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09-16-2021, 01:19 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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First Call Leaders Relative to Field Size
Can someone post respective Impact Values on first call leaders broken down by field size and distance?
Dirt only.
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09-20-2021, 07:47 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Can someone post respective Impact Values on first call leaders broken down by field size and distance?
Dirt only.
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I think I once read that 78% of horses who win North American dirt sprints were never farther back than 3rd at any point in the race.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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09-20-2021, 10:50 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
I think I once read that 78% of horses who win North American dirt sprints were never farther back than 3rd at any point in the race.
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Yes. What I am looking for though, is the success rate of early leaders in relation to field size. And that's going to require a geek. Hope all is well, sir.
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09-20-2021, 12:04 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,290
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Mark,
I set my current database up to query and report stats based on position at the second call (not the first.)
FWIW, I based that decision on research I did many years ago that suggested at most distances (5.5f and up) position at the second call is more significant than the first.
If stats based on leader at the second call is something you're interested in seeing - let me know. Also let me know if you are looking for MNR only - or if you are looking for a wider range of tracks.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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09-20-2021, 02:41 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Mark,
I set my current database up to query and report stats based on position at the second call (not the first.)
FWIW, I based that decision on research I did many years ago that suggested at most distances (5.5f and up) position at the second call is more significant than the first.
If stats based on leader at the second call is something you're interested in seeing - let me know. Also let me know if you are looking for MNR only - or if you are looking for a wider range of tracks.
-jp
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all tracks, jeff. dirt only, and tx. was hoping you or dave would answer the bat signal...
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09-21-2021, 03:59 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
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Hi Mark,
I have attached a spreadsheet that shows for each dirt distance the likelihood that the first call leader would finish in each finishing position in relation to its natural odds. I think that is how impact values are done.
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09-21-2021, 05:50 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,290
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Link to a text file showing 105k starters that led at the second call last out - all thoroughbred dirt races in the US and Canada from Jan 01, 2018 current through Sep 19, 2021 - no attempt to break ties - and the data broken out by FieldSize and Distance:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/...s-09192021.txt
Avg Win Rate: 0.1978
Varies by FieldSize and Dist.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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09-21-2021, 06:29 PM
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#8
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,796
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Link to a text file showing 105k starters that led at the second call last out - all thoroughbred dirt races in the US and Canada from Jan 01, 2018 current through Sep 19, 2021 - no attempt to break ties - and the data broken out by FieldSize and Distance:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/...s-09192021.txt
Avg Win Rate: 0.1978
Varies by FieldSize and Dist.
-jp
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Jeff
Can you eliminate the horses that finished out of the money in their last race?
I used to have a UDM just like the above, except the horses had to be in the money in their last race……and it was good one…….if it’s not to hard to do…….
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09-22-2021, 04:01 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
Hi Mark,
I have attached a spreadsheet that shows for each dirt distance the likelihood that the first call leader would finish in each finishing position in relation to its natural odds. I think that is how impact values are done.
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Dude..you are always there with the goods..much appreciated..and in your debt
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09-22-2021, 04:02 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Link to a text file showing 105k starters that led at the second call last out - all thoroughbred dirt races in the US and Canada from Jan 01, 2018 current through Sep 19, 2021 - no attempt to break ties - and the data broken out by FieldSize and Distance:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/...s-09192021.txt
Avg Win Rate: 0.1978
Varies by FieldSize and Dist.
-jp
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much gratitude, jeff..guys like you are the main appeal of this place..
Last edited by mountainman; 09-22-2021 at 04:03 PM.
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09-23-2021, 01:04 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
Jeff
Can you eliminate the horses that finished out of the money in their last race?
I used to have a UDM just like the above, except the horses had to be in the money in their last race……and it was good one…….if it’s not to hard to do…….
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Hey Ralph,
I added stats for POSFINCALL (finish position last out) to the linked to text file.
Hint: You may need to hit the refresh button on your webbrowser to see them after clicking the link to the text file.
As you can see, POSFINCALL last out between 1 and 3 had a higher win pct than 4th and up - but didn't do much for ROI.
I posted some follow up thoughts about this in the private area of my message board.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Last edited by Jeff P; 09-23-2021 at 01:10 PM.
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09-23-2021, 01:07 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
much gratitude, jeff..guys like you are the main appeal of this place..
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De nada.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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09-24-2021, 01:02 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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As explanation to my request: While I have long studied the significance of speed (a phrase borrowed from the great William Quirin), to the point of sub-classifying early-lead types and profiling Mnr using various parameters to define running styles, I have never sought to confirm the logical assumption that the probability of an early leader winning improves at a rate disproportionate to incremental reductions in field size.
Smaller fields on average result in fewer speed-duels and less pressure on early leaders. We all take that as gospel. And I have assumed that such frequently seen and PREDICTED scenarios tend to condemn out-footed horses to chase early, often in uncomfortable contrast to their natural running styles.
Impact values of first call leaders, when categorized by field size (and formulated from a sufficient sample size), should confirm these commonly held perceptions.
Roi's of those first-call leaders, as respective to field size, would put the findings in perspective.
Last edited by mountainman; 09-24-2021 at 01:15 AM.
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09-24-2021, 01:22 AM
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#14
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,796
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Hey Ralph,
I added stats for POSFINCALL (finish position last out) to the linked to text file.
Hint: You may need to hit the refresh button on your webbrowser to see them after clicking the link to the text file.
As you can see, POSFINCALL last out between 1 and 3 had a higher win pct than 4th and up - but didn't do much for ROI.
I posted some follow up thoughts about this in the private area of my message board.
-jp
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Thank you Jeff………
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09-24-2021, 09:48 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Or to simplify my last post..I want to know if early leaders win more often than they statistically should in short(er) fields.
Last edited by mountainman; 09-24-2021 at 09:55 AM.
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