Odds lines are useless

[Capper Al]

Why? To do an accurate odds line one at least would have to estimate the following factors:

• Value of the horse in today's field
• Racing luck
• (And the big one) Will the connections be trying?

Horse's value: No doubt one can express a number on a horse's value. Will it be real? Maybe most of the time. This leaves error unaccounted for in the source selection.
Racing luck: Can't be accounted for.
Are they trying: Or maybe the horse is just starting to go out of form?

These are just some of the reasons why odds line wagering doesn't work.

But will the fudge factor cover? Let's us the accepted 50% mark up, a 3/1 horse goes off at 5/1 for example. Will this cover up sins? No. The problem is the handicapper always gets the leftovers after the public. If there is anything good about the horse, the public has first choice and bets him down leaving little for the handicapper to play with.

Does the public go wild and miss the value on some horses? Yes. But remember their intelligence rate is 33% to 38% win percent vs the good handicapper at 25% to 30%. Who would you bet on over the long run will miss the value the most? Ah yes, the handicapper.

It's best to take odds lines with a grain of salt.

[lamboguy]

there are odds lines that are great. i used to spend $150 a month to get it and it was well worth it. the odds were based strictly on pace. if you had an overlay in that line and played them you would be a winner in the game.
the problem i had was when i played them going in the gate i was getting the overlay's, then once the gate opened the odds on my horses usually fell.

i had to go to a different system, what i do is anticipate which horses are going to get bet and which aren't after the race starts. actually has been working out fairly well.

[HUSKER55]

the ML gives you an idea of who the likely contenders are and then you need to decide if the entry is legit.

[Tom]

ML is useless, but HTR's AML is priceless.

[Overlay]

It would be hard for me to put blind faith in any odds line without knowing how it was developed, even if I respected the handicapping ability of whoever developed it. However, if I had insight into how the line was made up, and agreed with the manner in which it was done (and especially if the line was based on a consistent, replicable, quantitative process, rather than on variable, race-to-race, qualitative intuition), I wouldn't hesitate to use it both as a gauge of the actual winning chances of individual horses and exotic combinations, and as a tool for optimal sizing and distribution of wagers based on the disparity between the fair odds or payoff of a horse or combination according to the line, and the actual odds or payoff established by the public.

Even if I were to change my handicapping procedure from evaluating the winning chances of each horse in the field, to narrowing a race field down by a process of elimination to the one most likely winner, I'd still want to have a reliable means of knowing whether that remaining horse's odds were offering me enough value to compensate me for the risk that I was taking in wagering on it.

[ultracapper]

TTWAGOS is how I voted. I refer to them as a guide to how hard I should handicap the race. If in my preliminary work, I have highlighted 3 contenders, and the ML on the 3 are 8/5, 5/2, and 7/2, I probably won't work the race that hard because, if the ML maker is correct, the PT odds won't justify a very serious bet.

[PaceAdvantage]

Odds lines are useful to those who can create ones that are accurate-enough to be profitable.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Odds lines are useful to those who can create ones that are accurate-enough to be profitable.

+1

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Odds lines are useful to those who can create ones that are accurate-enough to be profitable.

I remember reading an interview with Charlie Munger where he was asked if Warren Buffett created any elaborate spreadsheets to help him value companies the way investment bankers and stock analysts off do. His answer was pretty interesting.

He more or less said it wasn't necessary.

If a company represents good enough value to be investment worthy, you don't need the spreadsheet with all the number crunching to determine it. It leaps off the pages at you because the price is so out of line and because you want some margin of safety before taking action anyway.

I kind of know what he means. After I handicap a race, there's a range of odds that will feel reasonable to me. Once in awhile I look at the board and something leaps out at me because it's so out of line with my thinking. That's when I want to get involved.

[therussmeister]

Racing luck: Can't be accounted for.

Not at all true. Indeed it is easy to account for racing luck in an odds line.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Racing luck: Can't be accounted for.

Not at all true. Indeed it is easy to account for racing luck.

To a limited extent, I agree. Not entirely, but in some instances, and to a certain degree, sometimes you can "see it coming" as you put the race together in making a betting decision.

[thaskalos]

No matter how you slice it, gambling is a battle against the odds. You have to know the odds against you...if you hope to survive. Some winning players use odds-lines, while others trust the intuition that they've developed after years and years of (usually painful) participation in their game of choice. Some use a combination of the two. In any case...we are all trying to do the same thing; place ourselves in a favorable position against the odds. You have to KNOW the odds against you, before you can put yourself in a favorable position against them.

Those who say that an odds-line cannot account for the whims of the gambling gods, do not know what the odds-line's job really is. The odds-line doesn't tell us what will happen in the short-term; it tells us what we can expect in the long-term.

At the poker table...no "odds-line" can tell me what the next card will bring. But only by having knowledge of the odds can I hope to travel through the poker minefield...and make it safely to the other side.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Odds lines are useful to those who can create ones that are accurate-enough to be profitable.

I agree with Mike, the value of a line is in its accuracy. That being said, I don't trust anyone else, and I can't make a line that is accurate enough to bet on. So, I don't use odds lines at all, at least until the day I can make one that is accurate enough to produce long term profit.

[Sapio]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

No matter how you slice it, gambling is a battle against the odds. You have to know the odds against you...if you hope to survive. Some winning players use odds-lines, while others trust the intuition that they've developed after years and years of (usually painful) participation in their game of choice. Some use a combination of the two. In any case...we are all trying to do the same thing; place ourselves in a favorable position against the odds. You have to KNOW the odds against you, before you can put yourself in a favorable position against them.

Those who say that an odds-line cannot account for the whims of the gambling gods, do not know what the odds-line's job really is. The odds-line doesn't tell us what will happen in the short-term; it tells us what we can expect in the long-term.

At the poker table...no "odds-line" can tell me what the next card will bring. But only by having knowledge of the odds can I hope to travel through the poker minefield...and make it safely to the other
side.

Hi thaskalos

It is all about odds. Phil Galfond's rise in the game can be attributed to his knowledge of logic and Bayesian probability and he is not alone.

Thomas Sapio

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Sapio

Hi thaskalos

It is all about odds. Phil Galfond's rise in the game can be attributed to his knowledge of logic and Bayesian probability and he is not alone.

Thomas Sapio

Galfond is no mere mortal when it comes to poker...so we may not all be able to climb to the heights that he has -- no matter HOW proficient we get in "logic and Bayesian probability". But we can all IMPROVE OUR GAME...and that's what really counts in the end.

I was never a "math guy"...and for too long, I took pride in being a "play-by-the seat-of-my-pants" type of player. But I had to improve my math skills...because I noticed that the "intuitive" players were becoming extinct.