWELLSPENT 39.35 20.00 16.50 13-1
3 MANIPULATED 59.06 *2.50 *0.60 5-1
4 GLOBAL POSITIONI 52.15 8.00 2.20 7-1
5 SOL THE FREUD 46.58 15.00 12.40 9-1
6 PEGASUS RED 48.66 12.00 16.70 8-1
7 MIGHTY ZEALOUS 45.70 4.00 2.95 6-1
8 LOVE THAT JAZZ *59.98 3.00 4.50 5-1

MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING morning line):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
3 MANIPULATED 2.5 ORTIZ JR. I. RODRIGUEZ R. R.
8 LOVE THAT JAZZ 3.0 ORTIZ J. L. BAKER C.
7 MIGHTY ZEALOUS 4.0 DAVIS D. LALMAN D. S.
1 SALTINE WARRIOR 5.0 SAEZ L. ENGLEHART J. C.
4 GLOBAL POSITIONING 8.0 FRANCO M. BROWN B. R.
6 PEGASUS RED 12.0 LEZCANO J. LEVINE B. N.
5 SOL THE FREUD 15.0 LEZCANO A. LEGALL R. E.
2 BUCKWELLSPENT 20.0 FRAGOSO P. PARKER J. G.

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Custom Method: ML - morning line
WOODBINE 07-14-2017 RACE 1 OF 8 -
Weighting Factors 1 0
PGM Name *LINE ML SCORE
6 PURE PURITY *59.33 6.00 6-1
5 BELLA FABIANA 57.55 10.00 6-1
1 PRINCESS ROYAL 55.43 3.00 6-1
2 LITTLE CHRISTMAS 51.52 *2.00 7-1
3 LUCKBE TANYA 44.34 3.50 8-1
7 MAGIC SKYS 42.17 12.00 8-1
4 LOVIN SPOON PHIL 37.99 8.00 10-1
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING morning line):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
6 PURE PURITY 6.0 GARCIA A. BIAMONTE R. J.
5 BELLA FABIANA 10.0 RAINFORD M. FAIRLIE S. H.
1 PRINCESS ROYAL 3.0 CONTRERAS L. ROSE R. J.
2 LITTLE CHRISTMAS 2.0 DASILVA E. R. ATTARD K.
3 LUCKBE TANYA 3.5 HUSBANDS P. CASSE M. E.
7 MAGIC SKYS 12.0 CAMPBELL J. M. BANACH D. D.
4 LOVIN SPOON PHIL 8.0 BOULANGER G. TILLER R. P.

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Try this again with a better tweaking of factors with a historical tune. The Line is my line, the ML is the square root of the morning line. The score is my final; real two dollar odds. If the top horse is cold bet the 2nd and 3rd


WOODBINE 07-16-2017 RACE 2 OF 10 - TRACK RATING: 89 PT-01:36PM
8.5f TURF 3&UP Nw OTHER THAN MDN CLMG/RESTRICTED ALW/ Nw 2 3YO 119 LBS;ODR 123 LBS NON-WS
ALLOWANCE PURSE: $61000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 50
Weighting Factors 1 1
PGM Name *LINE ML SCORE
1 DEEP FREEZE 55.61 3.46 8-1
2 LAPOCHKA 43.37 2.45 7-1
3 FOREST BROTHER *62.36 4.47 9-1
4 SYNTHESIZE 39.22 *1.41 6-1
5 NIGHT WATCHMAN 44.94 3.16 8-1
6 COURT SAVVY 47.16 1.87 6-1
7 MARTINI KID 49.43 3.16 8-1
8 AULT 57.92 1.73 5-1

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
8 AULT 3.0 DASILVA E. R. PARENTE P.
6 COURT SAVVY 3.5 GARCIA A. BIAMONTE R. J.
4 SYNTHESIZE 2.0 BOULANGER G. CASSE M. E.
2 LAPOCHKA 6.0 HUSBANDS P. SMITH J. J.
1 DEEP FREEZE 12.0 CAMPBELL J. M. BANACH D. D.
7 MARTINI KID 10.0 MORAN D. PAULO M. P. D.
5 NIGHT WATCHMAN 10.0 LERMYTE J. MINSHALL B. J.
3 FOREST BROTHER 20.0 CALLAGHAN S. REGAN T.

