Betting harness is hopeless - Page 6 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

traynor · 03-22-2013, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kuusinen27

I bet harness racing for years, owned horses up until 2006 but finally
got tired of how futile it is. I now bet thoroughbred instead because it
is too much for me to deal with being disappointed by both horses and
also drivers. I don't know about thoroughbred but in all my years being
around harness racing I never met anyone coming out ahead overall. I
like to look at peoples picks on the forum and check to see how they did
and the majority of the time they do not do well. I am not slamming
the pickers, it is the nature of the beast, you cannot come out ahead.
Today I am bored, my wifes home from work so I escape to my
computer and turn on my Twinspires. Terrible thoroughbred tracks on
Tuesdays so I click on Meadows. I haven't bet harness for a few years
and want something to watch and bet. Ron Burke has an entry in the
eighth with Palone driving part of the entry and has the one hole at
even money. I'm just killing time not going after money so I play $5.00
to place in a weak field timewise, almost no way one of his horses can't
run second. You know the end of the story and I know why I do not
follow harness racing anymore.

One of the things that has changed most in harness racing is that more people recognize improving horses. It is not rocket science--especially for anyone who understands the training side of racing, and how horses are trained to peak in specific races, through progressive training efforts.

Well, so what? The easy picks are ground down to chalk. Well, so what? No one ever said it would be easy. The days of quickie picks that pay $7-8 and win 35-40% of their races may be gone forever. It's like my friend Slick used to say about heat on the street--its good for business because it keeps the rookies out of the game.

It is not as easy to make money betting on harness races today as it was 20-30 years ago. All that means to me is that in order to profit, one has to outthink, outmaneuver, and outsmart the competition. Not much new in that.

mrroyboy · 03-22-2013, 05:41 PM

Tray that is the ultimate truth. Those who work hardest usually do well in anything.

badcompany · 03-22-2013, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrroyboy

Tray that is the ultimate truth. Those who work hardest usually do well in anything.

The issue then becomes one of Opportunity Cost, as the time spent pouring over PPs could be devoted to something else.

For me, there's a small window during NYSS season when I can be consistently profitable. Knocking my brains out the rest of the year trying to beat a cheap claimer game with an inflated takeout just isn't worth the time or effort.

traynor · 03-22-2013, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badcompany

The issue then becomes one of Opportunity Cost, as the time spent pouring over PPs could be devoted to something else.

For me, there's a small window during NYSS season when I can be consistently profitable. Knocking my brains out the rest of the year trying to beat a cheap claimer game with an inflated takeout just isn't worth the time or effort.

That depends. I don't spend a whole lot of time poring over the PPs, because I have reverse-engineered what I would do into a computer app that does most of the "heavy lifting." I spend a lot of time researching, looking for patterns in results, and building wagering models. Most of that is programming, and I really like to program, so it isn't much of a chore.

However, I wholeheartedly agree that it is most useful to pick your spots and lay into them, rather than chasing "action." My OCD is not strong enough to do the 20 tracks a day, every day, week in and week out. I get bored way too easily for that. If anything is a model, it is Beyer's "total immersion" (for example) at the winter meet at Gulfstream (or whatever track). That seems to work the best for me. I don't get much "psychic reward" from betting--it is like playing Monopoly, with wins and losses little more than a way to keep score.

I don't have much awe for money. I like to have it, but it is like most other things--a tool that is only really useful when it is being used. I don't find much difference emotionally between betting a small amount and betting a large amount. I think anyone who does is way too impressed with money, or has spent too much of their lives pinching pennies and chasing nickles. I would much rather go full blast for a period of time and then go bow hunting or something completely different, way away from racetracks and casinos. With the "excitement" removed from wagering, racetracks and casinos are two of the most boring places in existence.

Sinner369 · 03-22-2013, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by traynor

That does NOT mean that other methods do not exist. And as far as the ratio of harness books to thoroughbred books, I think that might be more an issue of writers pandering to a readership grasping at straws and willing to buy almost anything that promises a few winners.

I bought Kusyshyn's Harness Professional Point Count for $200 back in the 1980s and won consistently with it for quite awhile. He wrote Harness Gold as a watered down version to market the HPPC. If you don't recognize the name, Kusyshyn is a tenured professor in math and computer science at York University in Ontario (or was, he could be dead for all I know), and also developed the Hi-Opt II blackjack method that was (and still is) a favorite of more than a few professional blackjack players.

