RESPONSE TO MJC922 FROM OMAR2

[omar2]

NOW GO READ MY POSTS ON KD SCREEN SHOT. ALL THOSE RACES WERE
HANDICAPPED BY ME BEFORE THE RACE USING JUST ONE PACE LINE PER HORSE AND THEN SEE HOW I FARED.
I INSRUCT THE COMPUTER PROGRAM WHICH LINE TO CRUNCH ON EACH HORSE AND THE PROGRAM SPITS OUT THE RESULTS AND AS THE END USER I THEN INTERPRET WHAT THE PROGRAM IS SAYING TO ME.

OMAR

[PaceAdvantage]

You're a genius who can't figure out how to press the CAPS LOCK button...I applaud you good sir!

[omar2]

I knew you were going to say something about that. I’m clairvoyant too.

I think MCJ922 misunderstood me. I’m not picking a race to evaluate the horse’s form cycle but the contrary, I evaluate the horse’s form cycle in order to find the most current representative line on the horse. After running the numbers through the program then I can evaluate the energy requirements for what’s winning presently thru the track profile. But looking at the profile I want to see what’s winning right now. You’re always going to see E, P and S horses in the profile but I want to know what running style is predominant now, usually the current race week and then I’ll give preference to those horses that come up with my race setup and also my current handicapping model. I tend to stay away from dirt races due to short fields and prices unless I’m playing a p3 or p4 or DD. I don’t play contests because I play the races I want to play and not what someone tells me I have to play.
Don’t make an easy game more complicated than it should be. Remember the old saying : K.I.S.S.
Omar

[MJC922]

Good evening Omar. What you said about form I didn't disagree with, what you did by kind of ignoring it altogether is where I started to question how this is going to play out long-term. I believe you drew a line through Tourist Dream's last race which was frankly the worst race the horse ever ran and while that may be effective sometimes there surely will be a bunch of times that's going to bite you back.

The reason you stated for drawing a line through the race is you figured the horse was racing 'too high'. Is 25k nw2l really much higher than his previous two races where he was getting beat by less than 5 lengths? He went off 7-2 that day so he was essentially expected to be on the board. He trailed. So for me I don't buy too high. I can certainly see a reason to look past it like the trainer (Casse) is an ace so you trust the horse will come right back to his prior two efforts which on my numbers btw should win this race or at least be right there on the line but that's a very different reason from too high. I also thought after watching the race he was maybe an out well (thinking back to Paul Mellos trip handicapping video) after the finish line but I guess if the horse never ran a step early he should be out well. Maybe the horse had a major disagreement with the rider that day, who knows. Maybe Mr. Casse knows... all we know is that particular effort would get nothing today or any other day.

So one race is just one race, right? I do agree we can look past it and I likely would have myself. However that one race notion is ultimately why the approach is doomed to reduced accuracy whether that one race is too bad or too good it's problematic in standing alone as representing today's probability. If you do your own research you will learn that one race will be less predictive than multiple races. There are no two ways about it. If you believe less predictive somehow magically = you will be able to identify more overlays and make more money, good luck to you sir.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

However that one race notion is ultimately why the approach is doomed to reduced accuracy whether that one race is too bad or too good it's problematic in standing alone as representing today's probability. If you do your own research you will learn that one race will be less predictive than multiple races. There are no two ways about it. If you believe less predictive somehow magically = you will be able to identify more overlays and make more money, good luck to you sir.

My own research tested against many races verifies what you are saying. In fact, there was a significant improvement. I think it was a little more than 3% extra winners and I wasn't even using any complicated rules to try maximize it. It was all automated and simple. So with some subjective analysis of the horse's record you'd probably do even better.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

My own research tested against many races verifies what you are saying. In fact, there was a significant improvement. I think it was a little more than 3% extra winners and I wasn't even using any complicated rules to try maximize it. It was all automated and simple. So with some subjective analysis of the horse's record you'd probably do even better.

The whales seem to be very skeptical of the "one good line" thing unless its one of the supertrainers, so there is possible value if you think its repeatable.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

The whales seem to be very skeptical of the "one good line" thing unless its one of the supertrainers, so there is possible value if you think its repeatable.

That’s the kind of thing where some subjective judgement will probably outperform a formula. Another one is a very lightly raced horse that is clearly improving. You are going to be better off weighting his early races less than you would if it was some 5yo with more steady established form.

[omar2]

the reason I discarded that last race was not the class but I was thinking the trainer was pointing the horse for a turf route and I just dismissed the 6f race as a public w/o.
I've been doing this for the better part of 37 years and I'm telling you I learned from the best- Dick Mitchell, Howard Sartin and Ray Talbout by choosing one line. Players who average multiple lines are not sure which is the right line to use and not being sure means you should stay out of the race.
For example let's say horse is coming off a layoff and only raced once since then, assume it's 16k. The previous form cycle horse raced for 25k but his races look really bad-unusable. Now going back one form cycle from there the horse shows he ran for 35k. Now my instincts tell me to use the last race, why, because the trainer is telling you he's NOT THE SAME HORSE AS BEFORE because if he was the trainer would put him in for at least 25k to start.
And Mark Cramer wrote a book called FORM CYCLES also.
Now I'm going to show you a race, where I picked one line on each horse from Sat. 9/17 at Pimlico. I DID NOT PLAY THE RACE. I handicapped all 4 turf races but later realized I did not do a track profile for Pimlico. Even a 1 or 2 day profile will give you some insight on how the track is playing, E, P or S horses along with %MED. I can tell just from %MED if the track is favoring closers, early horses or neither[neutral]. Just look at a couple of E horses in the Derby- Spend A Buck and War Emblem. Their %Med #'s told me they had closing ability.
Look at the 3 screen shots. First I sorted by purse value(PV), then class rating(CR) and next by Deceleration column. I know class plays a major role on the grass and in sprints, horses that tire the least will show up. A horse with a fair amount of speed more often than not will show that speed late rather than early. And finally a screen shot of the results. Again I did not play the race and I was kicking myself afterwards for not even looking.
Look wat a simple 4-5 ex box gets you back and ALL BY PICKING 1 LINE ON A HORSE. Using top 2 horses from each screen.
OMAR

[omar2]

Pim R10

[omar2]

Look I know Sartin would eliminate horse thru form to get down to 5 contenders in a race, and Jim the hat Bradshaw did the same. The reason I rate most of the horses is I want to see the effects of all of them on the pace and I also play a lot of exotics, sometimes I wish I could just make straight bets and parlays. Crazy right.
One more point. If you come up with a horse like the 12 and you don’t wheel him up and down, you will feel lower than pond scum if you miss cashing. I know because in 2005 I liked Closing Argument at 71-1 and didn’t come away with the exacta. Look at this years derby, 21-3 paid $4000. What if the 3 and 5 weren’t there, suppose the 13 was second. He was 19-1 and not 9/2 like the 3. I think that # would have been at least $15000.
Omar

[OverlayHunter]

I've looked but can't locate MJC922's remarks that Omar2 is responding to. Can anyone point me in the right direction?

[omar2]

His initial response to me was on 9-13-22 in a post titled " my response to energy distribution".

[Tom]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=172468

Post #4

[OverlayHunter]

omar2 and Tom, thank you both for the assistance. Greatly appreciated.