Tax

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Pat
My complements to your derby chart ty

your welcome!

[MNslappy]

Tax is tied for the top fig on the TimeForm chart.

[tjfla]

Had him as a TOSS but after looking over everything he has a good chance to hit the board especially if they take him back a little.



Question is will they? Take him back to the Tacitus/Game Winner area instead of the Improbable/Roadster press area and let him get first run. I dont think he wins but has enough stamina.Could be like Wood!!

[señorclipclop]

Tax has a similar cross to Instilled Regard, that's his ceiling, imo for the Derby. Belmont is a different story.

Looking through previous years PPs, Wood Memorial BRIS ratings are consistently inflated. In the era of the points system, 5 of the last 6 winners got a 100+ and managed two 4th place finishes.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

Tax has a similar cross to Instilled Regard, that's his ceiling, imo for the Derby. Belmont is a different story.

Looking through previous years PPs, Wood Memorial BRIS ratings are consistently inflated. In the era of the points system, 5 of the last 6 winners got a 100+ and managed two 4th place finishes.

I have him in my top 10 in that topic here, on 4/17, so hope he does something good.
I haven't changed my top 10 yet but it was over 3 weeks out when most of us posted to that topic.
I went back and looked at my WIN picks and I still like them so far....

[BlueChip@DRF]

I just watched a replay of the Wood. Tax is a sh*t-starter. Look when they enter the first turn.

[f2tornado]

Horse is consistent however, like Tacitus, hasn't really been flattered. Survived a hotter pace in the Wood and it would not surprise to see him hold up for a share. I don't think he's fast enough to win and I'm leery of using in the exacta against classier horses. I might use on bottom of tri or super but the gut says this guy is about a 7th place runner.

[Blenheim]

'Push-Button' Tax has Alavardo Excited for Third Derby Mount

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's got a classic heavy dosage profile
Tax DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56 CD = 0.31.

That's 23 classic points and one solid point. The DI and CD are closer to what you would see with the average 12F winner versus a Derby winner. They have not won the Derby recently...

Justify DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
Always Dreaming DP = 3-5-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.92
Nyquist DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00
American Pharoah DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88

However, we're not that far off from...

Big Brown DP = 4-7-23-2-0 (36) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.36
Funny Cide DP = 7-2-11-3-1 (24) DI = 1.53 CD = 0.46
Monarchos DP = 2-2-13-1-0 (18) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.28
Silver Charm DP = 3-5-17-5-0 (30) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

* He's a female family 1-x and those have won six Derby contests. Family 1 in general has been the most dominant in absolute wins however I don't know the specific impact value.

* He's Buckpasser-x

* He's conditioned having run in three consecutive 9F contests.

* He hits very high on the TimeformUS rating but less impressive with the actual 3/8 time.

Big negative in my opinion - Junior Alvarado.
Second arguably less meaningful negative - Nothing has won out of the Wood in a long time.
Another less meaningful negative - Has not really been flattered by any of his opponents.

He's probably worth a play in the gimmicks and a logical win bet if you're wanting to test your luck with a longer price. I regrettably mostly missed the boat playing Pool 4 gimmicks using solid 19-1 odds on the 24-All which will include Tax, the Japanese and Euro horses, and perhaps one or two others pending results of Ark and Lexington.

You made a lot of good points and I already liked this horse. His sire and dam's sire AWDs are stellar.
However, I don't think his campaign has been condusive to a proper Derby Trail campaign, do you? It's a fitness question for me. 1 race every 2 months. Seems like a horse who gets a lot of time off. Fitness wins ky derby

What do you guys think? this is a big sticking point for me

[Immortal6]

Originally Posted by clicknow

You made a lot of good points and I already liked this horse. His sire and dam's sire AWDs are stellar.
However, I don't think his campaign has been condusive to a proper Derby Trail campaign, do you? It's a fitness question for me. 1 race every 2 months. Seems like a horse who gets a lot of time off. Fitness wins ky derby

What do you guys think? this is a big sticking point for me

He’s ran 9F three races in a row in forward position over an imo tiring track at Aqueduct. Fitness should be no concern for this horse, in fact I think he would have to be about the most conditioned horse for the distance.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's got a classic heavy dosage profile
Tax DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56 CD = 0.31.