Various others have developed and marketed equivalent material for harness races since then. The useful ones are generally pricey, with a limited distribution. I didn't stop using Kusyshyn's HPPC because it "stopped working"--I stopped using it because I was introduced to serious trip handicapping as a "replacement." As far as I know, it is still useful, although probably not as profitable as it was at the time.

Traynor, I also have Professor Kusyshyn's Harness Gold............but the author that influenced me the most was Al Stanley's book..........called Stanley's Law.......it was the first book on Harness Racing that made sense to me.........I have used his methods (with updated changes for the last 20 years)..........and it still works!

traynor · 03-23-2013, 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sinner369

Traynor, I also have Professor Kusyshyn's Harness Gold............but the author that influenced me the most was Al Stanley's book..........called Stanley's Law.......it was the first book on Harness Racing that made sense to me.........I have used his methods (with updated changes for the last 20 years)..........and it still works!

I might have it wrong, but wasn't he the clocker from Windsor? Used to work at the Ford plant there? I don't remember the specifics of the method he used, but I will have to look into it. Thanks for the tip.

LottaKash · 03-23-2013, 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by traynor

I might have it wrong, but wasn't he the clocker from Windsor? Used to work at the Ford plant there? I don't remember the specifics of the method he used, but I will have to look into it. Thanks for the tip.

That is correct Traynor....In fact in some of Al Stanley's early work, he delved into the how to of Clocking the Harness...

Way back when, I was to a seminar in Toronto, and another in NJ....The guy left me with an impression and a good foundation for growing and evtually finding "my own way"....

He was (is?) the real deal, imo....

I have all of his books, and mostly all of his monthly newsletters....I review them from time to time, for inspiration you know....And much of his handicapping truisms and logic still stand the test(s) of time....

Sinner369 · 03-23-2013, 01:11 AM

If any of you are interested in Al's newsletter here is the site where you can download and read his methodologies!

http://www.handicappingharness.com/al-stanley-sunday/

Lottakash........I believe Al passed away a few year's ago.........!

LottaKash · 03-23-2013, 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sinner369

Lottakash........I believe Al passed away a few year's ago.........!

That's too bad, about the passing...But, then again, we're all just passing thru...

Imo, if there was ever to be a "Hall of Fame for Handicappers"...Al Stanley would be up at the top of the stature hierarchy....Thru the years I had met many another player who was influenced by A.S. and his ways....Some were very good, some remained losers, but mostly the ones who were the break even types or at worst sane enough gamblers, enjoyed the game all the more because of that influence....I would be counted among that number...

His models for identifying formful running lines still remain at the heart of my own personal methodologies, even today, alongside with all my cute little hard earned tricks....

Sea Biscuit · 03-23-2013, 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sinner369

Lottakash........I believe Al passed away a few year's ago.........!

Not true Sinner. Al is still alive and well.

Just spoke to him on the phone. Had a nice 10 minute chat with him.He said he was 75 years old but doesn't sell anything anymore.

He, however, still plays the Woodbine/Mohawk tracks.

Sinner369 · 03-23-2013, 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit

Not true Sinner. Al is still alive and well.

Just spoke to him on the phone. Had a nice 10 minute chat with him.He said he was 75 years old but doesn't sell anything anymore.

He, however, still plays the Woodbine/Mohawk tracks.

I stand corrected....thought I read somewhere that he was gone!

Sea Biscuit · 03-23-2013, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sinner369

I stand corrected....thought I read somewhere that he was gone!

Thats OK Sinner. Mistakes happen.

Dan Nance once posted on his forum that I was dead.

pandy · 03-23-2013, 09:33 AM

I like Al Stanley's stuff, top notch.

traynor · 03-23-2013, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sinner369

If any of you are interested in Al's newsletter here is the site where you can download and read his methodologies!

http://www.handicappingharness.com/al-stanley-sunday/

Lottakash........I believe Al passed away a few year's ago.........!

I think anyone interested in wagering on harness races who does NOT take advantage of this opportunity is doing himself (or herself) a great disservice. The thing that seems to elude many of the "latest, greatest idea since sliced bread" crowd is that there are bettors who have been using methods quite successfully for many years. The reason they don't change them regularly is because they work, and continue to work. Unlike Al Stanley, however, most of those who have developed successful methodologies strongly prefer not to tell everyone else how they do it.

Thanks for posting the link! This is great material for anyone serious about wagering on harness races.

beaucap · 03-23-2013, 10:21 AM

Self-discipline

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