Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-22-2019, 10:31 PM   #16
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
the wood hasn't been strong in anything. i think i pointed this out last year or the year before. you're looking @ around 15 yrs since the last wood horse hit the board. during that time they've had multiple runners each year.

obv not every year they went with 3 or more in the derby, but if you bet on any of these horses in the KD you lost.

2018 Vino Russo Enticed Restoring Hope 9
2017 Irish War Cry Battalion Runner Cloud Computing 8
2016 Outwork Trojan Nation Adventist 8
2015 Frosted Tencendur El Kabeir 7
2014 Wicked Strong Samraat Social Inclusion 10
2013 Verrazano Normandy Invasion Vyjack 9
2012 Gemologist Alpha Teeth of the Dog 8
2011 Toby's Corner Arthur's Tale Uncle Mo 10
2010 Eskendereya Jackson Bend Awesome Act 6
2009 I Want Revenge West Side Bernie Just a Coincidence 8
2008 Tale of Ekati War Pass Court Vision 9
2007 Nobiz Like Shobiz Sightseeing Any Given Saturday 6
2006 Bob and John Jazil Keyed Entry 9
2005 Bellamy Road Survivalist Scrappy T 7
2004 Tapit Master David Eddington 11
I think I had a few of those
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2019, 05:59 AM   #17
PowerUpPaynter
Registered User
 
PowerUpPaynter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
the wood hasn't been strong in anything. i think i pointed this out last year or the year before. you're looking @ around 15 yrs since the last wood horse hit the board. during that time they've had multiple runners each year.

obv not every year they went with 3 or more in the derby, but if you bet on any of these horses in the KD you lost.

2018 Vino Russo Enticed Restoring Hope 9
2017 Irish War Cry Battalion Runner Cloud Computing 8
2016 Outwork Trojan Nation Adventist 8
2015 Frosted Tencendur El Kabeir 7
2014 Wicked Strong Samraat Social Inclusion 10
2013 Verrazano Normandy Invasion Vyjack 9
2012 Gemologist Alpha Teeth of the Dog 8
2011 Toby's Corner Arthur's Tale Uncle Mo 10
2010 Eskendereya Jackson Bend Awesome Act 6
2009 I Want Revenge West Side Bernie Just a Coincidence 8
2008 Tale of Ekati War Pass Court Vision 9
2007 Nobiz Like Shobiz Sightseeing Any Given Saturday 6
2006 Bob and John Jazil Keyed Entry 9
2005 Bellamy Road Survivalist Scrappy T 7
2004 Tapit Master David Eddington 11
since the pts system a wood horse has rounded out the super 50% of the time... The Bluegrass has been horrible at producing just about anything... I dont think you can knock a race tho every year its all individual... its just kinda pot luck. To say they cant do this because they raced in that race is pretty foolish.
PowerUpPaynter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2019, 05:45 PM   #18
boys at tosconova
Registered User
 
boys at tosconova's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
since the pts system a wood horse has rounded out the super 50% of the time... The Bluegrass has been horrible at producing just about anything... I dont think you can knock a race tho every year its all individual... its just kinda pot luck. To say they cant do this because they raced in that race is pretty foolish.

c'mon..15 years and over 30 wood horses and none hit the board. and you want to extrapolate data to say you can't knock how bad the wood has been.
boys at tosconova is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2019, 06:03 PM   #19
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
c'mon..15 years and over 30 wood horses and none hit the board. and you want to extrapolate data to say you can't knock how bad the wood has been.
Agree with the caveat there's always a potential exception. Storm Cat sire line stunk too then Justify came along.

I'd think the best horses would compete in the G1 preps. They are G1 for a reason and also look better on the resume when it comes to stud fees.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2019, 07:16 PM   #20
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
I think I had a few of those
I'm sure we all did wager a few of these.

I can't fault Teeth of the Dog, I made out very well on him on a single that year he was in the Wood. And Jackson Bend, well that was one nice little racehorse, and if you stuck by him thru his career, you made $$. He's still one of my very favorite blue collar real deal race horses.

