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09-03-2011, 01:22 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 425
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the way I'm betting it:
Convocation and Flat Out box exacta
Convocation/Flat Out over Havre De Grace in exacta
Covocation over Flat Out over Havre de Grace in triple
Flat Out over Convocation over Havre de Grace in triple
all in fun, no one gets hurt
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Convocation has distance covered
Flat Out improving can handle added weight
Havre de Grace good but not good enough
good betting to all!
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09-03-2011, 01:29 PM
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#17
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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Pletcher
Rule could steal away under JJ.
I've said before that Mission Impazible is a cut below the top older horses, but he will get a beauty trip and every chance to be in the mix turning for home...beware. Second off the layoff, nice inside draw, top jock in the irons, 10-1 ML...he can get a piece.
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How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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09-03-2011, 01:51 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,005
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rule will not crack the top half of this race. this is one of those "hope we cash in" entries, hope he stumbles into winning a grade 1 so they can retire him type races.
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09-03-2011, 01:59 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 373
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Calder horse
I'm well aware that winning a four horse non-graded stake at Calder is a far cry from a top grade event, but I give Mambo Meister a decent shot here...the line is 10:1, which seems too high given the beyer # he put up while rolling home...some of the others are coming in here in decent form but none of them particurlarly sharp, so a chance at a decent price imo.
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09-03-2011, 02:05 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,005
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the last race he ran in was a paper champion type race. he had no shot to lose that race. i would not p9ut much stock in that last race, saw it on TV, wasn't all that impressive
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09-03-2011, 02:22 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,618
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by oddsmaven
I'm well aware that winning a four horse non-graded stake at Calder is a far cry from a top grade event, but I give Mambo Meister a decent shot here...the line is 10:1, which seems too high given the beyer # he put up while rolling home...some of the others are coming in here in decent form but none of them particurlarly sharp, so a chance at a decent price imo.
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IMO he's got a shot, but he's been around a long time and has had plenty of races. It's questionable whether that figure suggests he has actually improved in a sustainable way. It looks more like he caught a soft field. Despite that, he's not so far off the others on his best races that he can't get into the mix. IMO he's usable at a price.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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09-03-2011, 02:30 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Normally in races like this I throw out the Mare for the top spot but in this case that leaves me with Flat Out so I'll probably just be watching this one as I don't think you're going to get 5/2 on him.
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09-03-2011, 02:35 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 373
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
IMO he's got a shot, but he's been around a long time and has had plenty of races. It's questionable whether that figure suggests he has actually improved in a sustainable way. It looks more like he caught a soft field. Despite that, he's not so far off the others on his best races that he can't get into the mix. IMO he's usable at a price.
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Class,
Your view is pretty much in line with how I see it...Mambo might get blown away like he did last year here, but he should be viewed as having a shot off that figure...i wonder if he goes more like 6:1 or maybe less as the longshot line seems wrong, though i respect the linemaker immensely...if i were betting the filly or Flat Out and felt they were good today, i wouldn't be worrying about horses in lackluster form like Giant Oak & Mission Impazible - but i would consider Mambo a pain in the neck who might be dangerous, while not helping my price a lot.
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09-03-2011, 02:50 PM
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#24
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Not exactly an A list Grade 1 today......I give HDG a shot just because at least she shows consistency.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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09-03-2011, 02:55 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,618
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
Not exactly an A list Grade 1 today......I give HDG a shot just because at least she shows consistency.
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Yep.
She's a well above average Grade 1 mare and this is a below average Grade 1 race for older males. She should fit well even if it turns out she's not good enough to win at this level.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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09-03-2011, 03:02 PM
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#26
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
If she can't finish at least 2nd in this race, it will demonstrate how hard it is for fillies and mares (even very very good ones) to compete against boys in dirt routes (and even more so at 10F)
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I'm sure you know this, but so as not to confuse anyone today's race is 9f.
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09-03-2011, 03:07 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,618
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
I'm sure you know this, but so as not to confuse anyone today's race is 9f.
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Thanks. I knew that. I was referring back to prior conversations where I made that point. I need a remedial writing class on making my points clearly and succinctly. 
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-03-2011 at 03:09 PM.
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09-03-2011, 04:05 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Thanks. I knew that. I was referring back to prior conversations where I made that point. I need a remedial writing class on making my points clearly and succinctly. |
I enjoy your posts. If you ever find that class, let me know as I could use it too sometimes 
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09-03-2011, 04:39 PM
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#29
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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As for the undercard, I'm taking the  Pachattack to win the Personal Ensign.
5/2 is actually bettable believe it or not, at least for me...
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09-03-2011, 04:41 PM
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#30
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
As for the undercard, I'm taking the Pachattack to win the Personal Ensign.
5/2 is actually bettable believe it or not, at least for me... |
Too low for me for a horse with no dirt form.
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