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05-01-2021, 11:17 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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HONG KONG SHA TIN SUN- 5/2
Good evening to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Ill be posting my pre-race selections for this very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 11 races at Sha Tin with All races on the Turf.
Post Time Race #1 12:30 AM SUN EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis have come up with my preliminary picks for each race. However, Ill be only posting live selections this morning because the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these entries and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. A few of the races this morning look wide open!
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.
For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Wait until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).
Good Luck if youre playing!
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05-02-2021, 12:25 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Preliminary Selections
Preliminary Selections for ALL 11 races:
R#1-1000M C6 (5F)T
.............5-9-1 W/ 8-6-2
R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T
.
..1-6-11 W/ 5-3-12
R#3 2000M C5 (10F)T
..........1-4-2 W/ 6-5-10
R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..
.12-9-1 W/ 4-3-8
R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T
..
..
.3-7-11 W/ 14-1-6
R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T
6-10-13 W/ 2-4-7
R#7 2400M GR3 (12F)T
2-6-10 W/ 7-11-12
R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T
4-1-7 W/ 10-6-3
R#9- 1800M C3 (9F)T
2-3-8- W/ 6-10-11
R#10-1200M C3 (6F)T
..
1-8-11 W/ 6-3-4
R#11-1400M C3 (7F)T
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1-9-2 W/ 10-8-6
Live Video:
https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/...=livestreaming
Live W/P & QUIN Tote Activities:
https://bet.hkjc.com/racing/pages/od...ue=ST&raceno=1
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05-02-2021, 12:33 AM
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#3
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Muddy
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Mi.
Posts: 2,654
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94-1 winner bombs away
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05-02-2021, 12:37 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
R#1-1000M C6 (5F)T….............5-9-1 W/ 8-6-2
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7-1-9-6– Dutch LOSS 0% Profit Margin - PASSED / No-action on the Huge LS Winner #7 at 108/1!!!!/
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05-02-2021, 12:58 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE--- R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T……1-6-4 W/ 5-11-12
Last edited by Nitro; 05-02-2021 at 01:00 AM.
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05-02-2021, 01:00 AM
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#6
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Muddy
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Mi.
Posts: 2,654
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Scratched
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05-02-2021, 01:08 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE--- R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T……1-6-4 W/ 5-11-12
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6-4-8-14– Dutch WIN 74% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $82.40 Quinella
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05-02-2021, 01:29 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE---R#3 2000M C5 (10F)T
.....1-4-2 W/ 10-5-6
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05-02-2021, 01:39 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE---R#3 2000M C5 (10F)T
.....1-4-2 W/ 10-5-6
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6-12-5-8 Dutch LOSS 197% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Some decent action on the Placer #12 /
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05-02-2021, 01:58 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE---R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..12-9-1 W/ 4-14-8
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05-02-2021, 02:08 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE---R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..12-9-1 W/ 4-14-8
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2-4-12-9 Dutch LOSS 65% Profit Margin - PLAYED / A bit of early action on the LS Winner #2 /
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05-02-2021, 02:28 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE--- R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T
.3-7-6 W/ 14-1-9
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05-02-2021, 02:41 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE--- R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T
.3-7-6 W/ 14-1-9
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3-6/12-4 Dutch WIN 70% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $10.30 Quinella / A DH for the Place killed the Quinella
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05-02-2021, 02:59 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE---R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T
6-10-4 W/ 2-7-13
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05-02-2021, 03:09 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE---R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T
6-10-4 W/ 2-7-13
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5-3-12-7 Dutch LOSS 47% Profit Margin - PASSED / Some early action on the Big LS Winner #5 /
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