POPS&TIPS

[InFront]

Originally Posted by LEN C

Isn't that what the program already does, and with the test option available any day now, also what you are proposing to do yourself?

So with this update that everyone is waiting for it will have database capabilities? That is you can import data files into it and then query each tip against whatever size database you imported and it will return the # of plays, win% and roi% of each tips angle you backtest? If so then that would be a very useful update since any user can now have something to go by on which weights they will assign each angle not by guessing or gut feelings but by sound database querying.

[LEN C]

Originally Posted by InFront

So with this update that everyone is waiting for it will have database capabilities? That is you can import data files into it and then query each tip against whatever size database you imported and it will return the # of plays, win% and roi% of each tips angle you backtest? If so then that would be a very useful update since any user can now have something to go by on which weights they will assign each angle not by guessing or gut feelings but by sound database querying.

Actually, everybody is not waiting for it. About half a dozen folks are interested.

What the program will do is BOTH cut a comma-delimited file with pretty much everything on the screen, PLUS populate a Microsoft Access data base with the same info. Just by pressing a button.

Your responsibility will be to enter a half dozen results fields per record.

The data base will have hundreds of pre-done queries and reports. You are welcome to add any new ones you wish.

It will also come populated with several thousand (I believe 12,000+) horse-records, already with results in them.

You can customize this, to say, concentrate on a favorite track, by populating it with more records for said track.

This will by ready by Thursday or Friday. The half dozen that have expressed interest will be personally contacted.

[Old Gray Mare]

Originally Posted by dartman51

I don't know how anyone else looks at the BONUS BOX picks, but I take a 2nd look at what TIPS they have. If they have enough STRONG TIPS, and that is based on MY research, I will consider them, depending on the odds. ML of 15-1 or less, W & P and over and under in the exotics. ML above 15-1, but still with enough STRONG TIPS, P & S and under in the exotics. At the same tracks as GOGORGIN, I came up with the following.

AQU
5> #8 (12-1)
7> #8 (15-1)
8> #9 (12-1)

TAM
1> #11 (30-1)
7> #1A (8-1)
11> #1 (8-1)

TP
2> #6 (10-1)
4> #6 (10-1)
12> #8 (8-1)

There were 2 bonus box selection at OP 4/3/09. Race #1 -Horse #6 Paid 94.20, 25.20, 14.20 and Race #4 Horse #10 Paid 32.60, 17.80, 17.80. The #6 was top 3 Total and .5 from the 2 tied top Tips. The #10 was the top Total and tied for second in top Tips. No value adjustments made. Unusual but useful situation

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by Old Gray Mare

There were 2 bonus box selection at OP 4/3/09. Race #1 -Horse #6 Paid 94.20, 25.20, 14.20 and Race #4 Horse #10 Paid 32.60, 17.80, 17.80. The #6 was top 3 Total and .5 from the 2 tied top Tips. The #10 was the top Total and tied for second in top Tips. No value adjustments made. Unusual but useful situation

Nice going OGM. I didn't play OP yesterday, but I did have 6 of 8 on top @ GG incl. 3 DD's 2 P3's and a P4. The other 2 finished 3rd.
An added plus for the 10 in the 4th @ OP, he was TOP CHART-EARN. And in the 1st race, Lynn Whiting shows a pos, ROI with horses going from route to sprint.

Again, NICE GOING!!

[artbaker]

At Keeneland, Race 8 today, War Kill. Same profile I've been promoting all year. Grade 2 race. Ken McPeek is the trainer. WSWP and TT and TT/TJ. 9/2 morning odds. Sure to be there at the top of the stretch--in every race.

Winner paid, 35.40. I made this a 200 per cent overlay.

[goforgin]

Originally Posted by artbaker

At Keeneland, Race 8 today, War Kill. Same profile I've been promoting all year. Grade 2 race. Ken McPeek is the trainer. WSWP and TT and TT/TJ. 9/2 morning odds. Sure to be there at the top of the stretch--in every race.
Winner paid, 35.40. I made this a 200 per cent overlay.

Art, nice hit. I'm keeping an I out for this profile. Appreciate your comments.

[dartman51]

Art,
Nice hit. I assume that you scan the program for certain TIPS and TIP patterns, ie: TIPS that show up together, that have proven profitable. Have you adjusted any of the numbers to help point this out, or do you scour every race and every horse??

