Friday BigM R6

[Ray2000]

Interesting numbers in your thread willphorse, keep up the good work

I'd like to see what you get for R6 at the Big M tonight.

My ft/sec for the field is attached and #3 Stonebridge Pearl (12/1 ML) looks 2nd best in the brush.

Derick Giwner says she'll be overbet but I like her prospects here

Good Luck

[willphorse]

Thank you Ray. Your posts are what have interested me in trying to develop something!


Here is a SNAPSHOT for R6 at The Big M tonight.


R6.png

Class Shows 4-7-9-6-1.

I think you'd have to use 3 Stonebridge Pearl. I'll be honest, I am not a huge fan that after that big brush, she is on a constant decline in velocity.

I like late moves 4-6-7-10. I think 10 John's One Desire will most likely be 10th off the car and although is constantly moving forward, her move is not powerful enough in my eyes to overcome that start.

In my opinion here Ray, I would go 7-4-6-3.

[Ray2000]

I have her speeds in the quarters as

45.11 48.91 47.26 46.87

slightly lower to 1/4, slightly faster to the 1/2 but pretty close to your numbers
We must be making similar adjustments.

I'm thinking this will be a slow pace so I'm going with key 3 / 716

Good Luck...

[willphorse]

Very close! Total Energy race used was Last Race.
Fractions I have for Stonebridge Pearl are

43.29052632
48.13109489
46.37166667
46.03215479


Horse 3.png

Here is the graph for the past 4 races for Stonebridge Pearl. She has a very nice brush. Just has to be utilized and timed properly by Corey.


My adjustments are different depending on track size, PP and cover.

Best of Luck today Ray!!!

[willphorse]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

I have her speeds in the quarters as

45.11 48.91 47.26 46.87

slightly lower to 1/4, slightly faster to the 1/2 but pretty close to your numbers
We must be making similar adjustments.

I'm thinking this will be a slow pace so I'm going with key 3 / 716

Good Luck...

Looks as though you followed Sartin's Ft/S model perfectly. I use a bit futher for each length behind (He uses 10 ft / length) to take into consideration sulky and driver leaning back. I also adjust for track size because going around a turn, especially parked, is further than the 1320 foot 1/4 mile distance. I will also make a small adjustment for PP for 1st 1/4 velocity, as the 10 hole horse must travel further to get to the rail than the 2. I use Pythagorean Theorem for that adjustment, but again, very minute adjustment.

You are a brilliant mind Ray, and I am really looking forward to future dialogue on this subject! I will say that this has become a great tool to be utilized with handicapping the races. Thoroughbred's have many tools available including Pedigree, Pace Rating, Quirin Speed Points, Workout Ratings, etc. It is time for Harness Racing to have something that can help analyze a race more statistically and scientifically!!

Thank you Ray!

[EdZone]

I like 7/10/3/4 Fox Valley Hermia (7-2)

[Ray2000]

EdZone
That 10 was the last one I tossed, . I'll put her back on my Exacta play


willp


I use a 0.6 seconds reduction in quarter time if racing 1st over during the Quarter or 0.9 secs if double wide.
1 length gained or lost, is equivalent to 0.2 second in my calcs


One other thought


If you try to fine tune speed or speed patterns to improve a system's Win %, you'll end up closer and closer to the favorite and that's a lost cause.

Couple it with class ratings for the horses and watch for a high speed number with a low class number. (Stepping UP in class)
Nuggets can be found that way.

[willphorse]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

EdZone
That 10 was the last one I tossed, . I'll put her back on my Exacta play


willp


I use a 0.6 seconds reduction in quarter time if racing 1st over during the Quarter or 0.9 secs if double wide.
1 length gained or lost, is equivalent to 0.2 second in my calcs


One other thought


If you try to fine tune speed or speed patterns to improve a system's Win %, you'll end up closer and closer to the favorite and that's a lost cause.

Couple it with class ratings for the horses and watch for a high speed number with a low class number. (Stepping UP in class)
Nuggets can be found that way.

Thank you for that info Ray! Will keep an eye on it.

Only way to make money in this game is to be right when the public is wrong lol

[willphorse]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

EdZone
That 10 was the last one I tossed, . I'll put her back on my Exacta play


willp


I use a 0.6 seconds reduction in quarter time if racing 1st over during the Quarter or 0.9 secs if double wide.
1 length gained or lost, is equivalent to 0.2 second in my calcs


One other thought


If you try to fine tune speed or speed patterns to improve a system's Win %, you'll end up closer and closer to the favorite and that's a lost cause.

Couple it with class ratings for the horses and watch for a high speed number with a low class number. (Stepping UP in class)
Nuggets can be found that way.

Ray, Do you adjust for track to track due to likelihood of higher velocities in the straightaways compared to turns? Had trouble initially comparing horses shipping from 1 mile track to 1/2 mile.

[Ray2000]

I adjust for track speed ratings from track to track and the Daily Track Variance but not on length of stretch.


Not using that last number has always bothered me.


Also a major component for speed and energy output is Wind speed and Wind direction. I actually tried compiling a database of results vs wind direction once using weather history but the local conditions didn't match NOAA close enough to mean anything.

[Ray2000]

Did not like that drive........

[willphorse]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Did not like that drive........

Agreed Ray! Thought for sure SBP was going to go first over!