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Old 09-22-2022, 09:37 AM   #106
lamboguy
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The foal crop numbers are less frightening as long as horses like Into Mischief, Curlin, Gun Runner, Tap It and the entire 1st and 2nd tier of sires keep breeding at the same rate. If horses of much lower quality (like some 3rd and 4th tier state bred programs) are breeding less, it's less of a problem because they are less likely to produce the kind of offspring that will populate major races at major tracks. After that, the number of races (or more importantly tracks!) has to match the foal crop. However, talk like that puts everyone into a tizzy fit. The only other alternative is figuring out a way to increase demand for horses so breeders breed more of them. That takes you right back to the economics of horse ownership. They tend to be pretty bad. That's why there isn't huge demand for horses except at the top end.
there is plenty of demand for horses that used to sell for $10,000 now $40,000. the Koreans and Vietnamese are the buyers of those horses and bring them back home with them.
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Old 09-22-2022, 05:19 PM   #107
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there is plenty of demand for horses that used to sell for $10,000 now $40,000. the Koreans and Vietnamese are the buyers of those horses and bring them back home with them.
I'm not familiar with the economics of racing overseas, but there must be a reason for that.
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Old 09-22-2022, 07:42 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
The foal crop numbers are less frightening as long as horses like Into Mischief, Curlin, Gun Runner, Tap It and the entire 1st and 2nd tier of sires keep breeding at the same rate. If horses of much lower quality (like some 3rd and 4th tier state bred programs) are breeding less, it's less of a problem because they are less likely to produce the kind of offspring that will populate major races at major tracks. After that, the number of races (or more importantly tracks!) has to match the foal crop. However, talk like that puts everyone into a tizzy fit. The only other alternative is figuring out a way to increase demand for horses so breeders breed more of them. That takes you right back to the economics of horse ownership. They tend to be pretty bad. That's why there isn't huge demand for horses except at the top end.
This from the JC website:

Number of Mares Reported Bred to Thoroughbred Stallions in 2021

Stallion Mares
Practical Joke 231
Goldencents 230
Authentic 229
Vekoma 222
Maclean's Music 221
Munnings 219
Into Mischief 216
Omaha Beach 215
McKinzie 214
Mitole 208
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:15 PM   #109
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After that, the number of races (or more importantly tracks!) has to match the foal crop.
]

How's that fewer and fewer tracks working out for dog racing?
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Old 09-23-2022, 10:13 AM   #110
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]

How's that fewer and fewer tracks working out for dog racing?
Dog racing had problems that horse racing is trying to avoid as we speak.

I'd way rather the industry be booming, handle growth be outpacing inflation, old tracks investing in infrastructure, new modern tracks opening, breeding numbers rising, new owners chasing after bigger purses, enough free cash to do all that and lower the take etc..

The problem is no one has been able to figure out a way to increase demand across the industry while simultaneously paying the bills. The best they've been able to do is keep the doors open by taking casino money.

At some point math wins.

The revenue has to keep up with inflation because the costs certainly will.

If you can't find a way to increase revenue you have to find a way to take costs out of the system and consolidate revenue. That at least gives you the free cash to invest and try to turn this vicious cycle into a virtuous one.

If someone has a better idea, I'm all for it. The solutions are over my pay grade. I've just seen this story play out in dozens of industries over the last 35-40 years from watching the action on Wall St. Rapid consolidation is very painful, but it beats a slow death.

Again, I'm all ears. I'm just an observer that doesn't want to see the game die because the leadership refuses to accept math and doesn't have a better idea.
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Old 09-23-2022, 10:58 AM   #111
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If someone has a better idea, I'm all for it. The solutions are over my pay grade. I've just seen this story play out in dozens of industries over the last 35-40 years from watching the action on Wall St. Rapid consolidation is very painful, but it beats a slow death.
Many, many fair points in your comments. I know you want to see the sport thrive, as I do.

My one comment to the particular point you make above is that IMO rapid consolidation likely leads to more rapid elimination in a sport/industry that doesn't NEED to exist. If the consolidation results in tracks located in states without a lot of other horse "presence" - it makes total elimination that much easier.
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Old 09-23-2022, 01:16 PM   #112
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Casinos were supposed to help attract new fans to racing.
That's not the way I remember it. Casinos hooked up with racetracks to attract fans to casinos in areas that didn't have them yet.
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Old 09-23-2022, 01:25 PM   #113
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That's not the way I remember it. Casinos hooked up with racetracks to attract fans to casinos in areas that didn't have them yet.
For decades racing was the only venue outside of NV where one could bet legally. In many cases the tracks were able to leverage that in making deals with casinos in other states. As time goes on that leverage is waning.
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Old 09-23-2022, 10:36 PM   #114
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That's not the way I remember it. Casinos hooked up with racetracks to attract fans to casinos in areas that didn't have them yet.
I thought Casinos hooked up with race tracks to circumvent state laws that prevented them being placed on other property, I dont think Casinos cared one way or the other about racing players or fans.
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Old 09-24-2022, 04:48 PM   #115
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It's a nothingburger for me. First, only these states can you bet on the NFL: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY. I don't live there.
Second, my ADW is TVG.com, but I never watch TVG. I only bet on the big days and Saratoga or when I visit a racetrack in person. I do have to watch TVG today because of the Parx big day. It does suck.
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Old 09-24-2022, 10:22 PM   #116
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It's a nothingburger for me. First, only these states can you bet on the NFL: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY. I don't live there.
Second, my ADW is TVG.com, but I never watch TVG. I only bet on the big days and Saratoga or when I visit a racetrack in person. I do have to watch TVG today because of the Parx big day. It does suck.
You can bet on the NFL legally in Maryland but only at the casinos.
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