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Old 10-18-2021, 08:46 AM   #1
Half Smoke
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beat the NFL spread

__________


as you can see from the image, statistician Mike Shackleford, who runs the Wizard of Vegas website documented about 2,100 games for road dogs and found them to be profitable by 2.57%

of course, that's not a high %______ not really anything to get excited about

however, in the image you can also see that the away pick was profitable by 13.25%_________but only 59 games were documented

even though it was only 59 games it led me to believe that if you limited your bets to games where the road dog got only 4 or fewer points the % might be healthier


so, I used the data from covers.com to calculate how this idea would do
I calculated every single game from the 2020 season where the road dog got 4 or fewer points

the results are as follows:


𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐭 𝟒 𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝟑𝟗 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟔𝟓 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟑𝟗-𝟐𝟔 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝟔𝟎% 𝐰𝐢𝐧 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞

𝐚𝐧 𝐑.𝐎.𝐈. 𝐨𝐟 𝟏𝟒.𝟓𝟓%


anybody that wants to double check my figures can do so at covers.com

when this season (2021) is over I will update this post with the results

I am not doing playoff games because of my personal belief that they carry more unpredictability







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Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 01-18-2022 at 12:08 AM.
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Old 10-18-2021, 12:03 PM   #2
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I think due to Covid protocols you have to toss out trends from 2020, especially on short samples.
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Old 10-18-2021, 12:29 PM   #3
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I think due to Covid protocols you have to toss out trends from 2020, especially on short samples.


maybe - but I can't think of any reason that traveling could have possibly benefitted road dogs

if anything, if would seem to hurt them more - since traveling during Covid was weird and stressful


when I feel energetic I'll tabulate a year before Covid


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Old 10-18-2021, 02:59 PM   #4
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i used to follow trends like this in baseball. i watched the numbers in baseball until the all-star break.. if there was a very strong trend like road team favorites, i would turn it around and bet all hometown dogs for the second half of the year. i had one very big year doing that with hometown dogs.

also in football, i had a great year betting on all AFC teams vs. the NFC.

i haven't been following things like this for a long time now.. maybe i will try it out in baseball next year.

naturally, the good part about sports is you are never betting against yourself like in horse racing. but it's the only thing good about sports betting. you need too many winners in that game.
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Old 10-18-2021, 04:11 PM   #5
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I have an Action Network PRO account and here is the best I have been following recently at the start of 2021 and back tested since '05

Baseball
Average AL Teams vs NL
Game Number the team's game number is between 30 and 162
Home / Visitor the team is the Home team
Team Win % the team's win percentage is between 47% and 54%
Opposing Conference the opposing team's conference is the NL
Conference the team's conference is the AL
Season Type the game is played during the Regular season
Record 504-296 Win % 63% ROI 11% +84.78u
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Old 10-18-2021, 04:39 PM   #6
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_________


2019 NFL regular season


road dogs who got 4 points or fewer


41-30-4__________57.7% winners__________not considering pushes


10.15%____R.O.I._________not considering pushes




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Last edited by Half Smoke; 10-18-2021 at 04:42 PM.
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Old 01-09-2022, 04:44 PM   #7
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__________


the road dogs who got 4 points or fewer for this season - 2021/2022 - had a very good year

I used the most common line from vegasinsider.com on the morning the day of the game



they went 34-21__________61.8% winners______________17.98 % R.O.I.


the 3 years combined_____________114-77________59.68 % winners__________13.93% R.O.I.

.

pushes not considered

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Old 09-05-2022, 04:42 AM   #8
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Quote:
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__________

the 3 years combined_____________114-77________59.68 % winners__________13.93% R.O.I.

.
pushes not considered

.

I believe that there is an excellent chance that a bet on the NFL regular season away underdogs who got 4 points or fewer will be profitable by a solid margin for the 4th year in a row

this year for the first time I will include any away picks in my tracking


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Old 09-05-2022, 08:42 AM   #9
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i can show you systems that have worked for 50 years that produce close to 53% winners as long as you get the very best point spread going for you at all times. if you miss games by half a point, you will turn out to be a loser.

the whole thing is a waste of time with the sports. even if you are good enough to get the right points every time, the margin of profit is so small that you need to be betting large amounts of money. now if you have that big money, why do you need to bet sports to begin with? i can bet no more than $600 per race and win about $30,000 for the year and keep my brain occupied and never get stressed out with losing big money. and that is going 100% into pari mutual pools.
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Old 09-05-2022, 10:39 AM   #10
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i can show you systems that have worked for 50 years that produce close to 53% winners as long as you get the very best point spread going for you at all times. if you miss games by half a point, you will turn out to be a loser.

the whole thing is a waste of time with the sports. even if you are good enough to get the right points every time, the margin of profit is so small that you need to be betting large amounts of money. now if you have that big money, why do you need to bet sports to begin with? i can bet no more than $600 per race and win about $30,000 for the year and keep my brain occupied and never get stressed out with losing big money. and that is going 100% into pari mutual pools.



I always considered 53% the break even point. I haven't been a hardcore NFL better for decades. I will make season bets and not bet single games or parlays till the play-offs.
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Old 09-05-2022, 11:03 AM   #11
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Quote:
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i can show you systems that have worked for 50 years that produce close to 53% winners as long as you get the very best point spread going for you at all times. if you miss games by half a point, you will turn out to be a loser.



if you have that big money, why do you need to bet sports to begin with?

the line I have used is from vegasinsider.com the morning the day of the game

I don't use the best line available

I use the most common line which is worse than the best line

if all or most of the books have different lines - I have averaged them

it would be pointless for me to do my tracking while using the best line available

it wouldn't be useful to everybody - everybody cannot get the best line




as to your point as to why bet all - I believe a great many don't bet because they believe it will dramatacilly affect their financial situation

I would have to make gigantic bets for that to happen and I wouldn't want to do that

I bet, and I believe many others do because it's a challenge to win

if I do win, even if it doesn't radically affect my financial situation it's something I have pride about - and I believe that's true with many others


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Old 01-12-2023, 06:18 AM   #12
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I believe that there is an excellent chance that a bet on the NFL regular season away underdogs who got 4 points or fewer will be profitable by a solid margin for the 4th year in a row

.

and they were profitable for the 4th year in a row - but only by a tiny margin - they went 45-40 winning 52.9%_____________kinna disappointing actually

they are still very solid for the 4 years combined:


159-117_________57.6% winners



pushes not considered



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Old 01-13-2023, 05:54 AM   #13
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______________


will be all over the BUCS +2.5 against the boys Monday night

bet against Brady at home in the playoffs________?________no can do

the boys were awful last week getting crushed by the awful Commanders


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