That's 23 classic points and one solid point. The DI and CD are closer to what you would see with the average 12F winner versus a Derby winner. They have not won the Derby recently...

Justify DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
Always Dreaming DP = 3-5-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.92
Nyquist DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00
American Pharoah DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88

However, we're not that far off from...

Big Brown DP = 4-7-23-2-0 (36) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.36
Funny Cide DP = 7-2-11-3-1 (24) DI = 1.53 CD = 0.46
Monarchos DP = 2-2-13-1-0 (18) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.28
Silver Charm DP = 3-5-17-5-0 (30) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

I forgot the origin of this but there was some quick formula to see which side the DP is more weighted on.

(B+I)-(C+S+P)

0= balanced
+1 and greater is geared towards speed
-1 and lesser is geared towards stamina

Justify*** DP = 5-6-8-1-0 +2
Always Dreaming DP = 3-5-4-0-0 +4
Nyquist DP = 1-2-1-0-0 +2
American Pharoah*** DP = 2-3-3-0-0 +2

Big Brown DP = 4-7-23-2-0 -14
Funny Cide DP = 7-2-11-3-1 -7
Monarchos DP = 2-2-13-1-0 -10
Silver Charm DP = 3-5-17-5-0 -14


Secretariat*** DP = 20-14-7-9-0 +18
Affirmed*** DP = 8-6-26-0-0 -14

So I hope this adds to the confusion.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

I forgot the origin of this but there was some quick formula to see which side the DP is more weighted on.

(B+I)-(C+S+P)

Doing sire side alone w/out mare's entire profile doesn't tell you what you really need to know. Sometimes horses lacking stamina will get it dropped on them by mare's profile; sometimes horses lacking speed will have speed dropped on them by mare's side, damsire, etc. This was pretty easy when steve roman and bill lathrop were both doing their parts, both are retired now.
I always felt that one of the reasons sire side dosage was phooed phooed by so many was because they didn't know how, and didn't bother, to do the female side of things with conduit mare profiles..... which is sort of a fatal error if you ask me and certainly won't give you any kind of true picture if you don't..

[boys at tosconova]

ask yourself this.

would anybody be surprised to see horse go around the track 6th > 8th and race evenly the entire way

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

I forgot the origin of this but there was some quick formula to see which side the DP is more weighted on.

(B+I)-(C+S+P)

0= balanced
+1 and greater is geared towards speed
-1 and lesser is geared towards stamina

Justify*** DP = 5-6-8-1-0 +2
Always Dreaming DP = 3-5-4-0-0 +4
Nyquist DP = 1-2-1-0-0 +2
American Pharoah*** DP = 2-3-3-0-0 +2

Big Brown DP = 4-7-23-2-0 -14
Funny Cide DP = 7-2-11-3-1 -7
Monarchos DP = 2-2-13-1-0 -10
Silver Charm DP = 3-5-17-5-0 -14


Secretariat*** DP = 20-14-7-9-0 +18
Affirmed*** DP = 8-6-26-0-0 -14

So I hope this adds to the confusion.

You're close, but what you are referring to is called CD (Center of Distribution).

I spoke with Roman about a few things over the last 15 years, and one of his big things was that breeding was so speed dominant in the modern era (90s on up) that it led to a faulty understanding of what the DI was. I'll reflect what he said and charted here: Classic performances, the really great ones, were when the DI was lower than 4, which is why the cutoff was "set" there for a long while. I think in the last 15 years low dosage runners were so uncommon, obviously they couldn't come out as manifest in such a small sample size and with a weird, 20 horse race since there are so many inputs to success on a single Kentucky Derby scenario. Nevertheless, the data clearly showed that the all time great performances in the Derby were related to lower DI horses.

[BlueChip@DRF]

DP is sire-only numbers without the dam taken into account?