POPS&TIPS - Page 67 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

goforgin · 10-06-2009, 08:36 PM

Bob, I still use TIPS. I agree, a large number of the TIPS is overkill. I only set-up about 2/3's to 3/4's of them. I have defined the TIPS as primary and secondary. I check for the primary TIPS for a play. Then check to see if there are also any secondary ones. The primary ones I use are B-100/B-TOP combo, QBF, D-QBE, TRIP/TT, FH+ and a few others. Then I check secondary for good trainer win percentage and/or high trainer/jockey win% combo's. QBF with TT or TTT plus a few others works well. I also like some that you mention like PW and LWO<5. I have also incorporated PTW, SAP and TOO which came with the program. I am a part-time player so tracking everything is 2 to 3 tracks maybe 3 or 4 times per month. But, I like using it for the drudgery reason you mentioned and based on a few nice scores that I've had.

ogredad · 10-07-2009, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goforgin

Bob, I still use TIPS. I agree, a large number of the TIPS is overkill. I only set-up about 2/3's to 3/4's of them. I have defined the TIPS as primary and secondary. I check for the primary TIPS for a play. Then check to see if there are also any secondary ones. The primary ones I use are B-100/B-TOP combo, QBF, D-QBE, TRIP/TT, FH+ and a few others. Then I check secondary for good trainer win percentage and/or high trainer/jockey win% combo's. QBF with TT or TTT plus a few others works well. I also like some that you mention like PW and LWO<5. I have also incorporated PTW, SAP and TOO which came with the program. I am a part-time player so tracking everything is 2 to 3 tracks maybe 3 or 4 times per month. But, I like using it for the drudgery reason you mentioned and based on a few nice scores that I've had.

Thanks for responding. This is the type of message I was anticipating [and I didn't have to wait long]!
Since I don't have the PC program I am at a disadvantage. The 2008 Tips update doesn't mention some of the above. But then, maybe I can live without them.
I recall one of the last posts before it all came to a screeching halt. Something to the effect of, "I can understand [the bugs]? - But NOT ignoring them."
That seemed almost like an epitaph!
Tips seemed to show so much promise. It was rather shocking to see it all end so abruptly.
Hopefully the PC Tips users will read these new posts and become interested enough to start posting again. What these users need to do is keep an open mind, forget all the negatives they encountered, and start over with a whole new mindset [Streamline the program, get rid of the dross and put your game face on. You can do it]

I became discouraged with it all about 10 years ago [I mostly played Fairmount, which I finally decided was a joke - I live just across the river in St. Louis and went to the track] I had my wife throw out ALL my racing material [I didn't have the heart] But the old racing bug came back and bit me in January of 2008. I reordered much of the original material from Jon Worth....and here I am.
I am NOT a quitter!
C'mon you guys! Get out of your Twilight Zone. Come on down and let's Make a Deal!

God Bless everyone on this board.

Bob

ogredad · 10-07-2009, 04:57 PM

[I sure hope someone besides goforgin reads this]!

[LAST 2-4 RACES]
SCRATCH: LOSE MORE THAN 2.5 LENGTHS STRETCH TO FINISH @ DIST.
SCRATCH: WON LAST RACE UNLESS FH-25 DAYS OR EVF by 1 length OR 5 DAYS
SINCE LAST OUT
SCRATCH: HI PP ODDS UNLESS +50 OFF [BIG DROP]
SCRATCH: WEAK FINISHES UNLESS SUSPECT
SCRATCH: LATE PACE IN SPRINTS
SCRATCH: VERY LATE PACE IN ROUTES
SCRATCH: HORSES OUT OVER 70 DAYS [I've seen the classiest layoff horses lose]
PASS: TOO MANY CONTENDERS

TIPS:
1. S: [My idea] Suspect pacelines [I've found my best plays using just 1. and 2.]
IR [The more lengths the better] BG [Big gain Or SRG] ELR OR M
2. RPL: [My idea] Reverse pacelines [EF - Eased in one race; BG from far back in
another - Did not win] These usually show up in last two races.
3. DSS-CL [Dist. switch shorter, relative to today's, ran 1st or 2nd [Best] I don't use
BREAK in the traditional sense, but carry it to the appropriate call.
If route to sprint, I use the horse's 6 furlong call [Must also show
"Fast Fractions"] If distance is different use your judgement. I give this Tip
even if horse is going from a 6 furlong to a 5 furlong race, etc. [I'm following
Tom's advice, "Each player can and should adjust the way he uses Tips to suit
his own personality and style of play."
4. CYC-3 FINISH [My idea] Or IA: Also *BCYC-3 FINISH [*Beaten - the same way
POPS are used. I see many winners with this pattern. [I believe this is why the
PC program isn't working to peoples' expectations; Too many non-connected
angles]
5. RW/Hi%-FH+: [My idea] RECENT STRONG WIN OR GOOD WIN % in PP- FH+ -
RECENT WO -5 DAYS [BEST] NOTE: Recent WO not necessary if within
25-30 days BUT I feel better to see it present!
6. R/BG/11: [My idea] BIG GAIN [TO FINISH] LAST RACE, FH+ - LATE PACE
OK [Should show EF IN PP UNLESS ROUTE]Back in 11 days [7 better]
7. FH-WO-5/10 - 2 RACES OR RACE/WO WITHIN 5-10 DAYS WITHIN LAST 5-10
DAYS [I caught a Big One at PENN that had 2 races in 4 days; was returning
in 7! [I've found this to work just as well as the WUT]
8. NTR ^ [My idea] [New Trainer-Improves] I've seen lots of these!
9. FH ^ [My idea] [Fresh horse + Improves] I've seen lots of these also! [Many times
they are both present]
10. WO-5: This shows up often in winners at PENN also.