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Sorry for the late post for the 2nd. I like the squaring the morning line. Almost dead on with paying almost 5-1. Showed the as overlay and bad bet for me. What I've notice with the black box method and factors is that finding the right filters to apply to each type of race is an art form.
Ran
Also need to beware of those horses ready to drop off form after condition movement. Winners last race need to be examined closely especially maidens.
The 3rd at WOD(I am using WOD mainly for better historical data) is 6.5 fur, which is my programs Achilles heel mainly due to pace. I have tweaked my pace with extensive filter settings tests and feel these are best. The 3rd race tuned for top pick wins.
Custom Method: ML - morning line
WOODBINE 07-16-2017 RACE 3 OF 10
Weighting Factors 8 1
PGM Name *LINE ML SCORE
1 YORK RANGER 51.52 *1.41 6-1
2 YOU KNOW JACK 46.74 3.46 8-1
3 BETTIN ACES 40.33 4.47 9-1
4 BEAR SKINNED *69.26 1.58 5-1
5 VIRGA 53.66 2.45 6-1
6 NORRIS LAKE 42.11 3.46 9-1
7 TITANICO 51.70 1.87 7-1
8 LOOKINGFORANEWHO 43.38 3.16 8-1
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
4 BEAR SKINNED 2.5 CAMPBELL J. M. DREXLER M.
5 VIRGA 6.0 BAHEN S. R. MCDONALD M. K.
1 YORK RANGER 2.0 DASILVA E. R. TILLER R. P.
7 TITANICO 3.5 WILSON E. J. DESRUISSEAUX D. A.
2 YOU KNOW JACK 12.0 GARCIA A. KATRYAN A. R.
8 LOOKINGFORANEWHOME 10.0 MORAN D. BUTTIGIEG P. M.
6 NORRIS LAKE 12.0 HUSBANDS P. SADLER R. H.
3 BETTIN ACES 20.0 RYAN S. MCCLACHRIE D.
Method Success - PICK 1 WINS Result 30.36 PCT - 0 RACES 07-16-2017

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2nd Pick wins and pays well over 6-1.
Breaking for 4th race back for the 5th.

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The 5th is much the same as the 3rd. CClaimers lifetime conditions. I am trying to eliminate what is pushed to the top of ladder mainly that these types of races can lend themselves to a horse being over the top in form. In this case the public is speaking loudly and the earns a soaring 76 on my line. Start a P-3 might be in order. Not tuned ahead after working on filtering columns.
But for race 5 I look at the top pick and longshots from the bottom who might see today as chance for 2nd or 3rd while the mid priced horse wrap up for next race.
WOODBINE 07-16-2017 RACE 5 OF 10 -
Weighting Factors 1 1
PGM Name *LINE ML SCORE
1 BEAUTY PHIL 40.15 4.47 13-1
2 LUCKY EMERALD 46.69 3.46 10-1
3 CRY HAVOC 42.97 4.47 13-1
4 DANCE ON STAGE 58.57 2.00 7-1
5 GET SAUCY 50.82 3.16 9-1
6 BREWS TOONIE TOS 43.93 2.83 9-1
8 MY ROSEBUD 48.73 2.45 8-1
9 SWEET RHAPSODY *76.78 *1.18 5-1
10 MISS BAO TO U 56.72 3.16 8-1
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING morning line):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
9 SWEET RHAPSODY 1.4 DASILVA E. R. MCKNIGHT N.
4 DANCE ON STAGE 4.0 HUSBANDS P. SADLER R. H.
8 MY ROSEBUD 6.0 MOSQUEIRA I. E. THARRENOS W.
10 MISS BAO TO U 10.0 MORENO O. PAULO M. P. D.
5 GET SAUCY 10.0 RAINFORD M. FAIRLIE S. H.
6 BREWS TOONIE TOSS 8.0 HUSBANDS S. P. BURRY L.
2 LUCKY EMERALD 12.0 ALDERSON J. I. THARRENOS W.
3 CRY HAVOC 20.0 CALLAGHAN S. WILCOX W.
1 BEAUTY PHIL 20.0 BRIDGMOHAN J. V. ROBINSON L.
7 LAKE MARION 20.0 DEFREITAS C. LEARN S.
Method Success -
The script that determines my odds is still very high. Cant change it.