I think I disliked Vino Rosso the most though, looking thru all those on the list.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2019, 07:19 PM   #21
boys at tosconova
Registered User
 
boys at tosconova's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
He doesn't come home that fast, at least on the raw clock. There are very few Derby winners that posted his final 3/8th or 1/8th. He hasn't really been flattered by anyone he beat. In my opinion, Brisnet has historically inflated Wood figures. The 106 Equibase figure is decent but a few points below a few other contenders. Further, I don't think he gets that great of a pace setup for his style. Last, he may have been getting tired at the tail end of the Wood and a cranky steward could have dinged him for Tax evasion.
i see what you're saying to a degree...but it's somewhat hard dismissing accomplishments and leaving him out imo, and it's also hard to really slam or nit pick as well.

the tb derby has been a gr8 prep recently. and it was a fast race once again.

i would have liked to have seen him blow by and open up on tax but he didn't....and i'm not really in the tax camp, nor will i play him just because i play tacitus....but for that reason alone how bullish can i really be on tacitus.

if he draws outside he might really be toast or just become a closer trying to reach, which he might be regardless...lol
boys at tosconova is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2019, 07:22 PM   #22
boys at tosconova
Registered User
 
boys at tosconova's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow View Post

I think I disliked Vino Rosso the most though, looking thru all those on the list.
the horse had no chance...and lol @ haskin and others picking him.

this wood list had big time money burners from 2012 to present. i mean huge $$$ losses.
boys at tosconova is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2019, 07:22 PM   #23
PowerUpPaynter
Registered User
 
PowerUpPaynter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
c'mon..15 years and over 30 wood horses and none hit the board. and you want to extrapolate data to say you can't knock how bad the wood has been.
wood was hot at least the 5 years before that... A lot of those Wood fields of the past 15 years were just terrible.... and get this a unraced at 2 horse hadnt won the derby in 136 years then one won the Triple Crown. Every year stands on its own. by the way, im not saying Tacitus is my pick... but i do like him and Tax and even a little Haikal as horses ill use in my super tix.
PowerUpPaynter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2019, 12:03 AM   #24
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Wood has really been hit hard by the Florida Derby date move, to some extents the Blue Grass has as well.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2019, 12:58 AM   #25
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Wood has really been hit hard by the Florida Derby date move, to some extents the Blue Grass has as well.
I think the fall of the Wood can be attributed to a number of factors, but the greatest by far has been the rise of the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Arkansas Derby as being THE major final preps for the Derby.

The numbers over the last 15 years speak for themselves.

Since Funny Cide in 2003, the Kentucky Derby winner's final prep has been at:
Florida Derby: 5 times
Santa Anita Derby: 4 times
Arkansas Derby: 3 times
All others: 3 times (Sunland-Mine that Bird, Spiral-Animal Kingdom, Blue Grass-Steet Sense)

As for ITM horses:
Arkansas Derby: 10 times
Santa Anita Derby: 9 times
Florida Derby: 7 times
Blue Grass: 7 times
Louisiana Derby: 5 times
Spiral/Sunland/Illinois: 2 times each
Other: 1 time (8 Belles)

Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 04-24-2019 at 12:59 AM.
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2019, 01:20 AM   #26
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
the wood hasn't been strong in anything. i think i pointed this out last year or the year before. you're looking @ around 15 yrs since the last wood horse hit the board. during that time they've had multiple runners each year.

obv not every year they went with 3 or more in the derby, but if you bet on any of these horses in the KD you lost.

2018 Vino Russo Enticed Restoring Hope 9
2017 Irish War Cry Battalion Runner Cloud Computing 8
2016 Outwork Trojan Nation Adventist 8
2015 Frosted Tencendur El Kabeir 7
2014 Wicked Strong Samraat Social Inclusion 10
2013 Verrazano Normandy Invasion Vyjack 9
2012 Gemologist Alpha Teeth of the Dog 8
2011 Toby's Corner Arthur's Tale Uncle Mo 10
2010 Eskendereya Jackson Bend Awesome Act 6
2009 I Want Revenge West Side Bernie Just a Coincidence 8
2008 Tale of Ekati War Pass Court Vision 9
2007 Nobiz Like Shobiz Sightseeing Any Given Saturday 6
2006 Bob and John Jazil Keyed Entry 9
2005 Bellamy Road Survivalist Scrappy T 7
2004 Tapit Master David Eddington 11

That is a tough list of a lot of bad luck.

Eskendereya and I Want Revenge were going to be favorites in the Derby till injuries took them out.


