Tax - Page 3 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PhantomOnTour · 04-28-2019, 03:23 PM

Taking my first serious look at the field today, and Tax looks pretty good. His E2 numbers and final figs say he can be right there throughout.

clicknow · 04-28-2019, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

DP is sire-only numbers without the dam taken into account?

Roman's theory is based on influential sires --- both their achievements on the track but the ability of their progeny. The dominant sires are Chef-de-Races.
Brisnet: Dosage is a system that attempts to predict the distance potential of
horses based on certain sires in the first four generations of their
pedigrees.

Bill Lathrop did for the mare side what roman did for the sire side. This site is no longer active but you can read what he did here and he wrote a book on it, but the book is out of print so the few people who have one are ahead of game as they will have a fresher list of the conduits / influences from female side using speed/stamina indexes and triads. Many of my pedigree pals still do thse but it is very time consuming to click thru all the conduits and do all the numbers.
https://dimarres.wixsite.com/modern-conduit-mares

clicknow · 04-28-2019, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

one of his big things was that breeding was so speed dominant in the modern era (90s on up) that it led to a faulty understanding of what the DI was.

In N.A.
Not in europe

I never used his system as a stand a lone w/out the mares side, however, his performance figures were absolutely golden.

LemonSoupKid · 05-01-2019, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clicknow

In N.A.
Not in europe

I never used his system as a stand a lone w/out the mares side, however, his performance figures were absolutely golden.

Yes and Yes.

I loved Steve's PFs

MadVindication · 05-01-2019, 04:33 PM

Watching the Wood replay, I'm undecided whether Tax tired down the stretch or he just conceded when challenged. I'm thinking it's the latter. Anyone have an opinion?

clicknow · 05-01-2019, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadVindication

Watching the Wood replay, I'm undecided whether Tax tired down the stretch or he just conceded when challenged. I'm thinking it's the latter. Anyone have an opinion?

https://youtu.be/tl6sphb_0Tk?t=98

My opinion won't be popular but I'll give it. Tacitus was bearing inward on Tax so much there at the end, I thought he was going to knock Tax right into the rail.
If anything, to me, that speaks to a horse who is getting leg weary and is drifting. If the jockey was doing that "on purpose" then that should have been called out so I'm gonna assume it was Tacitus who was drifting in like that.
I'm not the only one who saw this and interpretted it like that. Some were even surprised the stewards did not get involved.

This was Tacitus' first race at 1-1/8.

Tax had already run 2 races at 1-1/8th and ran ITM. And ran ITM again here. So the idea of him being the leg weary one is preposterous to me.

boys at tosconova · 05-01-2019, 11:06 PM

tax had a golden trip in the wood.....and if tacitus can go by him in the stretch why can't any or all of bafferts horses as well?..he won't get away that clean in the derby as well

Boris · 05-01-2019, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadVindication

Watching the Wood replay, I'm undecided whether Tax tired down the stretch or he just conceded when challenged. I'm thinking it's the latter. Anyone have an opinion?

This Gargan talking about the stretch run.

clicknow · 05-02-2019, 01:10 AM

I like both Tacitus and Tax, and somewhat equally, but for completely different reasons, as they are completely at opposite ends of the spectrum really. That is clear just looking at their pedigrees. In the Wood only 3 horses did any running so for me, Tacitus beat 2 horses in the Wood, and one of them he didn't beat by a whole lot. What I did notice is Tax's high Bris speed rating at the age of 2, it was the highest of any horse on the trail at the time, and that was when he LOST. 40% win 100% ITM ------ I'm okay with Tax. Tacitus might be a better pick for the Derby esp. if it rains + Mott factor. I might use him somewhere.

MadVindication · 05-02-2019, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clicknow

My opinion won't be popular but I'll give it. Tacitus was bearing inward on Tax so much there at the end, I thought he was going to knock Tax right into the rail.
If anything, to me, that speaks to a horse who is getting leg weary and is drifting. If the jockey was doing that "on purpose" then that should have been called out so I'm gonna assume it was Tacitus who was drifting in like that.
I'm not the only one who saw this and interpretted it like that. Some were even surprised the stewards did not get involved.

This was Tacitus' first race at 1-1/8.

Tax had already run 2 races at 1-1/8th and ran ITM. And ran ITM again here. So the idea of him being the leg weary one is preposterous to me.

That's what it looks like. Tacitus didn't stay in his lane.

And that interview with Tax trainer, says he just wanted to send him out and avoid trouble and Tax got bumped around early and he just had enough by the end.

So yeah I'm partly thinking there's evidence Tax lacked some gumption needed for a race like the derby but despite being run down he held well. He didn't look tired so I think this is a horse with stamina for the race at least. And considering what you say about his bris fig and that he ran well in the longest prep routes bodes well. No reason to leave him out of a super.

Tacitus does have that long stride, which helps. But maybe that's something that can hide whether he does have that stamina capability, regardless if it's in his pedigree or no.

Aerocraft67 · 05-03-2019, 05:18 PM

Taking another look at this one if the odds hold. I suspect my other picks (

,

) get beat down.

BlueChip@DRF · 05-03-2019, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Taking another look at this one if the odds hold. I suspect my other picks (

,

) get beat down.

getting bet down, both at 5/1

is not getting any love, drifting upwards at 23/1

clicknow · 05-04-2019, 03:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadVindication

That's what it looks like. Tacitus didn't stay in his lane.

I don't like horses who can't run straight. I got burned by that Classic Empire who ran 4th in Derby who couldn't run straight in Arkansas. If I were using either of these, that's where I'm putting them.

Tom · 05-04-2019, 01:57 PM

Tax at 35-1 is a must bet something horse.

MadVindication · 05-04-2019, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clicknow

I don't like horses who can't run straight. I got burned by that Classic Empire who ran 4th in Derby who couldn't run straight in Arkansas. If I were using either of these, that's where I'm putting them.

Yeah that's a point against Tacitus. Moreso I'm conflicted about him due to whether he'll have room to make his move, and how much ground he may lose to do it. But J Ortiz is sharp at least. Meh.

Tax will prob be fighting to keep the 3/4 lane.

I'm guessing if Vekoma is on the lead he'll be passed by someone on the inside on second turn. Passed for good.