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Old 10-11-2019, 05:29 PM   #16
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R7-MSW Lrl

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Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
R7-2 y.o.-MSW-1M
No.-----ML-----Rank
-----15-1----9
-----8-1-----6/7
-----5-1------3
-----8-1-----6/7
-----6-1-----4/5
-----12-1-----8
------6-1-----4/5
------7-2------1
------30-1----10
-----9-2------2
Again with the multiple ML's. This is race, I might miss doing, or at last possible minute.
Tough race(my notebooks have this type of race as (Chaos & Pain)
+4 odds adv, & 60% EM
+3 odds adv.
No odds rank in DD's but +3 ex. odds adv. + 58% EM
#1 lowest odds rank in DD's +1 adv. & 50+% EM
Box the in exactas and also box these three with & in exactas
Dutch the to Win
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Old 10-11-2019, 06:00 PM   #17
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Race 8 Lrl

R8-Lrl-didn't do this one earlier.,
20-1 ML 3-1 EM$ 85% drop +7/+9 odds in DD's
10-1 ML 20% EM drop +3/+4 odds in DD's
6-1 ML 3/2 EM$ 75% drop-+1/+2 odds in DD's
Boxing these three in exactas and Betting Win
Will check exactas odds
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Old 10-11-2019, 06:32 PM   #18
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R9-Lrl

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R9- Maiden Clm-I missed this one originally
No.------ML------Rank
------6-1------5/6
------9-2-------2
------5-1------3/4
-----10-1-------7
-----12-1------8/9
------5-1------3/4
------4-1-------1
------15-1-----10
------12-1-----8/9
----20-1-----11
-----6-1-----5/6
Not often you see the lowest ML at 4-1, Lots of 5's, 6's, and 12-1's again. So I'm thinking that ML person sees a chaos race, we'll see if tote is rapidly changing for favorite-ship.
Well maybe the ML guy sees it as scrambled, but the public, or someone is all on the
at 10-1 ML & 4/5 EM$- and +6 odds rank. Hard to take at even money, we'll see how it shakes out. Maybe the its odds will drift all the way up to 2-1.
& both look very sharp on track
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Old 10-11-2019, 07:07 PM   #19
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R10: MdClm Lrl

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R8-Lrl-5-1/2f-MdClm-F&M
No.-----ML-----Rank
-----20-1----8/9
-----10-1----5/6
------2-1-----1
-----15-1-----7
-----8-1------4
-----10-1----5/6
-----9-2------3
-----5-2------2
-----20-1----8/9
Last maiden at Lrl. Not sure I can still stream Laurel's feed live, it seems to be restricted at times.
+2 DD odds rank,#1 & 50% EM
+2/+3 DD odds rank
#2 DD rank +50% EM-likely favorite
Three horse box and bet & win
/ & exacta box
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Old 10-11-2019, 07:31 PM   #20
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R10 results:

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+2 DD odds rank,#1 & 50% EM
+2/+3 DD odds rank
#2 DD rank +50% EM-likely favorite
Three horse box and bet & win
/ & exacta box
Had winner and exacta in 1st and 10th races only.
Ran 7-3-4 $10.00 win and 29.80 exacta. Will review all later, hit 1st and 10th only.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:40 PM   #21
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R1 results

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What I'm seeing at this point, @5 mtp
+4 odds rank +33% EM$ drop.
had an 80% drop in early money, which is always dangerous, it wasn't bet across all pools, just for the win.
I'd lean more towards the and box it with and in exacta.
At 5-1, I'd probably make a win bet on for a saver
They ran Winner paid 7.00 and won by 6-1/2L's. Exacta paid 15.40.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:02 PM   #22
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Final synopsis

Only two winners today, three of my tote picks were leading a long way, two into the stretch before coughing it up, one at 12-1. They were races 4, 7, & 9. We will do this again, probably at Parx, maybe Penn some evening, and a Florida track. I used to play NY tracks almost exclusively, but haven't in a long while now, since the inner dirt shut down.
Trying to analyze the tote action, and recording it onto PA, then showing some results, it amazes me that the other tote players on here can keep up with all the information, they're showing.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:20 PM   #23
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watching tote