I sure hope to get a good response.

Bob

[Please feel free to agree or disagree. I'm only going by my own experience] I sure hope I've made no mistakes!

I've proofread this a dozen times, hahaha.

barnes99 · 10-09-2009, 09:35 PM

Hi guys, this is my first post so i hope i did it right. I'm 30 and have been been playing the races off and on since i was 13. I won my first quinella at eureka downs with my grandpa. Since then i've played when i could find time. And I will be the first to admit, I have wasted more money on tipsters, methods, and books than I've cashed in tickets. I stumbled across the pops&tips method(where?? of course, Ebay!) and bought it because it was an older methodology and it seemed to have credibility. To be honest, it HAS been the most profitable method that i have used. After I received the manual, It had the flier for the software, but it seemed a little high priced. So I did a little research on this site and it seemed there were alot of bugs to be worked out. Yes, it is time consuming to find good plays, but I too have found a small number of tips that I use to cut it down. The kerplunk angle was very profitable at Gulfstream last winter. I also use most of the major tips from TOOII. LWC/Jswitch is another tip that is key. Just as it says in the manual, each player has to adapt the tips to his/her style and I totally agree with that. I do have one question though. How important are the POPS in todays handicapping?

ogredad · 10-10-2009, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barnes99

Hi guys, this is my first post so i hope i did it right. I'm 30 and have been been playing the races off and on since i was 13. I won my first quinella at eureka downs with my grandpa. Since then i've played when i could find time. And I will be the first to admit, I have wasted more money on tipsters, methods, and books than I've cashed in tickets. I stumbled across the pops&tips method(where?? of course, Ebay!) and bought it because it was an older methodology and it seemed to have credibility. To be honest, it HAS been the most profitable method that i have used. After I received the manual, It had the flier for the software, but it seemed a little high priced. So I did a little research on this site and it seemed there were alot of bugs to be worked out. Yes, it is time consuming to find good plays, but I too have found a small number of tips that I use to cut it down. The kerplunk angle was very profitable at Gulfstream last winter. I also use most of the major tips from TOOII. LWC/Jswitch is another tip that is key. Just as it says in the manual, each player has to adapt the tips to his/her style and I totally agree with that. I do have one question though. How important are the POPS in todays handicapping?

I'm so glad you posted. I'm a new poster myself. My hope was to inspire the users of the Tips program to start posting again. I was starting to doubt I'd ever see another post re: Pops and Tips. As you can see, no one has yet responded to my last message.

As for the Pops part: I don't see many winning horses with Earl's traditional Pops pattern; i.e: descending numbers leading up to a win. What I DO notice is; many of the winners may have very low odds in last couple of races down to the smallest amount that also show the BF* sign. The problem [as with the FH Tip] is; many of the other contenders may also have these same numbers.

Go back and check ALL winners and you will notice that a good majority of them will show odds below 6 in their last few races [I call this my "Rule of 5"]

I've also noticed that a fair number of big payoff winners will show an Odds pattern similar to this: 40, 38, 42, 14. Notice the BIG DROP last race. [I mark these as +50 off] Someone knew something or why else would the Odds take a sudden BIG DROP? The horse's last finish can even be weak and still show the drop.
So, he might not have even won that last race BUT today he wins at medium to long odds. Watch for these and let me know whether you agree or not.

Many times I've noticed horses whose last 3-5 odds never went below 6-7 and they do not win today. Then I check the winner of today's race and Bingo! His odds drop below 6 or 7.

I've also seen winners who were the only ones showing a Pop, esp. the LOL [Lowest Odds last race] In one particular race there were only two Pop horses [I mentioned this to Tom Worth many years ago] and they ran 1st and 2nd [but this is extremely rare to my knowledge]

In some races you can eliminate many horses on their pitiful high odds alone. Sometimes the winner is even a Stickout on Odds and current form and still pays well!

Would you please explain what TOOll signifies? I don't recall seeing this in the manual or the 2008 Tips update.

