what do y'all think Rich Strike is going to do?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by pandy

I'm pretty sure that Giacomo and Mine That Bird never won another race. Orb was another closer that won the Derby and never won another race.

Giacomo won the San Diego at Del Mar as a 4YO.

[cj]

Originally Posted by pandy

I'm pretty sure that Giacomo and Mine That Bird never won another race. Orb was another closer that won the Derby and never won another race.

Lots of Derby winners in fairly recent times have never won another race. Running style doesn't seem to be much of a factor. Always Dreaming, Nyquist, and Super Saver were a combined 0 for 11 after their Derby wins.

[cj]

I think Rich Strike ran a good race in the Derby personally, but he also had a dream set up that is unlikely to materialize again. Even more troublesome for me is the rider. Belmont is such a unique track it can be troublesome for those not familiar with it. He's going to be overbet and I think he is unlikely to win.

[rastajenk]

On the other hand, he seems like a genuine stayer, and he's no more unproven at the distance than anything else in the field. Belmonts can play out in head-scratching ways, sometimes.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by pandy

I'm pretty sure that Giacomo and Mine That Bird never won another race. Orb was another closer that won the Derby and never won another race.

That's really unfair to MTB, who ran lights out in the Preakness and got beat by a superstar.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

He's going to be overbet and I think he is unlikely to win.

I'm not so sure he's going to be overbet, but I guess that depends on what you think is fair.

1. We are at the stage where everyone except the most causal fans knows that deep closers are not the ideal profile for the Belmont. I don't think it's much of a value oriented angle anymore.

2. Everyone knows he got a good pace setup in the Derby.

3. The public automatically tends to downgrade any horse that improved sharply to win at very long odds. They tend to weigh the horse's overall record as part of the assessment.

I'm probably not going to use him, especially if it look likes there's not a much pace, but I'm not so sure leaving him off is going to add a lot of value unless a ton of very casual money comes in on him.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That's really unfair to MTB, who ran lights out in the Preakness and got beat by a superstar.

The problem with MTB was that he jumped up to a big new peak for the Derby and then never got any better. At that level, he wasn't good enough to compete with the best older horses and other 3yos eventually developed enough to go past him.

[Someday Silent]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That's really unfair to MTB, who ran lights out in the Preakness and got beat by a superstar.

MTB was also third in the Belmont despite Borel's mediocre ride.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Someday Silent

MTB was also third in the Belmont despite Borel's mediocre ride.

Bad ride in hindsight. The flipside is that Dunkirk was maybe the most likely winner, and Borel gave Mine That Bird a chance to prevent a free run from Dunkirk and to give Mine That Bird a chance if good enough.

Charitable Man probably does enough on his own to stop Dunkirk from winning the race, and Summer Bird and Mine That Bird probably have a chance at beating Dunkirk, - if Mine That Bird had been ridden conservatively.

A little tough to say, since Mine That Bird may have slightly influenced the pace pressure. Probably a bad ride in hindsight.

Amazing workout-jock work, and amazing ride of Mine That Bird for the Kentucky Derby by Calvin Borel.


This 2022 Belmont Stakes has some unknown factors. Lots of opinions on Rich Strike.

[Robert Fischer]

We The People will have to earn it. Set a rapid pace, open up and run them all off their feet.

If not, why wouldn't Nest pounce with about a half mile to go?

In that scenario, Sonny Leon gets the big stage, on Big Sandy. He'll have a chance to show patience and drive, and Rich Strike will have a chance to prove his Kentucky Derby win wasn't an outlier. A fluke.

Sonny and Rich Strike won't have it all to themselves; Irad Ortiz and Mo Donegal will be making a strong late run.

[Robert Fischer]

Does Da'Tara count as a wire-to-wire winner? -That was the Big Brown year.

American Pharoah and Justify are the other examples here, but tough to compare those two to this field.

Not much 'late grinding' going on in these examples. Smart jocks made early moves to get position in a couple, however

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[pandy]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Giacomo won the San Diego at Del Mar as a 4YO.

I forgot that one, thanks Andy!

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

He beat 19 other really good horses in the Kentucky Derby. It wasn't a bad time, and he ended up passing 18 of his rivals....

From what I've seen of this year's crop, I would not describe the 19 also rans in the Derby as "really good horses".

Sure, on paper, some of them looked okay. But we'll have to see if Rich Strike, Epicenter, Zandon, Simplification, Mo Donegal, Barber Road, Classic Causeway, Taiba, Messier, White Abarrio and the others to see if any really qualify as a G1 decent horse against elders by year end.

Right now this group looks sub-par to me. But most years 1 or 2 rise to the top and show they're decent - but that may not happen until Breeder's Cup. There's no obvious star so far.

As for Rich Strike, he may not get the pace set up like in the Derby, but his credentials say he's as good as any 3YO. He may be 8th going down the back stretch, but if the pace is slower, he'll have less ground to make up. We'll find out if he really loves the dirt now after showing a huge and sharp improvement in the Derby. I think he hits the board and has about a 33% chance to win, making him a slight overlay at 7/2.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

From what I've seen of this year's crop, I would not describe the 19 also rans in the Derby as "really good horses".

Sure, on paper, some of them looked okay. But we'll have to see if Rich Strike, Epicenter, Zandon, Simplification, Mo Donegal, Barber Road, Classic Causeway, Taiba, Messier, White Abarrio and the others to see if any really qualify as a G1 decent horse against elders by year end.

Right now this group looks sub-par to me. But most years 1 or 2 rise to the top and show they're decent - but that may not happen until Breeder's Cup. There's no obvious star so far.

As for Rich Strike, he may not get the pace set up like in the Derby, but his credentials say he's as good as any 3YO. He may be 8th going down the back stretch, but if the pace is slower, he'll have less ground to make up. We'll find out if he really loves the dirt now after showing a huge and sharp improvement in the Derby. I think he hits the board and has about a 33% chance to win, making him a slight overlay at 7/2.

equinedge has him as 3-1 and i think thats a decent line. nest is the 5-2 chalkie with them. 3-1 also on Mo. 6-1 we the people.

Allan

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

From what I've seen of this year's crop, I would not describe the 19 also rans in the Derby as "really good horses".

Sure, on paper, some of them looked okay. But we'll have to see if Rich Strike, Epicenter, Zandon, Simplification, Mo Donegal, Barber Road, Classic Causeway, Taiba, Messier, White Abarrio and the others to see if any really qualify as a G1 decent horse against elders by year end.

Right now this group looks sub-par to me. But most years 1 or 2 rise to the top and show they're decent - but that may not happen until Breeder's Cup. There's no obvious star so far.

As for Rich Strike, he may not get the pace set up like in the Derby, but his credentials say he's as good as any 3YO. He may be 8th going down the back stretch, but if the pace is slower, he'll have less ground to make up. We'll find out if he really loves the dirt now after showing a huge and sharp improvement in the Derby. I think he hits the board and has about a 33% chance to win, making him a slight overlay at 7/2.

How are the 20 that went into the gate of the Kentucky Derby not really good horses? I didn't say any of them were great, but they are all damn sure really good horses.

Time will tell how this crop fills out when they start racing against elders, but for now, Rich Strike beat his peers when it really mattered.