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Old 01-25-2022, 03:48 PM   #1
shoelessjoe
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Class

I wanted to see if anyone has a suggestion on a book that deals with class, I would prefer something recent

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Old 01-26-2022, 03:43 PM   #2
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The Handicapper's Condition Book - An Advanced Treatment of Thoroughbred Class by James Quinn 2000. Also, Brad Free has a decent chapter on basic class in his 2004 book Handicapping 101.
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Old 01-26-2022, 04:43 PM   #3
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I wanted to see if anyone has a suggestion on a book that deals with class, I would prefer something recent

Thanks
Why not start here on this Class thread. There are 35 pages on class by a lot of smart handicappers. Distill what you like and put something together that makes sense.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ighlight=class

This is more recent than most of the books that are in publication.
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Old 01-26-2022, 06:01 PM   #4
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I recently entertained this question and found there are many ways to measure class. For instance, Quirin good races in the last 10 races that are at or above today's par might be one. Average purse might be one. No tag or higher tag might be one. There are many possibilities.
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Old 01-27-2022, 10:56 AM   #5
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Quinn wrote a book called "Class of the Field" that's pretty good, but it uses speed figures as part of the process. Not that I think that's a problem, but if you are determined to understand how to "class handicap" and find potential overlays in an era when everyone else uses speed/pace figures it may not be exactly what you are looking for.

Personally, I don't think anyone has written the definitive high level book on class handicapping. I think there are pieces of the puzzle in different books, but no one has put it all together, including not just the strengths, but potential weaknesses.

I once had a thought of trying it myself, but at this point I'm way too lazy for an undertaking like that.
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Old 01-27-2022, 11:20 AM   #6
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Why not start here on this Class thread. There are 35 pages on class by a lot of smart handicappers. Distill what you like and put something together that makes sense.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ighlight=class

This is more recent than most of the books that are in publication.
That's a very good thread.

It's too long for me to read through in it's entirety now, but I did skim all the things I personally said and some of the responses to me etc.. I was pretty amazed at how little I've changed my views over that long a period because I'm constantly thinking about these things, have a learned a lot studying data, and thought I had changed more. I guess some of the details changed, but the basics are the same.
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Old 01-27-2022, 12:04 PM   #7
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Thanks for the suggestions
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Old 01-27-2022, 01:56 PM   #8
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Hi Jeff,

My 2 cents, I would read Quinn's Handicappers Condition Book. Some of it is outdated, most of it is good enough to give you a good idea about the patterns odf developement for horses, especially 3 year olds.
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Old 01-28-2022, 09:22 AM   #9
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Hi Tom

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Old 01-28-2022, 10:01 AM   #10
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to belabor the obvious, in the "real world", horses that are the classiest earn the most money per start, at any point in time that you are using as a reference. of course there are always exceptions. as far as getting a betting edge using this fact is a "horse of a different color", pun intended.
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Old 01-28-2022, 11:43 AM   #11
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to belabor the obvious, in the "real world", horses that are the classiest earn the most money per start, at any point in time that you are using as a reference. of course there are always exceptions. as far as getting a betting edge using this fact is a "horse of a different color", pun intended.
The big problem with earnings is that it stays on a horses' record forever, even if the horse subsequently declines through age, health factors or whatever.
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Old 01-28-2022, 12:08 PM   #12
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The big problem with earnings is that it stays on a horses' record forever, even if the horse subsequently declines through age, health factors or whatever.
what you say is true, that is one of the things that has to be taken into account, and the class handicapper, if he can come up with his solution makes his class rating more valuable than the published, popular ways of estimating class. but money earned is a good start, based on real-world scenarios.
an example would be money earned at face value in non-restricted race events would carry the most weight, when the runner is a colt, less so when a horse,you get the idea.
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Old 01-28-2022, 03:25 PM   #13
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If I use earnings, I just use this year, or this and last. Or plaing FL, just races there.

Or to make really easy, play Aqueduct where there is no class, just biases.
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Old 01-28-2022, 05:01 PM   #14
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I use 19 calculations to make up a class rating.
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Old 01-29-2022, 01:46 PM   #15
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Earnings and earning based metrics can get kind of tricky because of inflated statebred and casino purses and because class isnít static. A horseís form can change. So you want to weight recent performances more than older ones. Not that earnings wonít get you into the ballpark, but I think thereís no value in that direction. I think you need a more refined approach.
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