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Old 09-08-2022, 12:18 PM   #301
Tom
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Last weekend, at Toga, I saw a horse entered who won it's last, MC10,000, by 20 lenghts.

My first thought was not of Secretariat.
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Old 09-08-2022, 01:13 PM   #302
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What's so great about Country Grammer compared to the rest of CA's hapless older horses?
There's nothing particularly special about him as far as improving multiple Grade 1 winners go, but horses like him don't generally get beat by 19+ lengths when clear of other stakes winners by 7 lengths too often.
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Old 09-08-2022, 01:36 PM   #303
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I agree that it's worth trying to get these things right, but at the end of day imo it's mostly futile.

The smartest figure makers in the game are operating with different time charts, different beaten length charts, different philosophies on pace and weight, handle track speed changes differently, start with different figure inputs and hence make different variants for the same day, barely even use time for turf races etc..

If you've ever had 5 sets of the best figures on your desk at the same time (like I have), you'd see so many differences (some wildly large) your confidence in your ability to get the values right using figures would definitely be shaken. If not, it should be.

As far as the historical record goes, there are sets of figures that have been slowly drifting faster over time, figures that have been slowly drifting slower over time, and still others that stayed the same.

Most figures makers are using different methodologies now than in the past

The racetrack surfaces have changed.

The drug rules and uses (legal and illegal) have changed.

The times of races obviously matter a lot, but the relationship between race development/track surface/time is very complex and individual by horse and the variant process so dependent on the figure maker we are mostly debating a range of plus or minus several lengths. In this case that means "ridiculously unbelievably fast" or "omg did you see that".
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Old 09-08-2022, 01:38 PM   #304
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I'm talking about figures only, not how good he is.

I think his speed figure (whichever you happen to believe is most accurate lol) in the PC may have been surface aided a bit. So he could run better next time but still earn a slower figure on a more honest racetrack.

If he runs a faster figure, hire someone to start building the statue now before prices for raw materials go up any further.
I believe he will but either way it's going to be a fun ride.
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Old 09-08-2022, 01:54 PM   #305
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Timeform Europe sets standards for each class level and assigns numbers to horses based on who is beating who, by how much, how consistently, with what trip, carrying what weight. I believe they look at time also.

IMO, that method has some advantages over purely time based methods when working with older more consistent high quality horses, but has some disadvantages with very lightly raced horses (like 2yos, maiden graduates, limited ALW winners etc..).

He was given a 143 Timeform Europe figure (spectacular) and a 140 Racing Post figure (I think but can't swear to it, but RP numbers average a few lower than TF). So they both have him similar.
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Old 09-08-2022, 07:02 PM   #306
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Greats of the game

Well, speed figures are important and an aspect of the game. But the object of the game is to win horse races. There has to be actual race track performance.

A few examples from the last ten years ( I feel if we go back much further we get many issues concerning changes in the game that muddy the point. )

2014: California Chrome two time HOY and winner of 10 graded stakes.

2014 Game On Dude winner of 14 graded stakes including 8 G1s

2015 American Pharoah 2015 HOY and 8 stakes wins.

2017 Gunrunner 2017 HOY and 10 graded stakes wins

While I think Flightline has to be the fastest horse in the last 20 to 30 years, I dont think he is going to amass enough accomplishments to gain "great horse status, " at least in my book.
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Old 09-08-2022, 07:18 PM   #307
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Here's the thing. You assign Flightline some number. After assigning that number, how the hell do you test it? Do you have a database of 19 length winners in major stakes races who ran super-fast times and beat Grade I horses to compare the performance with? Do you know whether they run the same figure twice?

No, you don't. Which means, with all respect to the people interested in this stuff, it's all hocus pocus. Because speed figures were never designed, and CANNOT MEASURE, the quality of super-freakish performances. Because they are, by definition, super-freakish and there are not enough such performances. You can't, therefore, test the figures by whether the horse runs back to them, and you have no basis to project the number (which is what figure makers are doing in this scenario anyway).

It's all hocus pocus, classic statistical flim-flam, meant to put an "objective" number on something we lack data to measure.

Obviously, figure makers have to sell their product, so they have to assign some number. But it is not real, it is not scientific, and it isn't how you measure a performance like this. Super-freakish performances exist outside of the realm of speed figures.

And none of this is to denigrate what speed figures are actually relevant and useful and indeed the best thing ever invented for, which is comparing the performances of horses entered in races.

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Old 09-08-2022, 08:22 PM   #308
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See post 301

Got at least 1!
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Old 09-08-2022, 09:18 PM   #309
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Out of curiosity I searched the On-Target database which goes back quite a ways. I have the following for best races on dirt:

Arrogate's 2016 Travers
Curlin's 2007 BC Classic
Frosted's 2016 Met Mile
Gun Runner's 2018 Pegasus
Flightline's 2022 Pacific Classic

Granted Flightline's isn't entirely finalized yet, that may drift up or down a bit as more data comes in. It takes about 6 months to fully lock in but it's definitely a huge number when we're looking at 15 years of races, 5.5 million individual ratings. The highest class rating is something else however. The best career effort means something but not everything as far as 'class' goes. You need to keep showing up.
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Old 09-08-2022, 09:35 PM   #310
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
What's so great about Country Grammer compared to the rest of CA's hapless older horses?

He was a minor 3yo at best who was thoroughly thrashed in the Travers. He was no better than on even terms with Royal Ship as a 4yo. I guess you can point to him reversing form on Royal Ship in a irrelevant battle for 2nd in the Pacific Classic (though Smith appeared to wrap up well before the 1/16th pole) after getting his head handed to him in the San Diego, but the reality is he just stays better than Royal Ship, who came over from Brazil with the record of a turf sprinter/miler.

His middle east races were laughable affairs. An international array of bridesmaids got together to see who would get stuck in the winner's circle.

There was a good chance that Warrant would have been a clear second in the Pacific Classic last Saturday.
I dont get running Royal Ship at 10 furlongs, feels much further than his best distance. I guess 3rd in a million dollar race still pays pretty good.
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Old 09-08-2022, 09:48 PM   #311
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These are very very closely rated efforts btw. ex. Arrogate's was negative half a point and Flightline's negative a quarter point. That's on a sheet scale, on Beyer's scale it would be maybe one point, not much.
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Old 09-08-2022, 09:55 PM   #312
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These are very very closely rated efforts btw. ex. Arrogate's was negative half a point and Flightline's negative a quarter point. That's on a sheet scale, on Beyer's scale it would be maybe one point, not much.
I like Arrogate...a lot...he would probably be spotting Flightline 5 at the QP, maybe more if they ran their best race, and the race would be over at that point.

And this is not some homer deal, I dont really like their owner or trainer all that much.
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Old 09-08-2022, 10:03 PM   #313
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I dont get running Royal Ship at 10 furlongs, feels much further than his best distance. I guess 3rd in a million dollar race still pays pretty good.
Probably chasing that lost opportunity in last year's Gold Cup when he was ridden poorly.

Classwise, he should probably go for the BC Dirt Undercard Mile but he might make noise in the BC Turf Sprint especially if it were down-the-hill at Santa Anita.
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Old 09-09-2022, 06:47 AM   #314
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Other than number of races at this point he is easily comparable in ability to Secretariat or any other horse in history. He wasn't close to being all out in the Pacific Classic and they say he will probably race next year and we'll see what happens.
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Old 09-09-2022, 08:09 AM   #315
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