Thank You for our input on this subject. One of the things I sometimes do is to look for the horse with the second largest place pool and compare the win odds between the favorite and that horse. if the win odds of the second horse is 5 times that of the fave but the place purse is only half then I think I'm on to something. Of course the fave wins often but does that horse with the second largest place pool win often enough to make a profit? I mostly play for fun so I haven't really analyzed it but that is what I try sometimes. Do you have the ability to see real time purse data?? I've often thought it might be worthwhile to plot velocity of purse growth in the last few minutes since I think insiders tend to bet last minute. Your thoughts??
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:43 PM   #24
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Thank You for our input on this subject. One of the things I sometimes do is to look for the horse with the second largest place pool and compare the win odds between the favorite and that horse. if the win odds of the second horse is 5 times that of the fave but the place purse is only half then I think I'm on to something. Of course the fave wins often but does that horse with the second largest place pool win often enough to make a profit? I mostly play for fun so I haven't really analyzed it but that is what I try sometimes. Do you have the ability to see real time purse data?? I've often thought it might be worthwhile to plot velocity of purse growth in the last few minutes since I think insiders tend to bet last minute. Your thoughts??
Hello Gakiss2, Yes I've tried working with place and show pools as ratios to the win pools also. My problem was, I'd get a ratio calculated and the very next blink of the tote pool update, and my ratios all went out the window. Without some auto-input into my spreadsheet, It was too hard to react. I get pretty up to the minute data from DRF's live odds screens, but it only updates on the minute, or a little more often, but it's pretty accurate. It will update as they're loading into the gate, but it also shows updates, as they're out the gate and halfway down the back stretch. So it's real time to the second, there's always a lag, how much I don't know. As to insiders only betting the last minute, I agree and disagree. I've seen it happen both ways all the time. Since I can only react to early money and reasonably late money, I don't even try to reach to the late-late money. While I only had two winners today, they both had early money bet on them, in relation to their ML odds. I will try to show in the coming weeks, some fairly dramatic early money effect on the odds with a few winners.
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Old 10-12-2019, 08:48 AM   #25
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Tote Play-10/12-Meadowlands-Race 6

R6-Med-MdClm 10K-1 Mile on Turf-
Nice full field for a Maiden Clm- Post Tm. 2:50 p.m.

No. Name ----ML--------Rank
Dealin Stelan- -10/1--------4
Mystery Guest--12/1--------7
Love It ----------8/1---------3
Knight Frost-----12/1-------7
Thekidsback-----12/1-------7
Unforgiven--------5/2-------1
The Jewel Factor--5/1-------2
Azzedine----------10/1------4
Macho Pronto-----20/1------11
Calling Cairo-----12/1------7
Indigo Heart-----10/1------4
Taking a slightly diff. approach, if there's multiple ML's, I'm giving them all the same rank. This doesn't artificially make any +plus odds rankings too high, more realistic. I've done this in the past when didn't have the pp's available. Looking back through my records, it was usually more obvious plus factors that did well, against a more conservative ML ranking.
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Old 10-12-2019, 09:12 AM   #26
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Tote Play-R1-Parx-10/12-Waiver Mdn Clm

R1-Parx- Waiver MdnClm-20K-1M-dirt-Full fieldP.T. 12:55 p.m.
No. ----ML-------Rank
-----5/1--------#5
----5/1---------5
-----4/1---------3
-----9/5---------2
-----9/2---------4
----15/1---------7 (Lt. Columbo)at the trk, wife would want to bet it.
----20/1---------9
-----8/1---------6
----20/1---------9
----20/1---------9
---15/1--------7
----8/5---------1
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Old 10-12-2019, 09:24 AM   #27
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Tote play-R2-Parx 10/12-Mdn Clm

R2-Parx- Mdn Clm 10K-1 M-2nd full field
No.------ML--------Rank
------9/5--------#1
-----9/5---------1
------4/1---------3
-----30/1---------9
-----15/1---------7
-----20/1---------8
-----12/1---------6
-----30/1---------9
------5/2---------2
------6/1---------5
-----9/2---------4
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Old 10-12-2019, 09:48 AM   #28
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Tote play-R3-Parx 10/12-Waiv. Mdn Clm

R3-Parx-6f-Mdn Clm-20K-F&M
No.-------ML--------Rank
-------9/2--------#2
------12/1--------7
------20/1--------10
------20/1--------10
-------5/1---------3
------20/1--------10
-------7/2---------1
-------8/1---------5
-------6/1---------4
-----12/1--------7
-----10/1--------6
-----15/1--------9
a.e.-------------------------
----20/1
-----3/1
----12/1
Will re-order ranks if any a.e. get in
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Old 10-12-2019, 10:03 AM   #29
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Tote play-R4-Parx-10/12-MdnClm 30K

R4-Parx-1m70y-MdnClm 30k
No.--------ML--------Rank
-------15/1--------#8
-------12/1----------6
-------12/1----------6
--------5/1----------3
-------15/1---------8
-------20/1---------10
--------6/1----------4
--------7/2----------2
--------2/1----------1
------10/1---------5
a.e.---------------------
Will re-order ranks if any a.e. draw in.
That's 4 straight maidens at Parx, and another one follows this one for five.
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:52 PM   #30
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R1-Parx

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R1-Parx- Waiver MdnClm-20K-1M-dirt-Full fieldP.T. 12:55 p.m.
No. ----ML-------Rank
-----5/1--------#5
----5/1---------5
-----4/1---------3
-----9/5---------2
-----9/2---------4
----15/1---------7 (Lt. Columbo)at the trk, wife would want to bet it.
----20/1---------9
-----8/1---------6
----20/1---------9
----20/1---------9
---15/1--------7
----8/5---------1
+5 Odds Rank +60% EM W
+4 Odds Rank +50-55% EM W
+2 Odds rank

Box these 3 for exacta.
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