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05-12-2019, 11:13 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195
Like I said, he doesn’t need the need. What do you mean by he’s an all or nothing horse?
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He either wins or he is nowhere. He is never close in the races he loses that it shows. No he does not need the lead, but he has been running against such inferior horses that his final speed figures will be much lower here with the step up in class, plus the longer distance.
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Last edited by zico20; 05-12-2019 at 11:18 AM.
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05-12-2019, 11:18 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6
When I say running against better competition I’m referring to the possibility of WoW, Improbable, and to a lesser extent Bourbon War, Laughing Fox, and Signalman.
Like I said, it’s hard to say too much about how I view AlwaysMining in this particular race until the field takes shape.
However...
To not even try the horse in a single derby prep does give me some pause... I read an article about how the owners were pointing him to the Preakness all along, which if that is your ultimate goal with the horse they likely went about it the right way imo. Kept him local and let him beat up on inferior competition while cashing checks....something tells me that the horse needed some confidence building races... now how will he do when he comes neck and neck with a Improbable or War of Will at the 1/8th pole?
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Or he could have been underrated or improved with maturity.
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05-12-2019, 11:27 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
He either wins or he is nowhere. He is never close in the races he loses that it shows. No he does not need the lead, but he has been running against such inferior horses that his final speed figures will be much lower here with the step up in class, plus the longer distance.
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Two poor races. One on yielding turf in Sept and one almost a year ago. Has had 6 straight big wins since.
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05-12-2019, 11:40 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
He either wins or he is nowhere. He is never close in the races he loses that it shows. No he does not need the lead, but he has been running against such inferior horses that his final speed figures will be much lower here with the step up in class, plus the longer distance.
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2 year old form is irrelevant, your other analysis may be correct though. Maybe he’s not that good.
But I disagree mightily with all or nothing
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Last edited by Fightingirish51195; 05-12-2019 at 11:41 AM.
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05-12-2019, 11:56 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195
2 year old form is irrelevant, your other analysis may be correct though. Maybe he’s not that good.
But I disagree mightily with all or nothing
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Even if he runs his best race, he is still not in the top 4 if the others run their best race. He needs something bad to happen to some of the others or them to throw in a clunker, which happens all the time, even at the highest level.
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You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
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05-12-2019, 12:15 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
He either wins or he is nowhere. He is never close in the races he loses that it shows. No he does not need the lead, but he has been running against such inferior horses that his final speed figures will be much lower here with the step up in class, plus the longer distance.
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horse's speed figures do no always go down when they rise in class except in the case where they are unable to contest a faster pace. That can only be assessed on a case by case basis.
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05-12-2019, 12:30 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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I think he is fools gold.
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05-13-2019, 10:27 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
I think he is fools gold.
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I'm skeptical but he looks better than Diamond King at this time last year. Mining ran a 37.15 final 3/8th in his 9F prep in a race run not terribly different than the FL Derby. His Brsnet and Equibase figures fit. Can't really complain about the pedigree. Not a toss in my book.
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05-13-2019, 11:12 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
I'm skeptical but he looks better than Diamond King at this time last year. Mining ran a 37.15 final 3/8th in his 9F prep in a race run not terribly different than the FL Derby. His Brsnet and Equibase figures fit. Can't really complain about the pedigree. Not a toss in my book.
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I dont think he is a toss, but i dont see him winning the race and i think he will be way over bet.
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05-15-2019, 09:57 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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i think you really have to like the horse a little.
considering the alternatives and also how low improbable and wow are going to be.
but it does seem like many of these horses would clean up in those 100k races as well.......but this tesio/preakness version seems much better than usual
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05-15-2019, 12:15 PM
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#26
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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3rd or 4th choice is poor value on this horse.
I'll 'reluctantly include' this guy, if I have a strong enough opinion about Improbable or War of Will.
Looking like a tough betting race for me, but I should do better in the multi's and/or deeper verticals
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05-15-2019, 03:36 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
3rd or 4th choice is poor value on this horse.
I'll 'reluctantly include' this guy, if I have a strong enough opinion about Improbable or War of Will.
Looking like a tough betting race for me, but I should do better in the multi's and/or deeper verticals
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looks like there will be depressed odds across the board for almost every horse.
always looks pretty fast. i see joevia and grey magician in those 100k races..so the comp could be a smidge better than normal....plus he's destroyed every field by open lengths
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05-16-2019, 12:39 AM
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#28
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Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 684
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The vintage of those wins and figures compare pretty favorably. But increasingly stunted in class more recently. Hard to see that as a favorable tactic. Not compelling as fourth choice at single-digit odds. I agree the local action will anchor those odds down, too.
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05-16-2019, 01:15 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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Easy carry.
This is a nice horse.
A definite win threat.
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05-16-2019, 03:17 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Someday Silent
The doubts people have about Alwaysmining and his competition sound awfully similar to what was being said about Maximum Security prior to Florida and Kentucky Derbies.
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Yeah, well MS finished 17th.
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