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Race 5 was uneventful. Fav cruises. I have a hard time finding horses that my line will push above 65 that are not chalk and run like it. 55 or below and 9-5 is vulnerable.
Win and 2nd, 3rd and 4th pick out of the money, which underneath.
Ran :
Tuning for 6th now will post at 7mtp

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WOODBINE 07-16-2017 RACE 6 OF 10
Weighting Factors 1 4
PGM Name *LINE ML SCORE
1 MICK THE CONQUER*67.36 *1.41 5-1
3 CROSS BORDER 61.15 1.73 6-1
8 BILOXI BAY 64.96 2.00 6-1
9 HES A BREEZE 43.10 2.45 7-1
7 THE DOCTOR 56.54 2.83 7-1
4 LEONARDS BAY 40.99 3.87 10-1
2 CANMORE 44.89 4.47 12-1
5 FULLTHROTTLE KID 43.60 4.47 13-1
6 LILLZ NOT CRYING 21.72 4.47 15-1
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
1 MICK THE CONQUEROR 2.0 MORAN D. DOYLE M. J.
3 CROSS BORDER 3.0 BOULANGER G. TILLER R. P.
8 BILOXI BAY 4.0 HUSBANDS P. CASSE M. E.
9 HES A BREEZE 6.0 HUSBANDS S. P. MCPHERSON A. F.
7 THE DOCTOR 8.0 ALDERSON J. I. COLBOURNE G. C.
4 LEONARDS BAY 15.0 CAMPBELL J. M. BELL D. R.
2 CANMORE 20.0 SINGH S. PAULO M. P. D.
5 FULLTHROTTLE KID 20.0 CRAWFORD J. BELLISSIMO V.
6 LILLZ NOT CRYING 20.0 RAMSAMMY E. SINGH R.
Method Success - PICK 1 WINS Result 35.48 PCT - 0 RACES 07-16-20

I have become very wary of my methods top pick for maiden claimers. Usually I try and get rid of them. Too much data for a maiden is a bad thing as they have proven over and over their inability to want to lead at the end.

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Like I said, was overbet.
I just got a call from buddy and the smallmouth are turned on in the Delaware River. Last weekend of fishing before the Spa opens next weekend. Then things get real. Thanks for reading and any questions, PM me.

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One thing that I have been doing is tuning my methods to historical data based on condition book timing. As a former Asst trainer, the class of conditions changes as the book goes forward. A factor that might be very important at the beginning of the meet and change very much towards the end. When you look at quality maidens, we always tried to have our best MSW ready early to be able to move them through the condition if good enough. Our lesser maidens many times would prep in MSW only to be dropped next out and would get fit during the first books.
Any one else tried limiting your historical data?

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Projected final pay odds for Race 7 @MNR. No live tote feed.

MOUNTAINEER 07-16-2017 RACE 7 OF 9 -
Weighting Factors 1 1
PGM Name *LINE ML SCORE
5 MORGANS RAIDER *61.99 1.73 5-1

1 IN CONDITION 53.39 *1.26 5-1
7 EL DISCRETO 53.18 2.83 7-1
2 THE PREZ 46.82 5.48 11-1
6 RISENER 46.57 1.87 6-1
8 GRAND LORD 43.42 2.45 7-1
3 STORMY SANDY 37.81 3.46 9-1
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
5 MORGANS RAIDER 3.0 QUINONES L. M. MORENO L.
1 IN CONDITION 1.6 HO W. CLOUSTON E.
6 RISENER 3.5 BARBARAN E. BERNARDINI J. P.
7 EL DISCRETO 8.0 CRUZ A. M. MACEROLA A.
8 GRAND LORD 6.0 FADLOVICH M. HEBERT J.

3 STORMY SANDY 12.0 SERRANO K. SIPP B. K.
2 THE PREZ 30.0 RIVERA L. R. SANCHEZ N.

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Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Projected final pay odds for Race 7 @MNR. No live tote feed.

MOUNTAINEER 07-16-2017 RACE 7 OF 9 -
Weighting Factors 1 1
PGM Name *LINE ML SCORE
5 MORGANS RAIDER *61.99 1.73 5-1

1 IN CONDITION 53.39 *1.26 5-1
7 EL DISCRETO 53.18 2.83 7-1
2 THE PREZ 46.82 5.48 11-1
6 RISENER 46.57 1.87 6-1
8 GRAND LORD 43.42 2.45 7-1
3 STORMY SANDY 37.81 3.46 9-1
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
5 MORGANS RAIDER 3.0 QUINONES L. M. MORENO L.
1 IN CONDITION 1.6 HO W. CLOUSTON E.
6 RISENER 3.5 BARBARAN E. BERNARDINI J. P.
7 EL DISCRETO 8.0 CRUZ A. M. MACEROLA A.
8 GRAND LORD 6.0 FADLOVICH M. HEBERT J.

3 STORMY SANDY 12.0 SERRANO K. SIPP B. K.
2 THE PREZ 30.0 RIVERA L. R. SANCHEZ N.

So my Line went . ML while inflated for risk on cheaper types is - drifted up with decent connections and was moving below ML. Combined all things equal is . The in the super was the kicker. Knowing the was due to decline as an over the top chalker and thewere equal on the my line, a play like this may be in order after the fact.
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