[artbaker]

I don't pay all that much attention to the "Program selections." Long ago, I adjusted TIP values but I've not been satisfied with using quantitative totals to make selections. For my major wagers, I'm looking for overlays primarily on speed horses in sprints up to and including 7 furlongs with high quality trainers. The WSWP and the FH+/NSL are good beginning points for looking for overlay wagers.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by artbaker

I don't pay all that much attention to the "Program selections." Long ago, I adjusted TIP values but I've not been satisfied with using quantitative totals to make selections. For my major wagers, I'm looking for overlays primarily on speed horses in sprints up to and including 7 furlongs with high quality trainers. The WSWP and the FH+/NSL are good beginning points for looking for overlay wagers.

Thanks Art. I think that is what is so good about TIPS. Different people can use it in different ways. I took 1 month and several different tracks and cut a test file. Then I deleted all non winning horses. Then I deleted all horses paying less than 4-1. Then I studied the TIPS that the winners had in common, and adjusted points accordingly. While I don't play all the horses that show up in the suggested WIN, EXACTA, TRIFECTA or BONUS BOX. these are the horses that I take a longer look at. I like to play the rolling p3's using the horses in the EXACTA BOX. At GP yesterday, I hit the last 2 p3's and the late p4 using only those horses. I believe you have to TRUST your adjustments and NEVER stop your research, if you really want to make money with this. The $1 p4 ticket, 3+3+3+2 cost $54 and returned $1412.40. the 2 p3'S paid $303.40 and $470.20. If only every day could be like that.

[artbaker]

Now you're talking. This is what a "serious player" who wants to win does; this is how he behaves. He does research; he trusts the research (when the sample is sufficietly large); and he continues to be open to new data. There are many ways to proceed and no one way should ever be locked in as "the only way." Moreover, each player must establish his own comfort level (and fear zone). One ought to wager on what one understands. Of course, making profits is never a straight line. The real test comes when the inevitable losing streak arises. Will you trust your numbers when you lose 10 or 15 races races in a row? My life as a bettor changed about 15 years ago when I had lost 17 races in a row wagering a "fair piece" to win on each horse. On the 18th race, my methodology said "go" on a horse that was sitting at 30-1 near post time. I was down about $4,000 for the week. I was seriously questioning myself and all the time I was investing in handicapping. I was talking myself off the horse and perhaps off handicapping all together. Somehow, I meekly forced myself to the window and made the wager. There was a photo finish and an inquiry. My horse was put first but the other ride also claimed foul. After what seemed like an eternity, the foul was not allowed and I cashed a $78.60 win ticket that almost doubled what I had lost.
The moral of the story should be clear. Had I walked away and not made the wager...

[JimG]

Art,

If your horse had been dq'd, what do you honestly think you would have done on your next bet?

Jim

[dartman51]

The BONUS BOX just struck at GP @ 60-1. 30-1 on the morning line so I DID NOT bet to win, but a small place and show was nice.

[JimG]

Originally Posted by dartman51

The BONUS BOX just struck at GP @ 60-1. 30-1 on the morning line so I DID NOT bet to win, but a small place and show was nice.

Why would a 30-1 ml keep you from betting to win? That should encourage you. Congrats on what you did pick up. It was interesting to see a screen shot. Looks like 4 horses were listed as potential bets if I read it right.

Jim

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by JimG

Why would a 30-1 ml keep you from betting to win? That should encourage you. Congrats on what you did pick up. It was interesting to see a screen shot. Looks like 4 horses were listed as potential bets if I read it right.

Jim

Jim
Just a guideline of mine. From my experience, and research, horses that are over 15-1 on the morning line, don't win often enough to be profitable. I think Art's cut off is 12-1. Different people I know, have different cut offs. Not only that, in this case, the horse did not have enough positives for me. I only use the horses, pointed out on the screen, as a starting point.

[sligg]

Originally Posted by artbaker

I don't pay all that much attention to the "Program selections." Long ago, I adjusted TIP values but I've not been satisfied with using quantitative totals to make selections. For my major wagers, I'm looking for overlays primarily on speed horses in sprints up to and including 7 furlongs with high quality trainers. The WSWP and the FH+/NSL are good beginning points for looking for overlay wagers.

I remember your contributions to the Tips Report back in the 1980's.

I would like to know if you are currently using Len's Tips software?