Cloud Computing won the Preakness. Jazil won the Belmont. Tapit is easily argued as the best sire of the past decade, and maybe this century in America thus far. Frosted ran in the wrong year. Awesome Act and Any Given Saturday were solid older horses. With that said, there sure is a lot of meh in that list and a long list of 1 turn horses when it really gets down to it.
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2019, 09:11 AM   #27
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,529
I think the fall of the Wood is related to the spacing between the preps in general and the rise of the Arkansas derby.

The main preps used to be the Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass and Florida Derby.

The Arkansas Derby has risen and the Wood and Blue Grass have declined.

I think the damage to the Blue Grass was somewhat self inflicted. When KEE went synthetic the quality declined a lot and it hasn't made a full recovery.

The Wood used to draw some of the best horses that wintered in Florida and elsewhere in the east. But now that everyone wants more spacing, each of the very best horses is getting 1 or 2 fewer preps before the Derby. I think the quality of the Wood has suffered the most for that reason because without the shippers, the NY 3yo winter racing is not that good. A couple come, but not as many of the very best ones as before .

That could all change though. All it might take is for 1 or 2 to win and perceptions might change.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 04-24-2019 at 09:13 AM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2019, 09:38 AM   #28
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think the fall of the Wood is related to the spacing between the preps in general and the rise of the Arkansas derby.

The main preps used to be the Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass and Florida Derby.

The Arkansas Derby has risen and the Wood and Blue Grass have declined.

I think the damage to the Blue Grass was somewhat self inflicted. When KEE went synthetic the quality declined a lot and it hasn't made a full recovery.

The Wood used to draw some of the best horses that wintered in Florida and elsewhere in the east. But now that everyone wants more spacing, each of the very best horses is getting 1 or 2 fewer preps before the Derby. I think the quality of the Wood has suffered the most for that reason because without the shippers, the NY 3yo winter racing is not that good. A couple come, but not as many of the very best ones as before .

That could all change though. All it might take is for 1 or 2 to win and perceptions might change.
I totally agree, great points. The Ny comparison and Keeneland has never come back from the synth years. On the east coast the best horses have showed up at the FLA Derby consistently for years now. An indication that this is true again . Horses that couldn’t cut it in the FOY shipped to Keeneland and ran like gang busters. I’m taking a long look at Maximum Security and Shugs horse. Because GP has been a good run up to this race. And Shug has gone this route before.
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-24-2019, 10:11 AM   #29
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
i see what you're saying to a degree...but it's somewhat hard dismissing accomplishments and leaving him out imo, and it's also hard to really slam or nit pick as well.

the tb derby has been a gr8 prep recently. and it was a fast race once again.

i would have liked to have seen him blow by and open up on tax but he didn't....and i'm not really in the tax camp, nor will i play him just because i play tacitus....but for that reason alone how bullish can i really be on tacitus.

if he draws outside he might really be toast or just become a closer trying to reach, which he might be regardless...lol
Certainly he's the one horse outside of the Florida, Santa Anita, or Ark Derbies giving me the most pause... but I've seen this Tampa to Wood or Tampa to Blue Grass gambit before. Vino Rosso, Tapwrit, Carpe Diem, Verrazano, etc. Street Sense was the only horse to pull off the Tampa to BG/Wood to Derby win. Super Saver went to the Ark and nothing else wore roses from the event.

I guess when there are 20 horses to filter through in what appears to be a more even field than the previous several years, a handicapper might have to be a little nitpicky to narrow his options. Pending the draw, I already like Game Winner, Omaha, Maximum Security, and possibly Improbable for the top slot. That's already expensive gimmicks without throwing another up there.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-26-2019, 01:59 PM   #30
chiguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 265
After watching his videos this horse is my pick until at least post positions are drawn. For a horse making his 4th start, the Wood was pretty impressive. He had a lot of trouble on the first term, bounced around pretty good. He had his back end taken out about 100 yards out of the gate and crowded and steadied going into the first turn. He was a bit green late but was pulling away. I don't think he is reliant on pace. He can sit close or come from off it. Breeding is other worldly, mother was a beast, can run all day. I toss out the issue of the Wood not producing much in recent history. Hell we had an unraced at 2 horse win the triple crown last year. I see this guy hitting the lead at the 3/16 pole and drawing away.
chiguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:45 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.