Stock Market Prediction

[PaceAdvantage]

Where do you think all this money to "help" people is coming from. The gov't can only do so much.

The US gov't wasn't in the best financial shape before all of this...in fact, they were in terrible shape. This is the LAST thing anybody needed.

Monetary policy no longer does anything. It is completely impotent in this case, even more so since the last bout of monetary policy left us with few bullets in reserve.

What the FED did in response to COVID-19, on any other regular day, would have had a major impact on markets...here, it didn't even cause a hiccup. That's how bad everything is now.

BTW, these markets are kind of drying up. I saw it yesterday, and I'm seeing it again today. We are consolidating....probably for the next major move down.

2500 on S&P futures is where the line has been drawn...we'll know pretty soon which side wins....

[highernote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Where do you think all this money to "help" people is coming from. The gov't can only do so much.

The US gov't wasn't in the best financial shape before all of this...in fact, they were in terrible shape. This is the LAST thing anybody needed.

Monetary policy no longer does anything. It is completely impotent in this case, even more so since the last bout of monetary policy left us with few bullets in reserve.

What the FED did in response to COVID-19, on any other regular day, would have had a major impact on markets...here, it didn't even cause a hiccup. That's how bad everything is now.

BTW, these markets are kind of drying up. I saw it yesterday, and I'm seeing it again today. We are consolidating....probably for the next major move down.

2500 on S&P futures is where the line has been drawn...we'll know pretty soon which side wins....

Volume on the NYSE was low yesterday. I haven't looked today. Some options expire today. Not sure how that affects volume.

The gov owns the printing presses. They can print as much money as needed. Of course, that could cause other problems like hyperinflation. But soon we are going to see deflation. And when that happens it could turn into a depression. So I'm not sure hyperinflation is the main concern.

The Great Dust Bowl caused a mass migration to California from Oklahoma because people lost their farms and homes. If people lose their homes now where are they going to go? They aren't allowed to leave their homes!

We got through the Spanish Flu of 1918. We'll get through this. The Roaring Twenties followed the Spanish Flu. So we'll see if we get the Roaring 2020's.

In the meantime, there are lessons to be learned from John Steinbeck's "The Grapes of Wrath". Great book.

[PaceAdvantage]

Americans were a MUCH hardier bunch back then.

It's completely different now.

You can't compare now to then. There is no comparison.

Everything is completely different and turned on its head.

New paradigms coming everywhere...which is the main reason why I think this market is heading much lower. The market hates uncertainty.

This was only the first wave.

[highernote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Americans were a MUCH hardier bunch back then.

It's completely different now.

You can't compare now to then. There is no comparison.

Everything is completely different and turned on its head.

New paradigms coming everywhere...which is the main reason why I think this market is heading much lower. The market hates uncertainty.

This was only the first wave.

That sounds reasonable. The Spanish Flu came in 3 waves. The second was the deadliest.

We will see if humans have the resourcefulness to adapt to this new environment. I bet they will. What else can people do? They can't roll up and die? Some will. But we will figure it out because we have no choice but to figure it out.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by highernote

That sounds reasonable. The Spanish Flu came in 3 waves. The second was the deadliest.

We will see if humans have the resourcefulness to adapt to this new environment. I bet they will. What else can people do? They can't roll up and die? Some will. But we will figure it out because we have no choice but to figure it out.

The virus is only the catalyst. We are looking at major problems within the financial world.

If Biden were to become President, and that is a big IF, would he confiscate gold from citizens, just like FDR did?

[lamboguy]

this market is going to hell for now and probably quite awhile to come. more than likely to bounce around S+P 2000, just to suck more people into it, those are the people that think the bottom is in.

my advice to anyone trying to play these markets is they better know they are doing, otherwise they will get cleaned out.

[highernote]

Originally Posted by Valuist

The virus is only the catalyst. We are looking at major problems within the financial world.

If Biden were to become President, and that is a big IF, would he confiscate gold from citizens, just like FDR did?

The U.S. still has the greatest economic engine in the world. She has so many advantages over the rest of the world. A huge agricultural base with easy access to oceans via the west coast and Gulf coast. The Mississippi River is basically a free transportation system that can deliver grain and other goods to New Orleans and ship it out to the rest of the world. The fracking industry can produce all the oil the country needs. The U.S. dollar is still the world's reserve currency.

From wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act

President Franklin D. Roosevelt changed the statutory price of gold from $20.67 per troy ounce to $35. This price change incentivized gold miners globally to expand production and foreigners to export their gold to the United States, while simultaneously by devaluing the U.S. dollar it reduced deflation. The increase in gold reserves due to the price change resulted in a large accumulation of gold in the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury, much of which was stored in the United States Bullion Depository at Fort Knox and other locations. The increase in gold reserves increased the money supply, lowering real interest rates which in turn increased investment in durable goods.

You might want to pick up a copy of this book that my father bought back in the 1970s when gold prices started to skyrocket -- "How to Profit from the Coming Devaluation":

https://www.amazon.com/How-You-Profi...5939883&sr=8-2

[lamboguy]

is this going to be a charge into the close for the last hour. S+P looks like its testing the low from a few days ago, rejecting it on lighter volume. probably going up a little from here.

[highernote]

If Trump devalues the U.S. dollar it will make exports cheaper for countries that buy from the U.S. and it will make imports into the U.S. more expensive.

Farmers will benefit from cheap exports.

Cheap U.S. oil will affect Russia and Saudi Arabia. Do you think this might have something to do with the current oil situation?

Devaluation will also make it cheaper to pay off debt -- student loan and mortgage debt is out of control.

It will also benefit people who rely on social security income. Guess who is retiring -- baby boomers and there are gazillions of them.

[lamboguy]

the bulls and bears are fighting it out now into the weekend.

[lamboguy]

market making small come back into close.

gonna take the s+p's short to bed with me for a down opening on monday.

these airlines are a trip and a half. they get bailed out and buy back stock at highs, then go bankrupt again and get bailed out and repeat the process for the executives and shareholders. in the interim they fleece their customers and pack you into those planes like sardines.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

market making small come back into close.

gonna take the s+p's short to bed with me for a down opening on monday.

Would cover at the open if I were you.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey;2572268

NVAX toast



Was going to post about it today, but my consulting days are long over.



Already advised exiting to the other guy at much higher prices than 10

Alton the Gone's post didn't age well. NVAX closed at 15.61 today. I guess I'm the "other guy" referred to - holding this one as it gets Nanoflu to market with Emergent as partner, works on COVID-19, and still has ResVax in the wings.

[Secondbest]

Now that a lot of the southern states are going to lockdown the economy will only get worse. The unemployment rate will soon approach the levels of the Great Depression.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Alton the Gone's post didn't age well. NVAX closed at 15.61 today. I guess I'm the "other guy" referred to - holding this one as it gets Nanoflu to market with Emergent as partner, works on COVID-19, and still has ResVax in the wings.

You didn't take his advice very well. I was fascinated by the fairly quick devolvement of his online personality. My thinking is he took some nasty hits to his investments, and then PA was like Doc Holliday telling Johnny Ringo, "Poor soul, he was just too high strung." It may have not been a lot of fun for Mike, but like a lot of the crash and burns, it was entertaining.

YouTube