Belmont Stakes: Probables and Possibles

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by grvaden1

How about Everfast and/or Laughing Fox in the Belmont. Of the two, I would give Everfast the edge.

On another point, has anyone compared the FPS ratings for the Preakness and the Derby?

Gerry

Deep closers like these 2 are overbet when they stretch out, especially in the Belmont. Everfast, in particular, got a dream trip in the Preakness laying off a fast pace while saving ground on what may have been a golden rail. He's not likely to be that lucky again and will likely regress to his usual dismal form.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Yes, it's big and sandy. I've galloped horses there. Also true that Japanese tracks are sandy so you can say that Mater Fencer is at least used to it and has had some success on the surface. Then again both Belmont and Japanese tracks also have other components and may differ overall. He doesn't seem to have a problem with typical American surfaces either and there are several American horses in the Belmont who have run better than him on them. He might have a chance at a minor placing though I wouldn't bet on it.

To be honest, I'm a bit of a fan of Japanese horses when they race here. They have stamina and finish well but have just not been good enough for the top Belmont placing.
My favorite was Lani and his pre-race antics. He would get an erection in the post parade.
He ran well and finished 3rd or 4th.

[Boris]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

There's no real reason to hate War of Will at this point either.

How about the way he ran in the last 6 seconds of the Derby that he didn't have to run in the Preakness? He beat the "B" team in a race that will be 18 seconds shorter than the Belmont. He'd have to look fantastic over the next three weeks.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Boris

How about the way he ran in the last 6 seconds of the Derby that he didn't have to run in the Preakness? He beat the "B" team in a race that will be 18 seconds shorter than the Belmont. He'd have to look fantastic over the next three weeks.

Yes, see how he trains up to the Belmont.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Boris

How about the way he ran in the last 6 seconds of the Derby that he didn't have to run in the Preakness? He beat the "B" team in a race that will be 18 seconds shorter than the Belmont. He'd have to look fantastic over the next three weeks.

You mean the last 6 seconds after he was fouled and had to recover and rebuild momentum. The Preakness showed what this horse can really do when not fouled. His TFUS Preakness figure was also better than Max Sec's winning Derby figure and the best 3YO figure run this year. He has already looked pretty fantastic. The only question is can he maintain his current hot form over the 12 furlongs of the Belmont. Don't see much evidence he can't.

[vtec]

i'll take game winner if he goes, ran the best race in the derby by far.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

So the meat of the race was slow and then fast late. Thanks.
I would go with Master Fencer.

So by calling the Derby pace slow you are detracting from Max Sec front running performance. Weren't you one of those arguing that he was robbed because he was clearly the best in the Derby. Funny you didn't mention this slow pace bias he enjoyed in the Derby then.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

So by calling the Derby pace slow you are detracting from Max Sec front running performance. Weren't you one of those arguing that he was robbed because he was clearly the best in the Derby. Funny you didn't mention this slow pace bias he enjoyed in the Derby then.

What's done is done. Please let's grow up and move on. Thanks.

The Belmont is next on my agenda and wouldn't mind other people's input for this race.

[Fightingirish51195]

Even though I think the Preakness set up perfectly for him, war of will can absolutely win the Belmont

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

What's done is done. Please let's grow up and move on. Thanks.

The Belmont is next on my agenda and wouldn't mind other people's input for this race.

Just trying to figure out your current Belmont pick based on things you concluded about these horses from the Derby pace. I'll be glad to stick to the Belmont.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Even though I think the Preakness set up perfectly for him, war of will can absolutely win the Belmont

I agree. He had to be good enough to take advantage of these conditions and earn such a good figure (122 TFUS). Top 3YO figure this year so far. He wasn't the only horse in the race that got a rail trip and was close to a fast pace.

[chiguy]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Yes, it's big and sandy. I've galloped horses there. Also true that Japanese tracks are sandy so you can say that Mater Fencer is at least used to it and has had some success on the surface. Then again both Belmont and Japanese tracks also have other components and may differ overall. He doesn't seem to have a problem with typical American surfaces either and there are several American horses in the Belmont who have run better than him on them. He might have a chance at a minor placing though I wouldn't bet on it.

Thanks!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Just trying to figure out your current Belmont pick based on things you concluded about these horses from the Derby pace. I'll be glad to stick to the Belmont.

I'm going with the most recent trend - Tapit colts. And about Master Fencer, if the pace was slow (mid-part) for the Derby and front-runners got a breather, then he shouldn't have been able to close the gap that much in the stretch, no?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

I'm going with the most recent trend - Tapit colts. And about Master Fencer, if the pace was slow (mid-part) for the Derby and front-runners got a breather, then he shouldn't have been able to close the gap that much in the stretch, no?

Fine, go with the most recent fashion trend. It's your money. I much prefer to go with statistical probability analysis.

As for the Derby, There was a thread a while back where CJ and I were discussing how races with an uneven pace, such as fast-slow-fast, are harder on those close to that pace than those running more evenly away from those fractions, mainly those early fast ones. It's a more sophisticated form of pace analysis. Yes the front-runners got a breather, especially in the 4th quarter, but Master Fencer got a breather the entire first mile. He got a perfect easy even trip in the Derby setting up a strong finish. I'll agree that he did finish stronger than other horses who had a similar trip so I'll give him credit for that. However, I repeat that closers stretching out are usually overbet especially when they still got beat by several horses that had more uneven trips.

[Robert Fischer]

Aside from maybe the very entry-level stuff in Japan, Master Fencer has never really separated from the pack.

It shouldn't have been a shock to anyone if he closed with the flow in the Derby and the pace collapsed, and he happened to run a non-threatening 3rd or 4th. He was a bad price to do so, but it wasn't impossible. He's not some horrible horse, he just doesn't have any tactical speed.

As it happened, he finished the race better than expected. He closed very well. But he did no running early.

There was also no excuse. If you loved a Game Winner, or a Tacitus, you can build more of a case in the Derby about how they didn't get to run the complete race that they are capable of. Master Fencer, on the other hand, ran his race.

He's still shown nothing to indicate that he can be close enough early(and/or put a complete race together) to contend for a win in a decent US dirt race. Even at 12 furlongs. Even if the field comes up soft and a horse like War of Will sets a moderate/slow pace.

He also figures to be an even worse price than he was in the Derby.

That doesn't mean that it's impossible for him to hit the board in the Belmont.