I hope this info helps.
Looking forward to your reply,
Bob

barnes99 · 10-11-2009, 07:54 PM

Bob, thanks for the feedback. I agree with your assessment of the POPS in relation to winners. In my record keeping(which needs some attention) I couldn't draw a consistent conclusion that they were effective. I do also agree that in the few races that i found only one horse with a pop, That horse won almost every time, but at short prices. In reference to TOOII, it is Tom Worth's The Only One II spot play method for maidens. His son Jon and another guy tweeked Tom's original The Only One method and hence the II part. It's been a while since I played the races. I plan on hitting the breeder's cup. Any special ways to aproach breeder's cup races? If any thoughts I would be greatly interested. Enjoy chatting ya, and thanks again for your input and ideas. Jeremy

ogredad · 10-11-2009, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barnes99

Bob, thanks for the feedback. I agree with your assessment of the POPS in relation to winners. In my record keeping(which needs some attention) I couldn't draw a consistent conclusion that they were effective. I do also agree that in the few races that i found only one horse with a pop, That horse won almost every time, but at short prices. In reference to TOOII, it is Tom Worth's The Only One II spot play method for maidens. His son Jon and another guy tweeked Tom's original The Only One method and hence the II part. It's been a while since I played the races. I plan on hitting the breeder's cup. Any special ways to aproach breeder's cup races? If any thoughts I would be greatly interested. Enjoy chatting ya, and thanks again for your input and ideas. Jeremy

Hello Jeremy,

I may have ordered this from Jon Worth. I think I shied away from it due to too few plays [and the DRF now up to $7.00]!

I have no advice re: The Breeders Cup. I stick mostly to cheap claimers [which is where Tips is supposed to excel at]

This has confused me as some of the examples given in the Pops and Tips original material showed Tips plays at [of all places] Saratoga! Try and figure that out!

You mentioned getting your copy on eBay. Is it the newer version with yellow
front/back pages and spiral bound with black plastic? Do you know the copyright date?

When I originally bought mine it consisted of many different colored pages which were just stapled together. This was in the 80's. About ten years ago I quit and instructed my wife to throw out everything that was racing related, ouch! But here I am again. Handicapping horses is a tough habit to break!

I had corresponded with Tom Worth [deceased] a couple of times. He was a very nice man who showed real interest in my endeavor to win at this game.
I wish I would have kept his correspondence.

He always signed off with:
"Yours in Sport"
Tom Worth

That goes "ditto" for me Jeremy.
Bob

ogredad · 10-13-2009, 08:44 PM

Can someone out there tell me what SigTrips are? I realize this may be proprietary info but since I already have a good amount of money invested
in the many Tips materials I figured it wouldn't hurt to ask.

Bob

goforgin · 10-13-2009, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ogredad

Can someone out there tell me what SigTrips are?
Bob

High Earnings per Start (HiEPS) + High True Class Figure (HiTCF) + Brown 100 Score = Significant Triple. I use the software program, so not exactly sure how these numbers are calculated. The program says they are calculated based on "1# career" and/or "2# previous year only" and/or "3# current year & previous year" and/or "4# current surface". Personally I use SIGTRIP as a secondary TIP. I like to hook it up with one of my primary TIPS such as the B-100 & B-TOP combo, HWO+, PACE or QBF.

John · 10-13-2009, 09:40 PM

Earnings per start & True class figures & Brown 100score. Its worth 3 points.

rokitman · 10-13-2009, 10:58 PM

Congratulations to Pops & Tips on 1000 posts. Wish you many more, and much happiness

ogredad · 10-14-2009, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goforgin

High Earnings per Start (HiEPS) + High True Class Figure (HiTCF) + Brown 100 Score = Significant Triple. I use the software program, so not exactly sure how these numbers are calculated. The program says they are calculated based on "1# career" and/or "2# previous year only" and/or "3# current year & previous year" and/or "4# current surface". Personally I use SIGTRIP as a secondary TIP. I like to hook it up with one of my primary TIPS such as the B-100 & B-TOP combo, HWO+, PACE or QBF.

Wow! This is quite a bit of work computing all this info without the program.
I wonder if Jon Worth has ALL the Tips PC info on paper? If not, I may be requesting more info in the near future [if that's Ok with you guys]

What a coincidence that you both posted this info at exactly the same time.

goforgin: I want to be the first to congratulate you on crossing the Rubicon!

[I hope the attachment shows up]

<a href="http://s284.photobucket.com/albums/ll16/amosmcabe/?action=view&current=1-Rubicon.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/ll16/amosmcabe/1-Rubicon.png" border="0" alt="Rubicon"></a>

rwryley · 12-29-2009, 09:17 PM

Is Version 6.0 still the most recent version of Toms Worth's TIPS software?

dartman51 · 12-29-2009, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwryley

Is Version 6.0 still the most recent version of Toms Worth's TIPS software?

Yes. There MAY be an upgrade after the first of the year. Len hinted at it before he took time out to work on some paying projects.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!

slogancg · 12-30-2009, 07:11 PM

I have been trying to read and apply Pop&Tips to my handicapping for the last year with good results. I have been comparing my contenders that I find along with Handi's program and then place my bets. So far,so good. I have not gotten the Tips software yet, but hopefully soon. Just wanted to let you know someone else was using Pops&Tips to find the contenders in the races.
slogancg