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Old 08-26-2022, 01:50 PM   #31
cj
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I haven't been the biggest Early Voting fan.

I think you can make a reasonable case that speed was better than average and the rail was the best path Wood Memorial day but he still got caught by Mo Donegal (although MD did close from far out up the rail).

I think you can make a reasonable case that Pimlico was carrying speed types well Preakness day and may have helped carry him to that big figure.

The Jim Dandy track condition wasn't what I would call "biased" but imo it was more testing than average and certainly more testing than for either of the efforts that gave him his reputation.

What he has going for him tomorrow is that he'll probably be loose again and maybe the track will be a little kinder to him and he'll be a bit fitter. We'll have plenty of races to watch before the Travers. I'm most curious as to how he's going to get bet.
I have a sneaky feeling he is going to look to stalk another horse. Led in Wood, lost. Stalked in Preakness, won. Led in Dandy, lost. Just a guess, but he's in the perfect spot to do it. It is just a matter of which other horses want to go. Cyberknife or Ain't Life Grand would be my guesses.
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Old 08-26-2022, 04:56 PM   #32
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I bet my buddy 10 dollars Rich Strike won't hit the board. Also if he wins, I promised to get on my knees, bow down and say, "Im not worthy".

I bet Cyberknife in the Derby and Haskell. So Im betting him again in the Travers.

he failed miserably in the derby at 10f, what will be the difference this out.

i am tossing the knife and early voting

bullish on zandon, he puts it all together tomorrow and wins for fun.

Allan
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Old 08-26-2022, 05:39 PM   #33
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he failed miserably in the derby at 10f, what will be the difference this out.

i am tossing the knife and early voting

bullish on zandon, he puts it all together tomorrow and wins for fun.

Allan
Trips matter. Pace matters.

3YOs maturing matters.

Cyberknife may well be the now horse. Taiba and Jack Christopher aren't running here for some odd reason.
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Old 08-26-2022, 06:00 PM   #34
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Cyberknife got a good trip in the Haskell. Facing similar quality, half the price.
Cox is a good trainer. Although I don't like the value, he's certainly an ex tri candidate, or could win with another good trip.

Looks like it comes down to Epicenter's trip vs the uncoupled Brown trio.

Zandon can also win outright on a good day.
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Old 08-26-2022, 07:21 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
I have a sneaky feeling he is going to look to stalk another horse. Led in Wood, lost. Stalked in Preakness, won. Led in Dandy, lost. Just a guess, but he's in the perfect spot to do it. It is just a matter of which other horses want to go. Cyberknife or Ain't Life Grand would be my guesses.
That's what I was thinking was the logical plan for the horse, but there doesn't seem to be a horse in there that can be expected to go for the lead.

Still even on the lead, despite the misgivings, he has some advantages. One I left off the earlier post is that reportedly the track is a lot "tighter" now after some recent maintenance. In general, that often helps the front-running types.
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Old 08-26-2022, 11:36 PM   #36
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Cyberknife got a good trip in the Haskell. Facing similar quality, half the price.
Cox is a good trainer. Although I don't like the value, he's certainly an ex tri candidate, or could win with another good trip.

Looks like it comes down to Epicenter's trip vs the uncoupled Brown trio.

Zandon can also win outright on a good day.
Pretty sure I'll get Cyberknife at 5/1 or better. He is the right play at those odds.
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Old 08-27-2022, 01:06 AM   #37
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Epicenter always shows up and is most likely to hit the board

Gotta figure at least one of the Chad Brown trio hits the board.

I like the Early Voting, think he was just warming up in the Jim Dandy and should get a good trip, not a lot of speed in this race.

Zandon is also solid and will be using him as well.

Finally a long shot with a chance to hit the board Iím going with Rich Strike to strike lightning once again, donít think he liked the Belmont track or distance as well as racing off the rail. Keep him near the rail, let him do his thing, letís the chips fall where they may, he wonít get the suicidal pace, but he should run better than last time and if he sees daylight he could make things interesting once again.

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Old 08-27-2022, 09:49 AM   #38
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IMO, if anyone was out of position in the Jim Dandy it was Zandon in the role of stalker/chaser in that small field. Regardless of whether they use Early Votingís speed to get loose or try to stalk this time instead, I donít think Zandon is going to be sitting second in this larger field. Heíll probably get more of a middle of the pack position and make a late run. Epicenter will be the deserving favorite, but imo Zandon has been moving forward also. I donít think the gap is insurmountable going 10F if he gets ignored a bit in the betting because heís lost to him 3 times. But I think you need to get paid to try to beat Epicenter.
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Old 08-27-2022, 10:37 AM   #39
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Losing Charge It from this Travers really killed the race from a wagering stand point imo, at least in the vertical wagers. Anyone playing them will need to take a stand somewhere to create value, mine will be against Cyberknife.

Thought he had really good trips in his two Gr I wins, ones that he may not get today. Gonna try to run him out of the top 4. Gilded Age the one that may offer some value in the 3rd and more so the 4th spot.
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Old 08-27-2022, 10:40 AM   #40
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Suppose Geroux sends Cyberknife to the lead and Early Voting sits second.

I can only see three of them winning. From the rail out Cyberknife, Artorius, and Epicenter. Good luck today
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Old 08-27-2022, 11:09 AM   #41
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if RICH STRIKE wins today, that will throw a monkey wrench into everything.

thank god this is a great race today
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Old 08-27-2022, 12:10 PM   #42
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Alright, so crunched numbers and all the fun stuff.

Zandon

Should be the right price at 7/2 or better. Epicenter is the one to beat, but form says he'll digress a bit today. Artorius is the wildcard, but if less than 8/1 not worth the investment. are interesting, but likely just exotic fillers.
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Old 08-27-2022, 12:36 PM   #43
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Artorius is going to find out what real horses are just like the overrated Olympiad did.
He looks a little toppy to me, kind of like Epicenter....
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Old 08-27-2022, 12:57 PM   #44
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Chad Brown has 3 of the 8 horses, wow.

for W and P.
tri ww
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Old 08-27-2022, 01:34 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
I have a sneaky feeling he is going to look to stalk another horse. Led in Wood, lost. Stalked in Preakness, won. Led in Dandy, lost. Just a guess, but he's in the perfect spot to do it. It is just a matter of which other horses want to go. Cyberknife or Ain't Life Grand would be my guesses.
The preakness he waited for and then did like a 'workout target' vs his Irad on some hopeless out-of-Baffert long shot.
While that may have confused the field rivals committed to a mid-pack/tracking style, and was aided by Rosario's terrible position, I think it hints at being able to set a slow pace if no one wants to go.


Maybe the overhyped track is a conClayer belt? And Cyberknife and Early Voting will actually both be happy to set a honest pace and he can choose to track?

If not I think Early Voting may be able to set a slow pace and just run independently of Zandon and if good enough, contend.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-27-2022 at 01:38 PM.
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