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08-19-2017, 12:00 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,733
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AROGATE dilemma
throwout the the last race and the phony race he ran in Dubai and he compares to the greats like DR. FAGER, SPECTACULAR BID and SEATTLE SLEW.
will he come back today and show up with another great race. i say at even money i will pay to find out.
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08-19-2017, 12:26 PM
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#2
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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I don't like this race.
I don't like how Arrogate ran as if he was 'all used up' last time.
If Lance Armstrong goes from burying competition to suddenly not even making it up a hill, I'm worried. Not only about Lance's 'form', but now I have to make dumb guesses about the viscosity of his blood, and all kinds of things that I don't know anything about.
I don't like that Collected (another Baffert horse who is running at a 'peak' level) is in the race. Collected is close enough (if both fire) that a good Collected trip can beat a troubled Arrogate trip.
I hope that Arrogate returns to form and runs huge.
I hope that you win, if you play.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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08-19-2017, 12:44 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
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I keep thinking that the main goal is the BC Classic, the last race he was not ready, should be set to fire a good one here. But its not important race because of his main goal. But if you want 2-1 on the exacta, take the Baffert entries and swing away.
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08-19-2017, 01:21 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
I keep thinking that the main goal is the BC Classic, the last race he was not ready, should be set to fire a good one here. But its not important race because of his main goal. But if you want 2-1 on the exacta, take the Baffert entries and swing away.
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What does not ready mean? If you owned a horse like Arrogate would you send him out to race at 70% or some % of ready where he fails to contend at any call? To me a horse that isn't ready would contend and then lose because they were lacking stamina in the stretch. I have yet to hear of a logical excuse for such a bad race and his subsequent workouts have not exactly made everybody believe that he will be "ready" today.
As a race fan, I would love to see the old Arrogate show up and put on an exhibition. As a bettor I would have no qualms betting against him
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08-19-2017, 01:26 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I think if your a real horse player you are taking a stand one way or another. Either he is the overlay of the century, and I can see 7/5 or so with all the bad workout stuff.....or a great chance to bet against a horse coming off an 85 beyer in his last race. I will be playing against the horse, but will be very happy to see the old Arrogate.
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08-19-2017, 01:33 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
What does not ready mean? If you owned a horse like Arrogate would you send him out to race at 70% or some % of ready where he fails to contend at any call? To me a horse that isn't ready would contend and then lose because they were lacking stamina in the stretch. I have yet to hear of a logical excuse for such a bad race and his subsequent workouts have not exactly made everybody believe that he will be "ready" today.
As a race fan, I would love to see the old Arrogate show up and put on an exhibition. As a bettor I would have no qualms betting against him
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2 slow works leading up to the race, now look at his works. 2 bullets ( 1 was 6f in 1.11) that was impressive, followed by a longer work of 7f, then a typical Baffert fast 4f drill. He did not have the fast drill before his last race, Baffert breaking a pattern, that alone sent up the warning flag.
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08-19-2017, 01:44 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
2 slow works leading up to the race, now look at his works. 2 bullets ( 1 was 6f in 1.11) that was impressive, followed by a longer work of 7f, then a typical Baffert fast 4f drill. He did not have the fast drill before his last race, Baffert breaking a pattern, that alone sent up the warning flag.
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and now I hear training up to the BC if he runs well....I dont know on this Del Mar surface which is deep and demanding that you would use that plan. I think its going to be something I use as a play against, the 2 month + breaks into BC races due to this track.
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08-19-2017, 03:16 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
2 slow works leading up to the race, now look at his works. 2 bullets ( 1 was 6f in 1.11) that was impressive, followed by a longer work of 7f, then a typical Baffert fast 4f drill. He did not have the fast drill before his last race, Baffert breaking a pattern, that alone sent up the warning flag.
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According to people that saw it, the last work wasn't great, and he didn't want to change leads. Maybe he just doesn't like the surface, but he sure doesn't seem like the monster we saw this year at GP or in Dubai.
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08-19-2017, 03:21 PM
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#9
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,765
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I'd be worried that this horse has figured out he doesn't have to run. It might be a mental problem.
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08-19-2017, 03:24 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
I'd be worried that this horse has figured out he doesn't have to run. It might be a mental problem.
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Good point. He just might not want to do this anymore.
Would I be shocked if he won today? No. I would be surprised though if we saw a monster 119 Beyer-type effort from him. I think he's a good bet against if he goes off < even money.
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08-19-2017, 04:50 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Tom Amoss just said he did not like Arrogates last work at all. When asked he said he would not bet him off of it.
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08-19-2017, 05:29 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
Tom Amoss just said he did not like Arrogates last work at all. When asked he said he would not bet him off of it.
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Yea, he kinda shat all over him.
I just dont see Baffert running a horse that isnt good, especially this horse.
mixed feelings but as a better I need to play against.
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08-19-2017, 05:37 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
Tom Amoss just said he did not like Arrogates last work at all. When asked he said he would not bet him off of it.
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the only thing ARROGATE did wrong was not change leads in the work. up until the last 2 races he has never done a thing wrong in his races.
its a tough call to make, to bet ARROGATE i need even money or better. otherwise i will watch.
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08-19-2017, 08:22 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
2 slow works leading up to the race, now look at his works. 2 bullets ( 1 was 6f in 1.11) that was impressive, followed by a longer work of 7f, then a typical Baffert fast 4f drill. He did not have the fast drill before his last race, Baffert breaking a pattern, that alone sent up the warning flag.
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We are talking about the "best horse in the world" not an allowance horse. Baffert breaking pattern shouldn't equal an out-of-the-money performance. While the times of the workouts might be impressive I have heard that it wasn't done with the kind of ease shown by him in the past. Like I said, I hope he runs a huge race. I have never lost any sleep passing on an even money horse regardless of how easy they may win.
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08-19-2017, 08:30 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,477
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45 minute lag time between races. And people complain about baseball.
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