Good Morning PA Friends.
Here is a look at the first 5 races today at Harrahs Philadelphia using my SNAPSHOT software. I will post the graphs, how to read them, as well as the Class Information and selections on each race.
Each horse is graphed based off of their highest total energy output race within the last 3 races. This also is slightly modified if there are recent trainer changes.
Once the line is selected based on total energy, each quarter of the race is broken down to velocity in feet per second. This is also adjusted based on track, as we all know some tracks are faster than others and are different sizes.
The graph will show these velocities at each quarter. The X Axis will represent each individual quarter, whereas the Y Axis will represent the velocity at that quarter. This also allows a handicapper to see how a race might setup, taking into consideration post and driver changes/aggressive tactics.
Class is calculated a few different ways. It doesn't look at recent races or NW6000 dropping to NW3000, but more so where the horse has been competitive. It doesn't matter if a horse is dropping to NW3000 if they've only been competitive in NW1200. This is a fantastic way to breakdown class and is one of the main factors I use. With that being said, it is much more reliable in older horses than 2YO's. Just seems like 2YO's are just too unpredictable and green.
Now on to today's card.
R1.png
Race 1 is a $15,000 Claiming Pace. Looking at the graph, 4-7-1 separate themselves early. Tyler Davis may not leave today from Post 7. Regardless, both 4 and 7 slow down in the second 1/4, as many times they do. 1 One More Miracle actually makes a move off that nice first 1/4 velocity, and still makes a move in the final quarter.
Class shows 8-7-1-5-2 in that order. It looks as though the 8 just doesn't have enough late move to overcome the poor post. 5 Astor does come home pretty good in the final quarter.
My selections this race would be
1 One More Miracle
5 Astor
3 Artache Hanover
R2.png
Race 2 is a NW14000L5 Trot. Looking at the graph, there is no real standouts the initial 1/4 mile. This will probably come out almost in line by PP. The 6 Shez On Cruz makes a nice 3rd 1/4 move that will absolutely put her in contention. I am not entirely a fan that she doesn't hold onto that move through the final 1/4, but she should be in contention here. There are many here that have a decent last 1/4 finish. Due to the fact that I think they line are pretty close to PP, I will look at 1,2,4,5,6. That will give me leader, pocket, 1st over and 2nd over and big 3rd 1/4 move as the 5 contenders.
Class shows 7-2-5-6-1 in order. The 7 doesn't have a huge close and unfortunately will most likely be unable to overcome post 7. It looks like 2 DW's Revenge doesn't quit in the stretch, and should have a nice trip here. 4 Coastal Region does come home fairly decent, and has a much better 3rd 1/4 velocity than 5 Bands Houdini.
My selections for Race 2
2 DWs Revenge
1 Sir John F
6 Shez On Cruz
4 Coastal Region *Underneath*
R3.png
Race 3 is a NW 1 Pace. As you can tell, 1 More More More isn't graphed. Looking at her races individually, she is absolutely a contender here. These type of races, I always look for those that are still coming in the final 1/4. Here, it is the 2,3,4. It looks as though 4-5-7 (and 1) are much faster than the rest in the first 1/4. I don't see Dexter leaving from Post 7 today.
Class shows 8-1-4-6-3. 8 Ouija is a contender, but needs a good trip from post 8. She is the top Total Energy and can't be omitted. Looking at the race setup and the way they are finishing the mile, I think this race is a 4 horse race, 4-8-1-3.
My selections for Race 3 are
4 Sweet Sue
8 Ouija
1 More More More
3 Dancin With Rose *Underneath*
R4.png
Race 4 is a NW7000L5 Pace. Looks like 2 Dream Of Luck has a nice line. Although this 5 YO is ranked 6th in Total Energy, he must be looked at closely here. I do like how 4 Hot Deuce and 5 Winbak Willy T sustain their moves into the final 1/4. 7 Teo Enteo A has a very nice middle move, but from post 7, that must be sustainable, which looks like it is not the case.
Class shows 1-6-8-4-3. The 1 Art Scene is also the Top Total Energy, which always means he must be on the ticket. Regardless of velocity changes, the top class and top total energy is always sitting on a big race. The 6, 8 and 3, unfortunately are unable to sustain a move throughout the race.
Race 4 Selections
1 Art Scene
4 Hot Deuce
5 Winbak Willy T
R5.png
Race 5 is a NW10000L5 Trot. The 8 Bazaar Bazaar is the top early pace, and Tim Tetrick can be aggressive. This one could make the lead today! I do like a late move from 3 Christopher Crazo and 4 Deo as well. Although not overly impressive, 1 Skyway Cobra also makes a nice 3rd 1/4 move (Increased drastically in velocity).
Class Shows 4-3-1-7-8. The 7 Northern Major doesn't sustain his move in the final 1/4 and will be eliminated from my contention.
My Selections for Race 5
4 Deo
8 Bazaar Bazaar
1 Skyway Cobra
3 Christopher Crazo
Best Of Luck Today!
