Half pole leaders on the Off-track surface

[Ray2000]

This is the win %s of the horses who hold the lead at the 1/2 mile pole.
Shows the importance of having the lead on the half mile.
But I thought it was strange that the sloppy half mile track hurts the leader.

Cond	Mile or 7/8	5/8 mile	1/2 Mile
FT 	2631		13188		15218
%Won	33.5%		42.5%		50.1%
					
Not FT	476		3097		2892
%Won	35.3%		42.0%		47.2%

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

This is the win %s of the horses who hold the lead at the 1/2 mile pole.
Shows the importance of having the lead on the half mile.
But I thought it was strange that the sloppy half mile track hurts the leader.

THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE A SECRET!!

I learned a loooonnnnnggggg time ago to look for closers on the off track as speed gets overbet. True on ALL SIZE tracks.

[tyler522]

Ray, is there a track that has higher win% & ROI, on class drops & driver upgrades,say from a B driver to one with high UDRS? Thanks in advance

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by tyler522

Ray, is there a track that has higher win% & ROI, on class drops & driver upgrades,say from a B driver to one with high UDRS? Thanks in advance

Yes, but it's in Sweden


I'll see what I can find...

[tyler522]

Thanks,

[tyler522]

Congrats on PITT, Champions

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by tyler522

Congrats on PITT, Champions

...Took a bit of luck.... WAY TO GO PENNS

The goddess Fortuna has been avoiding me lately...wonder what I did to piss her off.


tyler
The search criteria is too strict to find enough starters with those characteristics.
I believe you need at least 500 races for Win% near 20... (95% confidence, +-3.5% margin)
I'm using a class drop of more than 3 Trackmaster points and a driver UDR increase of 100 or more.

...		Starts	Win%	ROI
NFLD		516	27%	0.99
MEA		170	31%	1.03
STGA		142	25%	0.77
PCD		120	18%	0.58
MR		107	24%	0.57
FLMD		103	18%	0.66
MOH		69	16%	0.40
PPK		68	13%	0.38
YR		63	17%	0.50
MVR		59	19%	2.91
HOP		59	19%	0.67
HAW		52	10%	0.21
CALX		52	27%	1.00
WDB		48	21%	1.00
LON		42	10%	0.46
M		39	31%	1.43
RIDC		30	27%	1.04
BR		27	26%	1.33
DD		26	23%	0.87
				
All		1792	23%	0.87

[tyler522]

Thanks again.