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Old 05-12-2019, 11:13 AM   #16
zico20
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Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195 View Post
Like I said, he doesn’t need the need. What do you mean by he’s an all or nothing horse?
He either wins or he is nowhere. He is never close in the races he loses that it shows. No he does not need the lead, but he has been running against such inferior horses that his final speed figures will be much lower here with the step up in class, plus the longer distance.
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Old 05-12-2019, 11:18 AM   #17
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When I say running against better competition I’m referring to the possibility of WoW, Improbable, and to a lesser extent Bourbon War, Laughing Fox, and Signalman.

Like I said, it’s hard to say too much about how I view AlwaysMining in this particular race until the field takes shape.

However...

To not even try the horse in a single derby prep does give me some pause... I read an article about how the owners were pointing him to the Preakness all along, which if that is your ultimate goal with the horse they likely went about it the right way imo. Kept him local and let him beat up on inferior competition while cashing checks....something tells me that the horse needed some confidence building races... now how will he do when he comes neck and neck with a Improbable or War of Will at the 1/8th pole?
Or he could have been underrated or improved with maturity.
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Old 05-12-2019, 11:27 AM   #18
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He either wins or he is nowhere. He is never close in the races he loses that it shows. No he does not need the lead, but he has been running against such inferior horses that his final speed figures will be much lower here with the step up in class, plus the longer distance.
Two poor races. One on yielding turf in Sept and one almost a year ago. Has had 6 straight big wins since.
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Old 05-12-2019, 11:40 AM   #19
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He either wins or he is nowhere. He is never close in the races he loses that it shows. No he does not need the lead, but he has been running against such inferior horses that his final speed figures will be much lower here with the step up in class, plus the longer distance.
2 year old form is irrelevant, your other analysis may be correct though. Maybe he’s not that good.

But I disagree mightily with all or nothing
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Old 05-12-2019, 11:56 AM   #20
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2 year old form is irrelevant, your other analysis may be correct though. Maybe he’s not that good.

But I disagree mightily with all or nothing
Even if he runs his best race, he is still not in the top 4 if the others run their best race. He needs something bad to happen to some of the others or them to throw in a clunker, which happens all the time, even at the highest level.
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Old 05-12-2019, 12:15 PM   #21
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He either wins or he is nowhere. He is never close in the races he loses that it shows. No he does not need the lead, but he has been running against such inferior horses that his final speed figures will be much lower here with the step up in class, plus the longer distance.
horse's speed figures do no always go down when they rise in class except in the case where they are unable to contest a faster pace. That can only be assessed on a case by case basis.
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Old 05-12-2019, 12:30 PM   #22
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I think he is fools gold.
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Old 05-13-2019, 10:27 AM   #23
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I think he is fools gold.
I'm skeptical but he looks better than Diamond King at this time last year. Mining ran a 37.15 final 3/8th in his 9F prep in a race run not terribly different than the FL Derby. His Brsnet and Equibase figures fit. Can't really complain about the pedigree. Not a toss in my book.
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Old 05-13-2019, 11:12 AM   #24
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I'm skeptical but he looks better than Diamond King at this time last year. Mining ran a 37.15 final 3/8th in his 9F prep in a race run not terribly different than the FL Derby. His Brsnet and Equibase figures fit. Can't really complain about the pedigree. Not a toss in my book.
I dont think he is a toss, but i dont see him winning the race and i think he will be way over bet.
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Old 05-15-2019, 09:57 AM   #25
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i think you really have to like the horse a little.

considering the alternatives and also how low improbable and wow are going to be.

but it does seem like many of these horses would clean up in those 100k races as well.......but this tesio/preakness version seems much better than usual
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:15 PM   #26
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3rd or 4th choice is poor value on this horse.

I'll 'reluctantly include' this guy, if I have a strong enough opinion about Improbable or War of Will.

Looking like a tough betting race for me, but I should do better in the multi's and/or deeper verticals
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Old 05-15-2019, 03:36 PM   #27
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3rd or 4th choice is poor value on this horse.

I'll 'reluctantly include' this guy, if I have a strong enough opinion about Improbable or War of Will.

Looking like a tough betting race for me, but I should do better in the multi's and/or deeper verticals
looks like there will be depressed odds across the board for almost every horse.

always looks pretty fast. i see joevia and grey magician in those 100k races..so the comp could be a smidge better than normal....plus he's destroyed every field by open lengths
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Old 05-16-2019, 12:39 AM   #28
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The vintage of those wins and figures compare pretty favorably. But increasingly stunted in class more recently. Hard to see that as a favorable tactic. Not compelling as fourth choice at single-digit odds. I agree the local action will anchor those odds down, too.
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Old 05-16-2019, 01:15 AM   #29
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Easy carry.
This is a nice horse.
A definite win threat.
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:17 AM   #30
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The doubts people have about Alwaysmining and his competition sound awfully similar to what was being said about Maximum Security prior to Florida and Kentucky Derbies.
Yeah, well MS finished 17th.
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