The Preakness Stakes

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

I need to read the pace discussion here again, but I've caught up with the public sharps I follow.

Looks like has to go, but can't contend with , who may be willing to rate. The favorite can rate or even go to the front if it's easy. Will push them at all in a Hail Mary bid?

All that, and may more forward, and maybe even drift down in price.

The is looking like a "must use" wise guy horse, if only underneath, tracking fifth or so.

If we get some pace, the 's stock rises.

Backing off as a clever idea. He may be the "only alternative" and take too much money, and just doesn't look good enough.

Hard to knock the top two, but for their short prices.

If doesn't "get loose" on the lead, which seems more likely than not, it doesn't have much pace advantage, even though it as a good fig last. I could see it place or show by not dominating on the front—even has a better late pace rating. I'll fade him a little.

Our man C.J. (who's on ) points out that Epicenter's close in the Derby was a bit of an illusion with horses backing up to him. Which doesn't mean can't win this as expected. Just a likely underlay odds on (Craig valued him at 2-1).

Now my stack looks more like this

,,,

Maybe the & aren't impossible (Mike Beer actually said that about ), and hats off to anyone that can make a case for them. But they don't look to inherit any pace help, since their best chances are to send, vs. way superior horses with speed.

I'm not playing + exactas, and not sure I have the audacity to box only ++. Someone has to hit the trifecta other than & , which means crushing underlays with both of them in that pool—which suggests overlays elsewhere.

,/++ exacta could work, maybe add one or two of the shots on top. Or some trifectas with only one of the top two. Something like
,,/,,,/,,

You originally tossed the that was good. So why are you fooling around with exactas? Play the super high 5. You have six horses left for five spots. Even the chalkiest way has to pay a minimum of $300 and possibly over a $1000 if the or gets in there for third. Go for the money!!!

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by zico20

Go for the money!!!

I like your style. I also lost my ass in the Derby on $1 Superfectas with six-digit payoffs dancing in my head like sugarplums. So I'm a little timid taking that kind of swing here, with all that chalk. But I'll see what I can do!

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

I like your style. I also lost my ass in the Derby on $1 Superfectas with six-digit payoffs dancing in my head like sugarplums. So I'm a little timid taking that kind of swing here, with all that chalk. But I'll see what I can do!

The Preakness and the Belmont are where you take those big swings. The Derby is where you play for fun hoping to catch lighting in a bottle. Play some partial wheels and then toss a few 20 straight high fives. If you are like me and think Epicenter won't lose then that narrows down the combinations. I think Simplification is a must use for second or third. That narrows it down even more. Before you know it your picturing thousands of dollars with an even money shot winning. There is nothing wrong with keying a big favorite on top if you have a strong feeling about how others are going to finish. There is almost always value with the favorite winning when going tri/super/high 5.

[nijinski]

:

[Sparky13]

[Aerocraft67]

, / ,,
,, / ,,,, / ,,,
,, / ,,,, / ,,,,, / ,,,

And the Zico Special:

, / ,,, / , / ,,, / ,

Kind of looks more like a horizontal, right? Makes a little more sense when you stack the slots vertically. Chalk can't finish deep. Shots must fill 5th. Mid prices must run third. Affordable $24.

Shots get more play in the shallower gimmicks.

Right now both and are 7-1 (?!). That prompted the little exacta swing. Not thrilled about going from wise to popular at 9-1, but not ready to abandon him (someone has to run 4th).

I just think will be cranked up for this by top tier connections. I'll bet him to win at >5-1.

A reasonable $65 investment.

Good luck!

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by zico20

The Preakness and the Belmont are where you take those big swings. The Derby is where you play for fun hoping to catch lighting in a bottle. Play some partial wheels and then toss a few 20 straight high fives. If you are like me and think Epicenter won't lose then that narrows down the combinations. I think Simplification is a must use for second or third. That narrows it down even more. Before you know it your picturing thousands of dollars with an even money shot winning. There is nothing wrong with keying a big favorite on top if you have a strong feeling about how others are going to finish. There is almost always value with the favorite winning when going tri/super/high 5.

Zico, remind me to drive down to FP to get whatever you're drinking, smoking or sniffing...

Actually, I agree with some of your thoughts - the Derby is much tougher to hit, and since trip is such a big part of it, it behooves the player to save ammo for the next couple of legs.

Also, keying a big chalk on top isn't as bad a deal on the "Big" racing days, where the public tosses in some dumb money on combinations with no chance. I won't argue with the approach to take a stand and take some straight tickets. As you know, I just am not convinced that the chalk today is worthy of too much confidence.

So, now you've convinced me that Epicenter is going to toss out the anchor at the 1/8th pole. Track is definitely playing to speed, so there may be a bit more of pace battle. But I think the fresh 5 horse can still be tough. Super High 5 you say? Okay, here's a cold ticket:







Good luck everybody!

[jay68802]

/ /

[jocko699]

I feel this race is loaded with pace. I think its going to be a cavalry charge with Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack (Blinkers, Armagnac, and maybe Skippylongstocking. Now Rosario will need to make a decision. Does he go a risk getting caught wide or does he ease Epicenter through the first half or so.

Epicenter is a nice horse, a really good grinder, and deservingly is the odds-on pick for the general public. Early Voting’s Wood race I thought was extremely good and only got caught late by a peaking Mo Donegal.

This race feels like a 3/8 final move can win it and for that I am picking Secret Oath. She has an incredible turn of foot and I feel Saez learned a lot in the Oaks. Lukas has another Lady’s Secret in his ripe old age.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Zico, remind me to drive down to FP to get whatever you're drinking, smoking or sniffing...

Actually, I agree with some of your thoughts - the Derby is much tougher to hit, and since trip is such a big part of it, it behooves the player to save ammo for the next couple of legs.

Also, keying a big chalk on top isn't as bad a deal on the "Big" racing days, where the public tosses in some dumb money on combinations with no chance. I won't argue with the approach to take a stand and take some straight tickets. As you know, I just am not convinced that the chalk today is worthy of too much confidence.

So, now you've convinced me that Epicenter is going to toss out the anchor at the 1/8th pole. Track is definitely playing to speed, so there may be a bit more of pace battle. But I think the fresh 5 horse can still be tough. Super High 5 you say? Okay, here's a cold ticket:







Good luck everybody!

I will mail it to you! I hope you play that, it is only $5. Of course I hope you lose.

Everyone knows who I like so I will post my order. with with with with the Epicenter has to win, Simplification has to be 2nd or 3rd. Skippylongstocking can't be third, just 4th or 5th. I played a single trifecta, six supers, and over a dozen straight super high 5's multiple times. Two or three times a year I go for it, this is one of them.

[Tom]

Preakness

Simplification
Epicenter
Early Voting

[Someday Silent]

Originally Posted by Tom

Preakness

Simplification
Epicenter
Early Voting

Keeping it simple, I see.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Tom

Preakness

Simplification
Epicenter
Early Voting

Are you trying to trick anyone by making Early Voting the

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Tom

Preakness

Simplification
Epicenter
Early Voting

Correction......Not picking Happy Jack!

YouTube

[Parkview_Pirate]

That tote board looks like something out of the Twilight Zone. 3-6-9 getting way more action than I would have guessed.