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Old 05-01-2019, 11:59 AM   #46
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TFUS Pace Projector for Derby. I know that it may be a lot to ask CJ, but, (caveat) if you don't mind, can you please share the Pace Projector for this year's Derby with us? I am dying to see what you have and what it may look like with this humongous field for the Derby.
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Old 05-01-2019, 12:14 PM   #47
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Thank you!!!!!!
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Old 05-01-2019, 12:30 PM   #48
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Thanks a million times CJ! You are "The Bomb" sir.

Have a fantastic Derby Weekend.
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Old 05-01-2019, 06:11 PM   #49
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Thank you, CJ.
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Old 05-05-2019, 12:34 PM   #50
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Chart, running lines in past performance style.

Last edited by cj; 05-05-2019 at 01:50 PM.
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Old 05-05-2019, 01:47 PM   #51
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:32 PM   #52
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You dont see many blue coded fractions in the kentucky derby. strange race.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:37 PM   #53
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You dont see many blue coded fractions in the kentucky derby. strange race.
Very, and certainly led to the bunching up at the point where all the trouble occurred.
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Old 05-06-2019, 05:51 PM   #54
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Looking at the 6 fur, 1 mile and finish both Country House and Code of Honor each lost ground, albeit by somewhat slim margins.

Tacitus gain lengths from the mile point on after losing a few to the mile marker. Probably a lot had to do with the field bunching up at that point, I understand. Improbable had a interesting run too gaining lengths to mile mark and losing ground late.

Game Winner gained lengths from the mile point on too -- looks like a strong Preakness play for me at this early moment.

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Old 05-06-2019, 06:19 PM   #55
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This is a very good podcast that goes through the trip of every single horse in the Derby. It is the latest episode, #31, currently at the top.

https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/...-board-podcast
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Old 05-06-2019, 09:11 PM   #56
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This is a very good podcast that goes through the trip of every single horse in the Derby. It is the latest episode, #31, currently at the top.

https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/...-board-podcast
Thanks cj for s very informative podcast. I see both Serling and Aragona think that Game Winner might have been best and had to overcome a world of trouble and still finished strongly in 24 and change.

I'm glad they made the point that Saez's foul did not have to be intentional to merit a DQ. If so it should earn him a fine and days. I think Max spooked out on the turn and then realizing that he was fouling horses Saez overcorrected in bringing him back in, brushing Code of Honor. In any case, still a bad foul.

I also like what Serling said about the importance of enforcing the rules in the big races like the Derby. Are we going to only enforce the rules in Maiden Claimers? The big races should set the standard and should be the place the rules are enforced most diligently.
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Old 05-19-2019, 10:16 AM   #57
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I also like what Serling said about the importance of enforcing the rules in the big races like the Derby
One could take the opposite view as well - that the stewards would not have taken the time to analyse a cheap maiden claiming race in slow motion for 20 minutes like they did the derby.

I'm still torn over the disqualification. But if they are going to do things "by the book" then they need to do so for the entire race, not just the final turn. If they did there would be a lot more disqualifications. For safety reasons I'm also in favor of limiting Derby starters to the same # as the breeders cup.
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Old 05-19-2019, 06:22 PM   #58
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Updated with the Preakness:

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Old 05-20-2019, 08:51 AM   #59
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Very impressive figure for War of Will. Guess this shows he was on the way to a big race in the Derby before he was fouled.
Interesting time of year when these horses truly become 3YOs, start to peak with their figures and catch up with their more precocious classmates.
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:07 AM   #60
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One could take the opposite view as well - that the stewards would not have taken the time to analyse a cheap maiden claiming race in slow motion for 20 minutes like they did the derby.

I'm still torn over the disqualification. But if they are going to do things "by the book" then they need to do so for the entire race, not just the final turn. If they did there would be a lot more disqualifications. For safety reasons I'm also in favor of limiting Derby starters to the same # as the breeders cup.
I don't see how the fact that stewards should take more time to analyse a bigger more difficult race is in any opposite to strictly enforcing the rules in big races like the Derby.
Totally agree the field is dangerously too big in the Derby.
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