Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY
Turf Paradise
1 mile dirt
130 races, E & Ep Win at 65%
6 Furlongs dirt
183 races, E & Ep Win at 76%
5.5 Furlongs dirt
127 races, E & Ep Win at 73%
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Money, those are some excellent stats.
Permit me to offer some support of your findings.
In this graphic I show the last 200 races at TUP, 6f, fast, 5+ horses.
#1 - This shows the winners' position at each call. (a neck is close enough to be tied for the next position.)
#2 - This shows the average postion and lengths behind of the winners at each call. Really this only has value as a long-term metric to show if there are trend changes.
#3, #4, #5 is really the important stuff. This shows where the winners
made their move for the 1st time. That is, when did the horse first run within 1 length of the leader.
This is important because, despite the fact that 68% of the winners were within 1 length at the 2nd call, only 14% were not on the lead at the 1st call!
In other words, it is actually the 1st call that matters!
Just to prove that this is not only a "current profile," here's a shot of the last 2,000 races at TUP.
Almost exactly the same.
Best Regards,
Dave Schwartz
PS: If you guys like stats like this, let me know and I will come up with more.