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Old 05-24-2019, 08:48 PM   #31
bobphilo
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He possesses (4) points in the Solid category (most in this field), getting those points from Sadler’s Wells, as a broodmare sire his 2014 AWD is an impressive 9.55f. Is Sadler’s Wells transmitting stamina into this speedy War Front type? In addition, there is a statistical relationship between DP points and distance, classic points and distance and CD and distance.
Again with the Dosage Stuff. It's much like the unscientific Freudian Psychoanalytic Theory. So great at explaining something after the fact but not so good at predicting the future without going back and adding something new to make it fit. Remember when the dosage people were saying no horse could win the Derby unless it had a certain dosage or center of distribution number. When one horse that violated the rule (I think it was Strike the Gold) won the Derby, they just went back and added a new Chief the Race to it's pedigree, and viola, it works again.
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Old 05-24-2019, 09:20 PM   #32
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Here's an interesting article that explains the uses and limitations of Dosage Theory in greater detail than I did from someone who studied it and used it himself.

https://www.usracing.com/news/analys...-flawed-theory
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Old 05-25-2019, 01:30 AM   #33
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Pedigree analysis is crucial . . .

Few people understand that Dosage is a pedigree classification system; fewer yet understand how to use that system as a handicapping tool.

I’m OK with that.

~

I’ve listed the Belmont contenders from highest to lowest CD. Interesting War of Will and Tax are much lower than the others. War of Will should be tough but is one Springhalt spasm away from a Louisiana repeat . . .

Tacitus: DP = 6-10-11-1-0 (28) DI = 3.31 CD = 0.75
Everfast: DP = 3-13-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.68
Spinoff: DP = 6-10-18-0-0 (34) DI = 2.78 CD = 0.65
Master Fencer: DP = 3-4-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.64
Owendale: DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63
Sir Winston: DP = 4-8-14-0-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.62
Intrepid Heart: DP = 4-9-14-1-0 (28) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57
War of Will: DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72 CD = 0.41
Tax: DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56 CD = 0.31
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Old 05-25-2019, 08:26 AM   #34
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Few people understand that Dosage is a pedigree classification system; fewer yet understand how to use that system as a handicapping tool.
Its inherent flaws notwithstanding, the Dosage system is no longer useful because the list of chef-de-races is no longer updated.

I would presume that Tapit would be a chef-de-race by now and would almost certainly impart points in the Classic and either the Solid or Professional categories. He's sired the winner or a place horse in each of the last 5 Belmonts, the only NA dirt Grade 1 left at 12 furlongs.
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Old 05-25-2019, 08:55 AM   #35
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A big problem with Dosage Theory is that it gives no importance to the females in the pedigree. Given that a horse inherits half their genes from the dam, it is only 50% effective at best. It could be even less effective than that since it doesn't acknowledge that mitochondrial DNA is only passed down from the dam.
In addition, genetics tells us that since a horse's genetic influence is halved with each generation, the influence of any horse more than 2 or 3 generations back is negligible. Also due to the Law of Independent Assortment we can't know which genes or combination of genes are being passed down.
The whole theory completely ignores what modern genetics has thought us about mitochondrial DNA and the Law of Independent Assortment and is scientifically weak.
The best way to see what abilities a horse has inherited, is just to look at the horse

Last edited by bobphilo; 05-25-2019 at 08:57 AM.
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