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04-21-2022, 09:27 AM
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#61
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
Can you please interpret the above?
Assume I'm stupid and really lay it out plainly.
Thanks in advance.
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suppose you developed a system for betting favorites. in 1000 races your system selected 300 races to play the favorite which won 50% of the races with a %5 profit (that's a $1 dollar return of $1.05).
Now if in those 1000 races all favorites won but 33% of the races and returned only $0.84 on the dollar you would have outperformed the public by $1.05/ $0.84 = 125%, which may be significant when measured by a statical analysis.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-21-2022, 09:42 AM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
574 race recap
a flat bet on all favorites returned $.089. winning 40% of the time
using my bet sizes for 171 bets on my selected favorites returned $1.05, these plays returned a flat bet of $1.00 on the dollar, winning 51% of the time. no outliers |
Sorry if it seems like I'm picking on your sentence structure, but are you saying this:
Flat-betting all post-time favorites (as determined after the race, I suspect) had a 40% win rate returning 8.9 cents? On a (nominal) dollar bet size?
Your method, betting fewer races, had a 51% hot rate with a 5% profit?
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04-21-2022, 11:03 AM
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#63
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
Sorry if it seems like I'm picking on your sentence structure, but are you saying this:
Flat-betting all post-time favorites (as determined after the race, I suspect) had a 40% win rate returning 8.9 cents? On a (nominal) dollar bet size?
Your method, betting fewer races, had a 51% hot rate with a 5% profit?
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correct. except the public fav returned $0.89 on the dollar
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 04-21-2022 at 11:09 AM.
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04-21-2022, 05:06 PM
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#64
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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broke down results by track
I looked at 14 tracks
my play outperformed the public in 10 tracks
loss to the public in 4 tracks
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 04-21-2022 at 05:07 PM.
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04-27-2022, 09:05 AM
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#65
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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an observation.
Nothing like data!!
I notice that there is a "significant" $1 return when using one additional factor in my calculation:
a higher factor returned the following: 88 plays $1 fb return was $1.06. my bet size had a $1 return of $1.17.
a play on all favorites returned $0.86 on the dollar
a lower factor returned the following: 83 plays $1 fb return was $0.93. my bet size had a $1 return of $0.95
a play on all favorites returned $0.86 on the dollar
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-10-2022, 11:23 PM
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#66
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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IF I GOT THIS RIGHT, ALL LOOKS GOOD
IN ALL 682 RACES, FAV WON 40% (THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $0.87)
IN 72 SYSTEM PLAY RACES, FAVORITE WON 68%(THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $1.10)
USING SOMEWHAT THE STATICAL REFERENCES FROM FABRICAND’S BOOK “HORSE SENSE”
THE MEAN = 40% X 72 = 30
SQRT(72 X .68 X .32) =3.96
AT THE 1% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE, THE SYSTEM WINS MUST BE >=(3.96 X 2.5) +30 = 40
THE SYSTEM PLAY WINS WERE 72 X .68 = 49.
Playing only 11% of the races back in the day would not be too practical, but today, given proper programing, you could run this system 24/7
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-11-2022, 01:29 PM
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#67
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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I have started to document, in detail, the structure of the play and find it to be a major effort. there are countless numbers of inter-related excel cells not including the two-programed exacta matrices boards, w,p,s and excata pools.
but who said winning 68% of the time is easy..
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 05-11-2022 at 01:30 PM.
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05-19-2022, 12:44 PM
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#68
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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IN ALL 782 RACES, FAV WON 49% (THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $0.94)
IN 135 SYSTEM PLAY RACES, FAVORITE WON 61%(THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $1.31)
THE RESULTS EXCEED THE 1% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE .
I'll post some live plays!!
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-19-2022, 01:06 PM
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#69
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Belterra Park Race 2
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-19-2022, 01:13 PM
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#70
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Belterra Park Race 2
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A WALK IN THE PARK AT 1/5..
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-20-2022, 07:40 AM
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#71
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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FR Vichy* Race 1 PGNO
2.443 <<BET SIZE 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-20-2022, 07:52 AM
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#72
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
FR Vichy* Race 1 PGNO
2.443 <<BET SIZE |
MUSTAFFIZ $1 returned $2.1 to win
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-20-2022, 12:03 PM
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#73
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Pimlico* Race 2 PGNO
2.215 <<BET SIZE 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-20-2022, 12:42 PM
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#74
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Pimlico* Race 2 PGNO
2.215 <<BET SIZE |
Run Raegan Run returns $2.30 on the dollar
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-20-2022, 06:25 PM
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#75
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Pimlico* Race 14 PGNO
4.403 <<BET SIZE 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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